A further step has been taken in recent days in the intensification of violence between the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Israeli army, to the point of raising fears of an open war between the Hebrew State and the Shiite political-military movement.

Since the start in October of the war between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Hezbollah, the two enemies have exchanged daily fire on the Israeli-Lebanese border. At least 346 people were killed in Lebanon – mostly Hezbollah fighters, but also at least 68 civilians – in these clashes, according to a count carried out by AFP on March 27. On the Israeli side, according to the army, ten soldiers and eight civilians were killed by projectiles sent from Lebanese territory.

In addition to the heavy human toll, this violence also displaced thousands of residents in southern Lebanon, but also in northern Israel. “The situation is very tense,” comments Franco-Lebanese researcher and political scientist Ziad Majed, professor and director of the Middle East studies program at the American University of Paris, on France 24. "Some 100,000 Lebanese are internally displaced. Sometimes they come back, then they have to leave again."

On the Israeli side, populations from localities neighboring the border were also sheltered. “The northern Galilee [region of northern Israel located on the border with Lebanon, Editor's note] has become a sort of 'no-go zone' for Israeli citizens,” explains Didier Leroy, specialist in Lebanese Hezbollah, and researcher. at the Royal Belgian Defense Institute and the Free University of Brussels (ULB).

An Israeli inspects a house hit by a Hezbollah rocket in Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel, March 27, 2024. © Jalaa Marey, AFP

Hezbollah’s “strategic restraint”

In reaction to Hezbollah fire, which mainly targets Israeli military positions and localities close to the border, Israel is bombarding Lebanese territory more and more deeply, as on March 24 in Baalbek, a town in eastern Lebanon, distant almost 100 kilometers from the Israeli border.

The Jewish state is also increasing targeted attacks against Hezbollah and Hamas officials, such as the one that took place on Friday in the Bazouriyé region, in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army announced that it had killed a senior military officer. of the Shiite party. The pro-Iranian movement did not immediately comment on the attack but said it had fired in the morning on Israeli military positions on the border between the two countries.

If several Hezbollah officials have affirmed that their fighters would respond with "more intensity" and "decisively to each Israeli attack", so far, on the ground, the response of Hassan Nasrallah's party remains measured.

“The operations carried out by Hezbollah are marked by a certain strategic restraint, respecting as much as possible the famous rules of engagement – ​​which are tacit rules – of the blue line [drawn by the UN between Lebanon and Israel , Editor's note] since the end of the 33-day war in 2006", notes Didier Leroy. The specialist notes "much more audacity" on the part of the Israelis, who "dare to cross red lines" with "deep strikes".

For the researcher, the escalation is mainly Israeli and Hezbollah responds "always below the threshold of the red lines that must not be crossed, remaining above all in a perspective which consists of targeting military infrastructures in the north of the Galilee".

Read alsoAssassination of Hamas number 2: challenged in its stronghold, Hezbollah faces a difficult choice

Experts explain the relative moderation of the actions of the "party of God" by the situation of economic, political and social crisis in which Lebanon is plunged. "It seems that there is no interest [for Hezbollah, editor's note] in entering into a war because that would only aggravate the catastrophic situation in which the country finds itself. Which would not be desirable. advantage of Hezbollah", argued Olivier Passot, general and associated researcher at the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Irsem), at the beginning of March on France 24.

"The Israelis have the perception or the conviction that Hezbollah does not want to escalate. And it is undoubtedly this perception which gives them a certain confidence to strike beyond the border zone, to go further far and to enter into a strategy of attrition. They decided to attack objectives that they had developed for years, but which they had refrained from striking until then", comments General Olivier Passot.

A probable network of large tunnels

But if Hezbollah continues to turn a deaf ear to the threats of its declared enemy, contenting itself with responding at a minimum, in the shadows, Tehran's powerful ally is undoubtedly trying to "buy time", warns Didier Leroy. Behind the scenes, the political-military movement is said to be "accelerating the strengthening of its infrastructure, including underground infrastructure, and continuing to refine all its logistics with a view to open war."

