□ On December 14, 2023, Beijing and Shanghai adjusted and optimized real estate policies on the same day, which led to a certain spike in transaction volume in the Beijing property market at the end of the year, and also caused positive changes in the Shanghai property market.
□ In 2024, macro policies will continue to work to stabilize the economy, and the policy tone of “build first and then break” has also brought stronger optimization expectations to real estate policies.
On December 14, 2023, Beijing and Shanghai adjusted and optimized real estate policies on the same day, which led to a certain spike in transaction volume in Beijing's property market at the end of the year, and also caused positive changes in Shanghai's property market. Overall, the Beijing-Shanghai New Deal has significantly lowered the threshold and cost of home ownership for residents, which has a positive effect on home purchases and home exchanges, and the short-term boost effect is obvious.
According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, after the implementation of relevant policies in the Beijing area, from December 15 to December 31, 2023, 4,443 new housing units were sold in Beijing, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, and the average daily transaction volume was 261 units, compared with December 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023. The average daily growth rate on December 14 was 120%. Driven by factors such as the centralized online signing of some projects, the transaction volume in each week continued to rise month-on-month. Since 2024, the average weekly transaction volume of new homes in the first two weeks has been basically the same as the week before the New Deal.
Second-hand housing related data shows that in December 2023, 12,963 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing, which was basically the same as the 12,545 units in November before the implementation of the New Deal. Throughout 2023, 155,432 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing, exceeding the 141,000 units in 2022.
"Beijing's new policies have driven the real estate market's actual transaction volume to rise by about 20%," said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate.
Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at the Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that since the first-tier cities fully implemented the "recognizing a house but not a loan" in September 2023, the market has high expectations for the loosening of policies in first-tier cities. Beijing and Shanghai have successively loosened their home purchase policies, which is undoubtedly a sign of the trend. The market sent a major positive signal.
On January 30, Shanghai once again issued a major policy, stipulating that starting from January 31, non-Shanghai registered residents who have paid social insurance or personal income tax in Shanghai for 5 consecutive years or more can live outside the outer ring area ( Except for Chongming District), the purchase of one house is limited. "Previously, people who were not registered in Shanghai had to meet the '5-year social security + married' condition to purchase a house. Now the married condition has been cancelled." Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, said that areas outside Shanghai's outer ring account for about 60% of the city's housing. The volume of housing supply and transaction volume, as well as sufficient space for home purchase, can better meet the needs of relevant groups for purchasing their first home or newly needed home.
It is worth noting that for families who want to change houses, they must first sell their second-hand houses before they can replace them with new ones. There are currently close to 170,000 second-hand houses listed in Beijing. Looking at the overall situation, mid- to low-end houses are unsaleable. . Chen Wenjing, market research director of China Index Research Institute, believes that the number of second-hand housing listings is expected to be high in the short term, and there is still some downward pressure on second-hand housing prices. If optimization policies continue to be promoted, second-hand housing prices are also expected to gradually stabilize.
Data from the China Index Research Institute shows that from December 15 to December 31, 2023, 6,193 new residential units were sold in Shanghai, with an average daily transaction volume of 364 units, an average increase of 19% from December 1 to December 14. The trading volume in the week after the adjusted policy was released achieved a significant month-on-month increase. However, due to insufficient supply, the trading volume continued to decline in each subsequent week. However, the average weekly trading volume was still higher than the level in the week before the new policy was released. From January 1 to January 14, 2024, the overall transaction volume stabilized at a relatively high level, achieving month-on-month growth.
"Some new suburban projects in Shanghai with a total price of about 6 million yuan have seen good sales. The tax cost of second-hand houses has been significantly reduced. Many landlords are willing to sell houses and reduce prices. Coupled with the increase in demand for house replacement, the second-hand house market has Some obvious signs of activity." Yan Yuejin said.
The National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction held at the end of 2023 pointed out that in 2024, work must adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through promotion, establishing first and then breaking, focusing on the housing and real estate sector, urban and rural construction sector, construction industry sector, and basic support. The four major sections work.
Industry insiders generally believe that in 2024, macro policies will continue to work to stabilize the economy, and the policy tone of "build first and then break" has also brought stronger optimization expectations to real estate policies.
Zhang Dawei said that the "Little Indian Spring" of Beijing's property market in 2023 will mainly rely on the release of housing in school districts and the early backlog of demand. It is expected that the market high point in 2024 is likely to occur from March to April. The housing transaction volume in January is expected to be between 12,000 and 13,000 units. After the Spring Festival, the transaction volume in March is expected to exceed 15,000 units again.
Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, predicts that the purchase restriction threshold in first-tier cities will be lowered this year, and more low-level cities may release housing demand through means such as issuing housing subsidies. "For the new home market, real estate companies must be prepared to 'trade price for volume'. Currently, market participants are more sensitive to housing prices. Real estate companies must be more pragmatic in terms of discounts. More actual profit sharing can further increase sales," Zhang Bo said. .
"Beijing and Shanghai have made greater efforts to optimize policies and cover a wide range of areas. They have made comprehensive efforts to reduce the cost and threshold of home purchase, which is conducive to promoting the release of rigid and improved housing demand." Chen Wenjing said. (China Economic Net reporter Li Fang)
Source: Economic Daily