As soon as I sat down to write about the French prospects for the next year, an urgent message came in of more than 200,000 new cases of covid infection in France.
The figure is very high, and this is not the limit, the Minister of Health said.
I am surprised that over the years the entire population of the country has not yet been ill, where there are not so many unvaccinated people, 76% of people have already received two doses.
In general, of course, the topic of covid will not disappear from the agenda and will play a significant role in the life of France.
They even say that the presidential elections may be canceled.
This is not provided for either in the Constitution of the country, nor has there been any precedents (not counting the postponement of regional elections).
But consultations are underway.
Virologists ask not to panic.
Yes, the virus mutates. Yes, it spreads quickly, but it does not become more deadly, which means that soon the infection curve will go down and there will be no reason to postpone the vote. If everything goes according to plan, then we will have months full of political agenda until April. The race promises to be interesting, however, it is still unclear who will eventually reach the finish line of the first round. No money. They were found only by the left, Le Pen has problems, Zemmur is still collecting. Macron has them, but he is still silent, although his team is actively working on public opinion. For example, he distributes a bingo game, where he offers answers to the most common complaints against him.
Macron has a head start, he actively uses his official position to travel around the country, meet with residents and make generous promises of millions of euros. And then, of course, not as a candidate, but just like that, he speaks in prime time with a recorded two-hour interview, summing up the results, repenting for mistakes and making plans for the future. Because of this, programs with other applicants for the post were simply taken off the air, because everyone was talking about Macron.
Right-wing candidate Valerie Pécresse tried to challenge the French media regulator for such use of the media in Macron's interests, but they did not find anything shameful in the president's interview, because he is not a candidate. Although when the same Erik Zemmur was not yet a candidate, the same authority included him in the list of political figures in absentia and limited the time on air for the journalist. Equality is not for everyone. Be that as it may, the views of Macron's interview were comparatively few, the French had even less satisfaction with the topics sounded, as the polls showed, but the president's rating grew slightly, and his main rival Valerie Pécresse fell slightly.
Now in the first round Marine Le Pen is breathing down her head with 16%, behind the two ladies is Zemmur, he has 14. Macron has 24. The second round is predicted to win either he or Pécresse. Everything is clear with the current head of state. His policy towards Russia, oriented towards globalists and Atlanticists, is unlikely to change. He will remain the epitome of his nickname "and at the same time." Will advocate for dialogue and at the same time impose sanctions ordered by Washington.
As for Pécresse, she has not yet talked about her foreign policy at all.
The only thing she did was to follow Zemmur to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to a diplomatic scandal, Azerbaijan handed a note of protest to French diplomats.
She understands Russian, even once in her student years she studied our language, but this does not mean that if she comes to power, France will turn to the East.
Moreover, I very much doubt it.
France is bound by all sorts of treaties, obligations within NATO, within the EU, within the framework of friendship with Washington, which no contracts for submarines will break.
So, the pendulum of the domestic political agenda will probably swing to the right with it, and stop there.
The option of Zemmour's appearance in the Elysee Palace looks doubtful, not only because he is far right, to which many French people have a historical allergy. But also due to the well-organized elite, which almost, despite the differences, puts a barrier in the second round for any candidate from this flank. Two generations of Le Pen have experienced this for themselves. The left has no chance at all in this election. Another transgender mayor, who also wants to join the race, is in favor of improving relations with Russia. A man who calls himself a woman, however, wants to prioritize not so much foreign policy issues as the LGBT agenda. Well, we'll follow.
Changes in the country's foreign policy are not expected. Unless the position in Africa is gradually weakening. And it's not just about the withdrawal of the assets of the billionaire Bollore, who was a significant player in the global transport and logistics system, from African ports. In Mali, the French write, Russian PMC fighters nevertheless appeared, for Paris it is an excellent reason to write off all its failures in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel on the Russians. Already now, in a joint angry communique from more than a dozen countries, they write that the emergence of our PMC brings destabilization and chaos to the region. As if everything was fine there before. But now the potential culprits have been identified. In the European vision of the world, the Russians are often to blame for everything. But even without Africa, the year will be politically intense for France.
For the first time since the time of Sarkozy, the country from January 1 for six months also becomes the chairman of the EU Council, will play the first violin in the development of common European laws. Macron hoofs leadership and prepares to lead Europe into a brighter future. One of the main priorities is to build a common European strategic security, separate from NATO, no matter how pathetic it sounds. Here everyone immediately recalls Macron's famous phrase about the death of the alliance's brain. But Secretary General Stoltenberg, who will soon leave this post, predictably already expressed his fi to such initiatives of Paris, and many eastern EU countries doubted that Macron would cut the Washington branch on which the European Union sits.
Most likely, he will push laws that are beneficial to Paris in the areas of climate, health care and financing. In each of these areas, the topic will be led by a relevant minister, throwing up an idea, coordinating with all 27 countries, bringing it to mind and accepting it through the European Commission. The problem is that in the middle of this presidency, the helmsman may change (presidential elections), and with it all the ministers who should lead their committees. The opposition has already accused Macron of not transferring the French presidency out of personal selfishness and counting on a second term, which will now happen only 13 years later.
Others accuse him of promoting not so much the interests of France in the EU as serving large corporations, which, through lobbyists, allegedly actively manipulate him.
Purely French interests, they fear there will be few, they joke that one should expect more Robert Schumann and less Victor Hugo.
Joking aside, what exactly will be on the agenda - energy and French advocacy for nuclear power plants.
With them, too, by the way, trouble.
Some urgently stopped work due to a breakdown, others stopped themselves: a preventive measure, preventive repairs are required.
All this happened, as usual, at the wrong time - in winter. Every fourth reactor in the country does not work, electricity is sorely lacking. Buy from Germany, Italy, Spain. And then there are the prices for other types of fuel, the same gas, sky-high. All together led to the fact that the press began to prepare people for blackouts for two hours in the evenings, from 19:00 to 21:00, in squares of 200 thousand people each. Exceptions are strategic locations, hospitals and Paris. Large enterprises can also temporarily deprive electricity in order to save money, another option is to lower the current for the consumer, so that the stove heats up longer or the phone charges more slowly. Ahead of the cold. January promises to be challenging. A one-degree drop in temperature equals 2.4 gigawatts of additional electricity demand. Where to get them from is still unclear.
It is clear that no one will remember such a situation in France at all. It was not enough for Macron to have a health crisis, "yellow vests" and Australian slaps in the face with submarines. There are also interruptions in light. If rolling blackouts begin in January, albeit planned (and forecasts do not exclude such a scenario), it will be difficult for the head of state to maintain his rating and be re-elected again. So far, due to a complex system of calculations and taxes, the French have not yet felt the fluctuations in value on their light bills. But some operators were forced to stop serving customers due to high prices in the market. All this creates a turbulent background before the elections, where one of the main topics of concern to the French is still security. Part of its barometer will be New Year's Eve in Paris, Lyon, Strasbourg and other large cities.Burning cars instead of firecrackers has long become a good new French tradition on a festive night. A tradition that, unlike French history and culture, no one has yet been able to abolish.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.