China News Service, Beijing, March 5 (Reporter Xia Bin) "Some people believe that China may follow in the footsteps of Japan. I don't agree with this view." Member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University When Lin Yifu answered questions from China News Service reporters during the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, he hit back at some American scholars who advocated the "peak theory of China's economy" and regarded China as "the next Japan that will become farther and farther away from the U.S. economy."
Lin Yifu pointed out that in the early 1990s, many people talked about Japan's economy surpassing that of the United States. As a result, not only did it fail to surpass the United States, but the gap with the United States continued to widen.
He emphasized that the situation in Japan will not happen in China.
In the 1990s, Japan experienced an aging population and slowed economic growth.
Although China is also currently facing the challenge of aging, Lin Yifu pointed out that labor force is important for economic growth, but more important is effective labor, that is, the quantity of labor force multiplied by the quality of labor force.
From the perspective of China's population, it used to be a "quantity dividend", but now it is a "quality dividend."
According to his observation, in countries including China that are in the catching-up stage and are “getting old before they get rich”, their economic growth rate not only did not decrease in the 10 years before and after entering the aging of the population, but also increased.
Why can we achieve higher economic growth as we age?
Lin Yifu believes that in addition to the above-mentioned "talent dividend", countries that are in the catching-up stage and "get old before they get rich" have greater room for technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
The improved education level of the workforce newly entering the labor market also makes them more capable of mastering new technologies, leading to faster industrial upgrading and productivity improvements.
Lin Yifu also mentioned that Japan's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed that of the United States in the 1990s, and the industrial technology it represented was also at the forefront of the world. However, due to the suppression of American technology, Japan gave up the advanced industry of semiconductor chips.
China is on the same starting line as developed countries in most areas of the new economy and has advantages in talent, market and other aspects. Even if some technologies are slightly backward, China can use the new national system to engage in technological research and development and breakthroughs.
In terms of industrial policy support, Lin Yifu pointed out that after the 1980s, Japan believed that the government should not formulate industrial policies. As a result, its technological innovation and industrial upgrading stagnated, and its productivity level was also relatively stagnant.
"No developing country can catch up with developed countries without industrial policies, and no developed country can continue to maintain technological leadership without industrial policies." Lin Yifu said that China has been able to make breakthroughs in the field of new technologies in recent years, which is inseparable from the government's support. industrial policy.
He believes that China will continue to carry out technological innovation and industrial upgrading to continuously improve productivity levels. He also believes that new productive forces will continue to emerge. China's economy can maintain a relatively high growth rate and will not be like Japan.
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