The uproar raised by the United States about the Chinese balloon, which crossed its airspace last week from China via Canada, is considered interesting, and raises many questions about the reasons and motives for this aggressive, showy, inflated behavior, which further aggravates Chinese relations over the aggravation that they have been suffering from for a few years.
The balloon was not the first of its kind to pass through the United States, and China was neither the first nor the last to use balloons for various purposes, scientific, competitive or espionage.
Was this uproar an attempt by US President Joe Biden to back down a bit from his commitments to Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-November?
Or is it the pressure of the upcoming electoral competition that pushes him to act as a strong democratic American leader capable of protecting the United States and its people, and taking care of its interests, which confirms his eligibility for a second presidential term?
Or did President Biden want to exploit the event to send special messages to China, Russia and the European Union, as the end of the first year of the Russian war on Ukraine approaches?!
It was possible - in light of the Bali understandings - for the United States and China to reach a solution to the balloon crisis in a different way, but the two sides, although they are aware of the seriousness of the military confrontation between them, realize that the foundations on which they start are impossible to meet.
conflicting obligations
Prior to the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, the US and Chinese presidents held, on November 14, their first face-to-face meeting.
The meeting lasted 3 hours, during which the two sides called for increased cooperation and work together on major global issues, such as climate change, global economic stability, health security, and food security.
President Biden stated that the two countries share responsibility and can manage their differences and prevent competition from turning into conflict, and he made five commitments to China, known as the "five nos", summarized as follows:
Not to change the China regime.
Not to start a cold war with China.
Not to strengthen alliances against China.
No support for Taiwan independence.
There is no intention to sever relations with China or hinder or contain its economic development.
On the other hand, the Chinese president stressed five major issues, summarized as follows:
Take the Five No's seriously.
Not to seek to change the current international order, or to interfere in the internal affairs of the United States.
There is no intention to challenge or dislodge the United States.
Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Observing the basic rules of international relations to manage disputes and prevent confrontation and conflict.
The two presidents agreed that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will visit China early this year.
Despite the high diplomatic spirit that prevailed in this meeting, it is based on intense competitiveness in all fields, which has been bothering the United States for more than 20 years.
Otherwise, what was preventing the United States from dealing in a different way with the "hot air balloon" crisis in application of these assurances and commitments?!
Shouldn't the United States hasten the visit of its foreign minister - originally scheduled - to discuss the background to this crisis and find out its truth, and discuss ways and mechanisms to solve it, instead of suspending it, exchanging accusations, and acting unilaterally?
Was it not appropriate for China to send urgent reassurances to the United States, and to work quickly to form a joint committee with it to deal with the balloon, remove its doubts, and reduce the successive escalatory political, media and popular positions?
All of this was possible, and more, in light of the "Bali" understandings, but both sides, although they are aware of the seriousness of the military confrontation between them, they also realize that the foundations from which each of them proceeds is impossible to meet, so the United States does not accept to give up its leadership in the world. Nor does China accept to continue in an international system led by the United States.
The United States is continuing its war against "Putin's Russia" in Ukraine, and is eagerly awaiting its defeat, which restores the prestige of the United States, strengthens its position in world leadership, and sends a strong message to China that its opposition to the international system led by the United States will end up with what Russia has ended up with. Putin.
At the same time, China is proceeding with its strategic plan, strengthening its military, economic and technological capabilities, with firm insistence on the need to change the world order.
In his speech at the National Academy of Governance of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, last Tuesday, three days before the US Air Force shot down the balloon off the US coast on the orders of President Biden;
Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized China's next global leadership role, stressing that China's sustainable modernization represents a new model for human progress, dispelling the myth that "modernization means imitating the West", and offering China a solution to help explore a better socialist system for mankind.
Xi said that China's sustainable modernization has five unique features: modernization that targets a huge number of people, aims to achieve common prosperity for all, achieves material, cultural and moral progress, achieves harmony between humanity and nature, and is characterized by peaceful development.
For this, the Chinese president stressed the need to place innovation in an important position in the comprehensive national development, and make efforts to achieve higher efficiency than that achieved by capitalism, noting that the cause of promoting sustainable Chinese modernization will certainly face all kinds of risks, challenges and difficulties, and even dangerous storms. , expected and unexpected, saying: "Let us use our indomitable fighting spirit to open new horizons for our cause."
China is proceeding with its project, and insisting on achieving its strategy that has placed it within the range of American strategic goals, as the most dangerous force threatening the interests of American sovereignty in the global system and its military, economic, technological and moral hegemony.
The United States seeks to develop its military capabilities in the field of balloon manufacturing, increases its eagerness to confront China's progress in the field of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, which has become second only to the United States in this field.
Airship war
The US administration considered the presence of the Chinese airship in its airspace a clear violation of its sovereignty and international law, and that any country subject to such a situation would respond in the same manner as the United States did.
It is known that the United States is considered one of the first countries to use airships for espionage purposes, such as the "Mogul" project, which it launched after World War II to spy on the Soviet Union in the period 1947-1949, and the "Genetrix" project, which was launched in 1956, 516 balloons flying over 50 thousand-100 thousand feet above the Soviet Union, China and Eastern European countries, under the pretext of conducting weather research, and it was equipped with cameras at the bottom, and only 53 balloons returned from it, and the rest were shot down or derailed.
It also used it to spy on the Soviet Union during the Cold War within the "Moby Dick" project, as well as to monitor military activities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Japanese were the first to use intercontinental airships for offensive military purposes against the United States during World War II, and the Soviet Union used them extensively for espionage purposes during the Cold War.
The US Department of Defense has been working for years to develop airships, for which more than 27 million dollars have been allocated in the current year’s budget, due to their characteristics and the roles they play that satellites and spy planes cannot play, including:
Significantly lower cost compared to other intercontinental espionage equipment.
Its ability to travel long distances at high altitudes, much higher than the paths of ordinary aircraft, as it reaches 80 thousand feet, and it may continue at these altitudes for a month, and it may reach longer periods in the near future.
Its ability to transmit enormous information that satellites cannot transmit because it is fixed in the atmosphere, just as reconnaissance drones cannot do it due to their limited capabilities.
The difficulty of detecting it by radars due to its slow speed, which helps it to carry out tasks that other aircraft cannot perform.
Its ability to transmit accurate information to missiles heading to strike tactical targets such as missiles and air radars 1,000 miles or more away.
It is equipped with a sensor developed to measure wind type and speed, and efficiently change the flight mode accordingly, so that it can maintain a specific location within 12 miles of a specified target for 4 days.
Its durability and durability, and its ability to carry a lot of necessary equipment such as thermal cameras, radars, radio frequency sensors, and solar panels.
Its ability to transmit more accurate audio and visual information than satellites, due to the proximity of the balloons to the Earth's surface compared to satellites that range from 100 to 1,200 miles above the Earth's surface in space.
Currently, these airships can be equipped with a range of systems that allow them to detect missiles, monitor the ground, and even defend themselves.
Admiral Ted, commander of US Southern Command in Central America, South America and the Caribbean, considers these balloons to be a game-changer, as they are a large, long-term observation platform.
And the United States’ endeavor to develop its military capabilities in the field of balloon manufacturing increases its eagerness to confront China’s progress in the field of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, which has become second only to the United States in this field, as the number of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems in China in 2021 reached more than 260. A system in which satellites, balloons, spy drones, and other means are used.
Was this the driving force behind the American uproar over the Chinese airship?
Is it the only motive or are there other motives?
(… He follows)