The property market, which has not had a "good start", is working hard for Indian Spring. However, second-hand housing, known as the leading indicator of the market, has not made much waves at the beginning of 2024. According to statistics from the official website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, 12,444 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing in January, a decrease of 4% from the previous month, but an increase of 49.8% compared with the "low base" in January 2023. The number of online second-hand housing signings in Beijing has remained at 12,000 for three consecutive months, and transactions have remained stable.

　　Regarding the stable state of second-hand housing in Beijing, market views are also divided into two groups. One party believes that the stable state in January is to accumulate strength for the subsequent Indian Spring Festival, and the accelerated pace of house inspections is the best proof; the other party believes that with the increase of Guangzhou and Shanghai, Places such as China and other places have relaxed their purchase restriction policies. If Beijing has not made unexpected adjustments to its purchase restrictions and other policies recently, the popularity of the Indian Summer in 2024 is likely not to be too high. While the game between buyers and sellers continues and the property market does not have a "good start", can it usher in the Indian Summer?

　Continue to "exchange price for volume"

　　After rising for three consecutive months, the number of online second-hand housing transactions in Beijing stopped rising and turned down. In January 2024, 12,444 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing, which was slightly lower than the 12,963 units in December 2023, but the overall number was still maintained at the "prosperity and decline line" of 12,000 units.

　　From a year-on-year perspective, Beijing's online second-hand housing sales in January were "good" beyond expectations, with an increase of nearly 50% compared with the same period in 2023. However, behind this "good", the low base factor cannot be ignored. In 2023 The Spring Festival holiday in January affected the transaction volume, with only 8,308 units signed online.

　　"The online signing volume of 12,000 units is in line with market expectations. January is the traditional off-season for the property market, and January 2024 is also special, as it is in a period of market adjustment." Jia Bo, head of Changping Huilongguan Area, an agency, told Beijing Business According to the reporter, compared with the historical normal level, there is still room for improvement in the number of online visas in January. However, judging from the market transactions in recent months, stabilization in January is a good signal. Jia Bo believes that January 2024 is also special. Beijing’s new general housing standards are officially implemented, and a large number of non-ordinary residences have been converted into ordinary residences. This will take time to digest.

　　Zhu Liping, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, pointed out that Beijing’s second-hand housing transaction performance in January 2024 was significantly better than that in 2022 (11,875 units) and was still at a high level in the past six months. The 2024 Spring Festival will be ushered in February. Due to the Spring Festival holiday As a result, transaction volume will decline, and market activity is expected to increase in March after the holiday.

　　The number of online signings remains stable, and Beijing’s second-hand housing still maintains the trend of “price-for-volume”. According to statistics from Maitian Real Estate, the bargaining space for second-hand houses in January 2024 was 0.2 percentage points smaller than in December 2023, and the buyer’s strong bargaining position has been weakened. However, the bargaining space in January is still at a high level in the past year, second only to December 2023.

　　Buyers have an obvious bargaining advantage in the current market. The second-hand housing market has continued the trend of "price for volume" last month. However, as the supply of cost-effective housing continues to be digested, some landlords' psychological expectations have bottomed out in the short term, leaving room for further price declines. limited.

　　After entering January, the number of second-hand house listings in Beijing continued to decline. Statistics from Maitian Real Estate showed that the number of second-hand house listings in Beijing dropped by 2.5% in January compared with December.

　　A reporter from Beijing Business Daily learned that some second-hand house owners, affected by policies and continued price reductions, have chosen to remove their listings to wait and see the market trend. Beijing’s second-hand houses have bid farewell to the period of rapid growth in listed listings. However, the number of listings remains high.

Can we usher in the Indian Summer?

　　Through the data that stopped rising and then fell in January, whether the "Little Indian Spring" will arrive as scheduled in 2024 has also become the focus of the market, and the market holds completely different views on this.

　　Jia Bo said that since September 2023, Beijing’s second-hand housing transactions have been in a downward trend, and if there is no policy support during this period, it may plummet to the bottom. After the policy was introduced, the market began to stabilize, maintaining the level of 12,000 units for three consecutive months. In Jia Bo's view, from falling to stable, and then from stable to rising, this is regarded as a signal sent by the market.

　　Another leading intermediary practitioner, Li Jin, said that although the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has not changed significantly recently, the number of inquiries and viewings has increased significantly, and the accuracy of customers is very high, not just casual viewing. "It can be said that these are all gathering strength for the subsequent arrival of Indian Summer."

　　A real estate analyst who did not want to be named bluntly said that the most critical factor in whether Indian Summer will come is purchasing power. In the current market, the game between buyers and sellers continues, full of trials and speculations. Buyers wait and see while looking for more suitable opportunities to get on the bus, while sellers adjust their psychological expectations according to policy changes. In the past few months, both those who were "anxious to sell" and those who were "anxious to buy" had basically completed their transactions, while those who were not in a hurry had a more wait-and-see mentality. There are still many uncertainties as to whether the new purchasing power can quickly replenish their positions.

　　"If there are no major policy adjustments, the market will not be too bad in the next few months, but there is a high probability that Indian summer will not appear. Purchasing power restricts the emergence of Indian summer." said the above-mentioned real estate analyst.

　　Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, also believes that in 2023, Beijing issued two major policies to maintain the stability of the property market. Among them, the impact of the policy in early September increased short-term market transactions by 40%, while the impact of the policy on December 14 was reduced. Despite the market downturn, the increase in trading volume was only about 20%. Therefore, if there are no unexpected adjustments to policies such as purchase restrictions recently, the popularity of Indian Summer in 2024 is likely not to be too high.

　Homebuyer expectations are key

　　Regarding subsequent market analysis, many real estate analysts, including Zhang Dawei, said that under the "universal influence" of policies, Beijing's property market is recovering, but the degree of recovery depends on whether home buyers' expectations for home ownership can be restored.

　　Recently, first- and second-tier hotspot cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Suzhou have begun to relax purchase restrictions or fully relax them, which represents the direction of further loosening of property market policies in 2024.

　　Zhang Dawei said that after more than ten years of rapid development, the real estate market corresponds to the "three-phase superposition" of the shifting period of economic growth, the painful period of structural adjustment, and the digestion period of early stimulus policies. Especially in the period of economic transformation, home purchase Investors lack confidence, and the explosion of many real estate companies has affected the sense of security of home buyers, so the effect of many loose policies on the market is lower than expected.

　　The impact of a round of easing policies in December 2023 on the market will be quickly digested, and the market once again expects the policy to continue to increase.

　　In Zhang Dawei’s view, with the exception of a few core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai that still have purchase restrictions, most cities have run out of loose policies. At present, the real estate industry is not facing a simple financial problem. There is pressure on land acquisition, sales, customer sources, loans and even competition for homogeneous products. Judging from the current monitoring data, interest rates in many cities have seen slight changes. However, current home buying is a matter of income stability, which, coupled with demographic issues, still affects the stability of the real estate market.

　　Overall, the future trend of the real estate market still depends on policies. The overall market in January is not optimistic. The market is looking forward to the continued introduction of positive policies in February 2024, especially the fine-tuning of purchase restriction policies in cities such as Beijing. The market needs policy stimulus to have an Indian Summer.

　　Beijing Business Daily reporter Wang Yinhao