The steps to Swedish NATO membership

  • Why does Orbán say he wants to "negotiate" with Sweden?

    38 sec

  • Is there a risk that Hungary will delay the process?

    29 sec

  • What can Orbán demand from Sweden?

    24 sec

  • What happens when Sweden gets the green light from everyone?

    47 sec

Sweden's application for NATO membership was submitted in May 2022, as a direct consequence of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.

On Thursday evening, 20 months later, Turkey has formally approved Sweden as a NATO member. It happened because President Erdogan signed the decision that Parliament made the other day. A milestone, states Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

The only thing left now is for the document to be handed over in Washington. By then, 31 of NATO's 32 member countries have officially approved Sweden as a member.

When Sweden's NATO application was debated in the Turkish parliament, much of the discussion was about what Sweden has done, or not done, to fulfill the demands made by Turkey. That has of course been an important issue for the process, but even more important is probably Turkey's desire to buy American F-16 planes.

Hungary has been encircled by Turkey

The message from Washington has been that only when Turkey completes the ratification process will President Biden proceed to Congress with a proposal to finalize that deal. So it can happen now.

Turkey's decision has long been seen as absolutely decisive for Swedish NATO membership. That has been true and probably still is. But the last few days have shown how difficult this process is to predict. Hungary has suddenly emerged as a clear obstacle to Swedish NATO membership. Hungary, which previously declared that it does not intend to be the last to approve Sweden, has suddenly been overtaken by Turkey.

A problem for the Swedish government is that Hungary does not make any concrete demands on Sweden, unlike Turkey. Instead, the Hungarian opposition to Sweden seems to be mostly about the criticism directed at Hungary by Swedish politicians over the years for flaws in democracy and the legal system. The country's government feels humiliated and now has an opportunity to give back.

The messages from Budapest are puzzling

At the same time, the signals from Hungary are confusing. One day the country's prime minister demands negotiations with Sweden's prime minister to approve the NATO application, the next day he declares that he stands behind the application and calls on the parliament to quickly complete the ratification, on the third day the speaker of the parliament announces that there is no rush to approve Sweden.

It is therefore, to put it mildly, puzzling information that is being sent from Budapest.

The question is also whether Hungary will require a visit by Ulf Kristersson to the capital before approving Sweden's NATO application.

Hungary: Lacks Turkey's power factor in NATO

Regardless of what, Hungary will now be exposed to heavy pressure both from NATO as an organization and from heavy NATO countries. Unlike Turkey, which is an influential NATO country with a large military power, Hungary is one of the smaller member states, and not nearly as heavy a power factor in NATO. The pressure on Viktor Orbán will therefore be fierce.

The Swedish government can also use the fact that Hungary has leased 14 Gripen planes since 2006 as a means of pressure. Whether that will happen is unclear. However, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson addresses this fact in his letter to Prime Minister Orbán.