After two months, Turkey is preparing to hold its most important electoral contest since the founding of the republic a century ago, in terms of the fact that it constitutes a difficult test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to crown two decades of his rule with a new and final presidential term, and in terms of the sharp political and societal polarization that accompanies it and the exceptional circumstances surrounding it due to the repercussions of the devastating earthquake. And high inflation, in addition to that it comes at a moment of great global transformations that Ankara is not far from.

In contrast to the electoral events that took place during the past two decades, and the ruling Justice and Development Party led by Erdogan managed to win all of them and maintain power with the exception of the local elections that took place in 2019, the upcoming elections are largely different.

It is the first time that Erdogan faces a coalition of 6 opposition parties, including two major parties, and it is not a traditional competition between two coalitions - ruling and opposition - as much as it is a struggle to define Turkey's identity in its second century.

The opposition, which seeks to defeat Erdogan, not only wants to gain power, but also seeks to change the political system and an economic administration that is radically different from Erdogan's, and promises to adopt a completely different approach to foreign policy.

What adds mystery on the eve of the election is that both Erdogan and the opposition believe they will win.

On the one hand, and despite the difficult economic conditions and the repercussions of the earthquake, Erdogan signed a decree calling for presidential and parliamentary elections to be held on May 14, a month before their original date, in a move that reflected his confidence in his ability to win, and challenged the prevailing assumption that the opposition had a great opportunity to overthrow the ruling Justice and Development Party. .

On the other hand, the opposition six-party alliance succeeded in presenting a unified front to run in the elections and agree to nominate the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, for the presidency, but the short crisis that befell him against the background of the joint presidential candidate revealed the fragility of the alliance and the conflict of wills between its two largest components.

Although it is difficult to take into account the opinion polls published by both the ruling coalition and the opposition, and even the polls that are described as independent, they can be relied upon in part with the study of 3 other factors in order to dismantle electoral ambiguity and reach a realistic conclusion prior to the upcoming elections.

The balance of power between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu

The presidential competition is between two prominent personalities, Erdogan of the People's Alliance and Kilicdaroglu of the opposition Nation Alliance.

Other personalities could join the presidential race, but the competition will center between Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu, given the great electoral weight of both.

Bearing in mind that Erdogan has extensive experience in leading electoral competition and a significant political legacy as a result of his two decades of rule, so the question is whether Kilicdaroglu can compete?

Two determinants play a prominent role in this competition, the first is the candidate's personal skill in addressing the public and convincing him that he will be the best for him, and the second is political standing and electoral weight.

In the first, Erdogan is clearly superior to Kılıçdaroğlu, as he has a leadership that transcended his partisanship and exceptional charisma in addressing the public, in contrast to Kılıçdaroğlu, whose political presence remained confined to the Republican People's Party, and he had never run a presidential campaign, which makes this competition unequal on the personal level.

Moreover, Kılıçdaroğlu's ability to access the media to address the public seems to be considerably limited compared to Erdoğan.

As for the second, the competition appears to be relatively equal. While Erdogan's main voting base consists of the solid electoral bloc of both the Justice and Development Party and its ally the Nationalist Movement, Kilicdaroglu's basic voting base consists of the solid electoral bloc of the 6 opposition parties that are part of the six-party alliance.

The most recent independent polls indicated that the percentage of support for the ruling coalition ranged between 40 and 41%, while the percentage of support for the opposition six-party alliance was not provided.

However, taking into account that the voting bloc of the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, which has not yet decided its position in the elections, ranges between 10 to 11%, it seems clear that both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu are unable to reach the ratio of fifty plus one (50%). + 1) required to resolve the presidential elections from the first round, assuming that the Peoples’ Democratic Party will run in the elections independently and perhaps with its own presidential candidate, and therefore the presidential race may be decided in the second round.

Here, two different bets emerge. For his part, Erdogan is counting on that Kilicdaroglu, who has deep secular leanings, will not be able to win the conservative votes whose options have not been decided yet, as well as the conservative votes from the electoral base of the other parties in the six-party alliance, such as the parties of Good, Happiness, Future, and Medicine, which is What weakens the voting bloc of the opposition.

On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu is betting on winning the votes of the HDP in the first round, if a deal is reached with it, or in the second round to win the presidency and compensate for the loss of conservative votes in the opposition bloc.

The limits of cohesion of the opposition front

The six-party opposition alliance has so far presented a strong performance and a relatively cohesive front despite the contradictory ideologies of its components (left, right, nationalist, conservative, liberal...), but the recent crisis that befell it over the issue of the joint presidential candidate revealed the fragility of this unity.

It seemed that the coalition succeeded in overcoming this crisis, but many issues within the coalition still need consensus, on top of which are the joint parliamentary lists on the basis of which the opposition parties will run in the legislative elections.

Moreover, the proposed powers of the Vice-Presidents could be a point of contention that could threaten the harmony of the alliance.

The opposition's transitional roadmap stipulates that the president will make his decisions on major issues in agreement with his five deputies and not in consultation, which makes the president under the tutelage of the leaders of the other five parties within the six-party alliance.

In addition, any party leader at the table has the right to block major presidential decisions, regardless of his representative size.

The biggest challenge facing the opposition coalition in the short period remaining for the elections lies in how to convince the voters that it is able to bring about political stability in power after the recent chaos that befell it, which is a psychological issue that affects the voting behavior of the voter in general and the hesitant in particular whose votes constitute about 10%. Therefore, the success of any of the ruling and opposition coalitions in winning over hesitating votes will be influential in resolving the election results.

Kurdish voice trends

In light of the consensus of opinion polls - in most of them - on the difficulty of any of the two coalitions in deciding the presidential elections in the first round, the other votes, especially the Kurdish ones, will be decisive in tipping the electoral balance for either of the two coalitions, whether in the first round or in the second.

It is clear that neither of the two alliances is able to include the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party in it due to the influential nationalist element on the two fronts (the Nationalist Movement Party in the Public Alliance and the Good Party in the Ummah Alliance), but the Kurdish party meets with the opposition on the goal of defeating Erdogan and has expressed its willingness to support Kilicdaroglu. However, he stipulated that the six-party alliance be open to dialogue with him.

Certainly, this issue faces major complications within the opposition coalition in light of the hardline position of the Good Party, which refuses to join the Peoples' Party at the six-party table.

Meral Aksener's refusal stems from her fear that a declared alliance with the Peoples' Party will lead to a split within the Good Party and the return of nationalist votes to the mother National Movement Party.

How the Peoples' Party provides support for Kılıçdaroğlu will be the biggest problem facing the opposition in the remaining period of the elections, as public support can lead to a loss of 5% of the (nationalist) vote in the Good Party and about 3% of the (nationalist) vote in the Republican People's Party, which is This means that the potential votes coming from the HDP to support Kilicdaroglu may be equal to those lost by the six-party alliance.

Moreover, the future of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is still unclear in light of the case against it before the Supreme Constitutional Court, which may lead to its closure and essentially banning it from contesting elections.