China News Service, Shanghai, April 8 (Reporter Jiang Yu) Yu Xiangrong, chief economist of Citigroup Greater China, released an analysis report on the 8th saying that Citigroup has recently raised China's GDP growth forecast this year from the original 4.6% to 5%. , it is expected that China's full-year growth target can be achieved this year.
According to Yu Xiangrong's analysis, China has set a GDP growth target of "around 5.0%" this year. From the perspective of supporting policies, policy implementation and coordination since the beginning of the year have achieved remarkable results. For example, action plans have been formulated for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods and are expected to be implemented soon; fiscal expenditures in the first two months have completed 15.3% of the annual budget, the fastest expenditure progress in recent years; the government has optimized the business environment and promoted opening up to the outside world. Signals also tend to be strong.
"Since the beginning of this year, China's economic data has exceeded expectations more often than it has failed to meet expectations. The decline in real estate has begun to show signs of convergence, and a new round of stabilizing growth policies is accelerating the implementation." Yu Xiangrong said.
Specifically, first of all, the economy is off to a good start, with the export industry chain and industrial production picking up significantly. The manufacturing PMI in March reached a new high in six months. What is encouraging is that the small and medium-sized enterprise PMI returned to the expansion range for the first time in a year. Echoing official data, the Caixin manufacturing PMI in March also rose to the highest reading in 13 months, remaining above the boom-bust line for five consecutive months. At the same time, service industry activities remain on the recovery path, thanks to previous policy efforts and steady growth in manufacturing capital expenditures and infrastructure investment.
Secondly, the negative spiral of rapid decline in China's real estate that the market had worried about has not happened, and some real estate indicators are reaching bottom. For example, the decline in real estate investment from January to February this year narrowed slightly compared with last year; land transfer income was also the same as the same period last year. Since March, both the sales data of listed developers and the sales of second-hand houses in key cities monitored by Citi have rebounded from low levels, and the year-on-year decline has tended to converge.
Yu Xiangrong said: "The stabilization of real estate at low levels will not only alleviate its direct drag on the economy, but also help stabilize consumer confidence and release the purchasing power of the household sector." (End)