Zhongxin Finance, January 12 (Zuo Yukun) In 2018, Vanke, a leading real estate company, put forward the slogan of "survive", which was also considered to be unfounded worry for a good student.

Unexpectedly, the prudent "one family's words" have become the "collective anxiety" of the whole industry.

　　More than 80% of typical real estate companies have not completed the annual target of 2021, and "survival" has become the main proposition of the real estate industry.

Data map: Aerial photography of a new residential building.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Lv Ming

The goal was lost, and the top real estate companies fell apart one after another

　　According to data released by the real estate data platform Kerui, the target completion rate of the top 100 real estate companies in 2021 is far lower than that of the same period in history. Among the large-scale housing companies that disclosed annual performance targets, more than 80% have not achieved their goals.

　　This year, from the centralized land supply on the land side and the three red lines on the financing side, to the massive tightening on the mortgage side, regulation and control have staggered forward in the industry.

For housing companies, difficulties in sales, difficulty in collecting payments, declining profits, and even debt defaults, broken capital chains, layoffs and salary cuts have all become a straw on the camel's back.

　　According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, from the perspective of the 32 typical real estate companies that announced sales targets, Evergrande ranked at the bottom with a completion rate of only 61.5%.

Before the storm, Evergrande also handed in a transcript of 108.3% exceeding the target in 2020.

Beijing Capital Land ranked second last, only 68.3% of the target of 80 billion yuan.

　　Country Garden, Vanke and Sunac, the leading real estate companies in the top three in terms of sales throughout the year, did not perform very well either, with target completion rates of 88.9%, 78.5% and 93.4% respectively, all of which were not up to the standard, and ranked in the middle and late stages among the 32 real estate companies. Department location.

Image source: Middle Finger Research Institute

　　Vanke, which has not disclosed its sales target for many years, has rarely set a flag of 790 billion yuan in 2021.

This figure exceeded its sales performance in 2020 by 12%, but only 78.5% was finally completed, which directly brought Vanke, which has not yet established a firm foothold in the 700 billion+ camp, back to the ranks of 600 billion.

　　In November, an internal Vanke proposal circulated on the Internet. Vanke, which once shouted "survive", once again advocated "saving food and clothing" to create a "wartime atmosphere".

　　But this time, Vanke is no longer "alone".

In December, Lin Feng, CEO and executive director of CIFI Holdings Group, also issued a document saying: "The real estate has entered the Bronze Age, which is an Ice Age and Cambrian. We must prepare for a long winter."

The waist is strong, and small and medium-sized real estate companies enter the Shura field

　　It is embarrassing for a large number of companies to "return to bronze", and it also makes the real estate companies that have completed their sales targets more attractive.

　　Among the 32 real estate companies, only 6 real estate companies achieved their sales targets, namely Greentown China, Binjiang Group, Yuexiu Real Estate, Dafa Real Estate, Zhengrong Group and China Resources Land, all of which are large waist real estate companies.

Among them, Greentown China, Binjiang Group and Dafa Real Estate “submitted the papers ahead of schedule” and completed their annual targets in November.

　　The announcement shows that in 2021, Greentown will achieve sales of over 350.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 21%.

Binjiang Group's cumulative sales in 2021 reached 169.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%. The two target completion rates reached 113.2% and 112.8% respectively.

　　These two outstanding "top students" have the biggest thing in common is that they both belong to Zhejiang real estate companies.

Judging from the projects of the two in 2021, it is not difficult to find that the layout strategy focusing on Hangzhou is the key to the sales performance of the two real estate companies rising against the trend.

　　The booming real estate market in Hangzhou is still out of the independent market this year: the transaction volume of new houses is nearly 190,000, a new high in the past five years; the annual sales exceeded 620 billion yuan, breaking the record of 450 billion yuan in 2020 in one fell swoop.

　　Dafa Real Estate is the only real estate company whose sales target is less than 100 billion yuan.

The remaining five real estate companies that have not entered the "Hundred Billion Club" are Hongyang Real Estate, Yincheng International, Fantasia, Contemporary Real Estate, and Beijing Capital Land.

These five "difficult brothers and sisters" not only have the target completion rate not reaching the industry average, but also include 2 thunderstorm companies, namely Fantasia and Contemporary Properties.

　　Scale and funds, profits and liabilities, seem to have become a curse on small and medium-sized real estate companies.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that researching new market opportunities in the post-epidemic era is an important logic for small and medium-sized real estate companies to seek survival.

Data map: Real estate properties under construction.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

In the era of negative growth, what else can real estate companies do?

　　The above all prove that the real estate industry is facing a major reshuffle.

Once the "Biwanheng" top three pattern was broken with the addition of Sunac and Evergrande's falling behind, the threshold for the top three was gradually lowered.

　　According to data from the Middle Finger Research Institute, Country Garden, Vanke, and Sunac will rank the top three with cumulative sales of 758.82 billion yuan, 620.3 billion yuan and 597.6 billion yuan respectively in 2021, with a total of 1,976.7 billion yuan.

Compared with the sales of Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke in 2020, which reached 788.81 billion yuan, 703.8 billion yuan, and 701.1 billion yuan respectively, they have shrunk significantly.

　　The weakness of the "leader" also makes the change of the industry market expected.

　　According to CRIC's annual sales ranking released on December 31, the top 100 real estate companies' annual sales in 2021 totaled 11.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%.

The equity caliber of the top 100 real estate companies will total sales of 8.88 trillion yuan in 2021, a negative growth of 6% year-on-year.

　　The last time the real estate industry experienced a significant downward trend was back in 2008.

Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, believes that the real estate industry has bid farewell to the "Platinum Era" and entered the "Zero Growth Era".

　　Fortunately, the regulators have not turned a blind eye to the unfavorable situation in the development of the real estate industry, and have repeatedly released correction signals since September 2021.

From the central economic work conference to "better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers" and "promote a virtuous circle of the real estate industry", to the official reiteration of "real estate is a pillar industry", it is undoubtedly a boost to the discouraged industry.

　　This also makes the end of the year and the beginning of the year, which are the traditional winter break of the property market in previous years, there are still many ways to relax the supervision of pre-sale funds, subsidies for talent purchases, and the introduction of "drop-limiting orders". Major developers frequently promote products. .

　　It seems to indicate that the property market in 2022 will still not be ordinary.

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