Despite the post-New Year global turmoil around the Gulf countries, the topic of both the launch of the Turkish Stream and the delayed implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline still remains central not only in Russian and European, but also in the global media. And this, of course, is not accidental: the coming year, apparently, will be very turbulent for the energy sector of the western extremity of the giant Eurasian continent. And we, of course, are waiting for the next aggravation of the clash of geography and economic pragmatism, on the one hand, and even if it is already a slightly virtual, but still powerful political West, whose ideology has lately been based on the unconditional priority of Atlantism and carefully cultivated priorities of the Anglo-Saxon economies, with another. However, let's take it in order.
In the middle of last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin, along with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the company of Serb Alexander Vuchich and Bulgarian Boyko Borisov, as promised before Putin’s launch in December (this time together with Chinese President Xi Jinping) “Siberian Forces” "- in a festive atmosphere, commissioned the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. And this was actually the last stroke in the modern picture of the energy map of Eurasia in its current state. Where it all went: the launched Power of Siberia, and the Power of Siberia-2 project (the very western Chinese route, the Altai gas pipeline in girlhood), and the completed Northern and Turkish flows, which are in the final stages of development . And acquiring a different, purely regional significance, but so far still lively Ukrainian GTS. And temporarily suspended due to force majeure political circumstances, Nord Stream 2. Which, of course, will be completed within the next year, no one has any doubt about it: neither Putin, nor Frau Bundescan Chancellor Angela Merkel, who visited him here the other day, nor the most serious American politicians and experts. No, the Americans of the Eurasian energy sector (there is no doubt about it) will still drink pretty much. But it makes sense to regard the Nord Stream 2 as a rough reality advancing on the European end of the giant continent, even they are sure.
Everything is simple here. In general, in recent years, Russians have been accustomed to take their promises seriously, no matter what they may concern: even Syria, even new weapons systems, even global oil markets through OPEC + mechanisms, even LNG markets, where the Yamal distribution has already become quite a global factor. Although the construction of gas pipelines in China and Europe. Although Crimean, sorry for the reminder, the bridge. But this is all, so to speak, though very necessary in everyday life, but still lyrics. But in the light of our conversation today, it makes sense to look at the new energy map of the continent. And it seems to us that we need to start here from the simplest: that is, as a matter of fact, from Turkey.
It’s a painfully clear example. Just if only because when our opponents (mostly internal - external ones are still afraid to look so idiots) say like: “And what does Russia gain from this strange gas pipeline leading to the Balkan nowhere?”, The answer here is obvious and simple: First of all, Russia wins Turkey itself.
For a second, the region’s key economy.
Let's just see the numbers.
As you know, the throughput of the first, internal string of the Turkish Stream is 15.75 billion cubic meters, which fully goes to the needs of local energy markets. And now let's add to this the Blue Stream launched in 2003 with its 16 billion cubic meters. And (even funnier) we recall the recent quiet confession of Baku: the very “historically and specifically anti-Russian” TANAP gas pipeline (which we recall, with joyful pathos, Poroshenko proudly traveled) will be partially filled with Russian gas in the future. Which, in general, was open secret for professionals before: Azerbaijan simply does not have its own resource base to fill it, and the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline has not gone further than talking. And most likely it won’t work. And it’s not at all due to the “evil will of the Russians controlling the Caspian”, but because of a completely economic and banal reason: as soon as there is such an opportunity, none other than China buys Central Asian gas at its root.
Yes, although this is not so important.
Another thing is important: if we take into account at least Akkuyu NPP plus some volumes of oil and oil products going to the Turkish markets, the conclusion here is quite crude and extremely simple: on the medium-term horizon, Russia and Turkey intend to achieve a level of energy integration that is quite meets the standards of interaction with the EAEU states, if they do not exceed them.
And in the modern world, energy is the essence and foundation of any real economy. And it’s somehow very silly not to understand.
As a matter of fact, very similar processes are taking place now and “a little further along the line of the economic horizon”: the presence of Vučić and, quite obviously, the bite of Bulgarian Prime Minister Borisov biting all his elbows in a row (in fact, his country didn’t pay anything for treason then) Turkey at the presentation of the "Turkish stream" here looks absolutely logical. And on the face of Angela Merkel at a time when she was talking at a joint press conference with Putin about the problems and the urgent need for the completion of Nord Stream 2, her feelings for the Turkish anfan terribly of Europe were read quite clearly - as it was said in one old, but before still beloved among the people of the Soviet comedy film: "I should have been in his place."
Here, after all, what else is the matter: in fact, all these so different people, who are leading so different states, have one common task. For, of course, all these streams - northern, Turkish, even blue - can, of course, be considered individually. But it’s kind of silly not to notice that in the end they form a kind of unified energy ring with many hubs, and not only along the borders: the natural central Austrian hub with its underground gas storage facilities in the Alps and gas pipelines to the west and south of Europe should not be underestimated at least . Moreover, if you look at who is most suitable for the role of a kind of regulator, then Austria is here, maybe some people, sorry for the vernacular, more generally.
And this, in essence, means only one thing - the very progressive construction of a unified Eurasian energy platform, the need for which experts spoke so much a couple of decades ago: yes, it comes out to us somewhat different from what we had previously thought. But it turns out! And the tasks to build the "energy superpower", set as far back as zero by Putin, have still not been removed by anyone. And at the level of gas transport corridors in it, in this single platform, there is a place for everyone: even crazy in this sense in recent years Ukraine. Let its gas transportation system become a purely regional pipe (40 billion cubic meters per year of transit is 30–32 billion of actually Ukrainian consumption plus Moldova, which, except through Ukraine, not a single “stream” can reach). But in this situation, this is also, in general, the result.
And here is the most interesting part.
Right now, when the true scale of the tasks becomes obvious, it would be extremely naive to believe that now everything is going as it should and that geography, fortunately, has again defeated politics. Because the scale of the tasks always implies the scale of resistance to their implementation by competitors. And there is a feeling that this resistance may turn out to be so serious that all the current games around Nord Stream 2 against its background may seem like a child's play in the rat. Of course, this is not worth fearing: we will win anyway - you just need to prepare, and at the most practical level. And not like in the story with the same pipe layer, which was bought specifically for such a situation. And then they decided that it was economically more correct to send him to work on Sakhalin.
No, geography and common, pragmatic meaning, of course, all the same, sooner or later they will defeat media atlantist politics and Russophobia, which is bad in this respect. Everything is simple here: there are no alternatives, if only "we will go to heaven, and they will all die." It’s just somehow that we ourselves would like the actual winners (no fools here: the whole world saw this in the same broadcast of the Turkish Stream presentation from Istanbul) to understand the importance for us personally, and not for the European uncle factor time and price.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.