"Since 2006, there has been no open conflict with the Tsahal [the Israeli army, editor's note]. However, Hezbollah has not idly idly. Its arsenal has continued to expand and expand. become more sophisticated", indicates Didier Leroy. While it is complicated to have a precise idea of ​​its strike force, the most credible estimates, by cross-checking sources, indicate Russian tanks, thousands of Iranian drones, mobile anti-aircraft systems and more than 130,000 projectiles – rockets and missiles – at more or less long distances, Omri Brinner, Middle East specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona, told France 24 in February, an international collective of experts on the issues international security.

Also read: Hezbollah, how many divisions?

The Israeli army estimates that "50% of Hezbollah projectiles have a range of less than 15 kilometers [i.e. rockets and shells, Editor's note], 40% can hit targets up to 30 kilometers away and only 5 to 10% would be long-range missiles", according to Omri Brinner. Enough, in theory, to hit any civilian or military target from Lebanon as far as Eilat, a seaside resort in southern Israel. So much data that worries the Jewish state.

“And given the magnitude of what has been discovered in the Gaza Strip, we can suspect that there is also a real underground city which has taken shape below Lebanese territory with a network of large tunnels,” warns Didier Leroy. Experts fear an underground grid on the scale of Lebanon with tunnels crossing the entire country to below the Galilee, also linking South Lebanon to the southern suburbs of Beirut, and probably certain localities in the Bekaa plain until finding an exit on the Syrian side of the Syrian-Lebanese border.

An “inevitable” Israeli-Lebanese front?

The UN and its force in Lebanon – UNIFIL, created in 1978 – are concerned by the escalation of recent days and attacks on the blue line. They called for an immediate de-escalation on the border between Lebanon and Israel.

For his part, the spokesperson for the Israeli army, Daniel Hagari, quoted by L'Orient-Le Jour after Wednesday's military operations which left 16 Lebanese dead in exchanges of fire at the border, warned that " deep Lebanese territory would be transformed into a war zone. “When the [Israeli] army receives instructions from the political authorities to carry out a military operation in Lebanon, it will comply with them,” he added.

For the experts interviewed by France 24, everything suggests that a clash between the Israeli army and Hezbollah is "inevitable", as Didier Leroy believes. The Israeli perspective does not consist of multiplying the fronts, but it fears that as soon as the Israeli campaign is closed following the invasion of Rafah, the northern front on the Lebanese border will become the priority of the general staff Israeli. “And there, we will have a war of a much greater dimension given the robustness of Hezbollah compared to what the armed component of Hamas may be today,” warns the specialist.

“International envoys to Lebanon – French and American – are telling the current Lebanese government that Israel could prepare a major attack on Lebanon if negotiations [indirect through the UN on the Lebanese-Israeli border, editor's note] do not progress. not", warns Ziad Majed. The researcher refers to comments made by the head of French diplomacy Stéphane Séjourné during his visit to Beirut in early February. "He warned us that the Israelis could start a war [...] to bring home" the tens of thousands of residents evacuated from areas near the border with Lebanon, declared the Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdallah Bou Habib, following this meeting.

In the meantime, on both sides, the forces present are testing their weapons, in particular the Israeli Iron Dome interception device, which Hezbollah is trying to undermine by firing rockets in salvos. "The Iron Dome is very expensive and its projectile detection system is likely to be drowned out by simultaneous shots. Hezbollah is trying to use these shots as a temporary laboratory to see how it reacts depending on climatic conditions, terrain … On the other hand, with each attack, the IDF identifies Hezbollah launching pads,” explains Didier Leroy.

Israel is also trying to accelerate the deployment of a new anti-aircraft defense system, the "Iron Beam", which will fire laser beams with a range of ten kilometers and a power of 100 kW capable to pulverize opposing missiles. A technology that the Israeli Ministry of Defense is working on and a system much less expensive than the Iron Dome interceptor missiles, each unit of which costs several tens of thousands of dollars.

The France 24 summary of the week

invites you to look back at the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you! Download the France 24 application