Efe Geneva


Updated Tuesday, March 5, 2024-07:28

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipated this Tuesday that the current

El Niño

climate phenomenon , which is usually linked to an increase in temperatures, will continue

at least between March and May

, although it could end from April to June, after reaching maximum levels. the last December.

In its regular update on the phenomenon, the Geneva-based UN agency anticipates that El Niño, which usually lasts between nine and 12 months and

began in mid-2023

, "will continue to affect the global climate in the coming months."

According to the report, there is a 60% probability that these conditions will persist from March to May and an 80% probability that the meteorological conditions will become neutral (those typical of the season, without the incidence of El Niño) from April to June.

The organization expects that this continuation, although weaker, El Niño, coupled with the forecast of

unusually high sea surface temperatures

in most of the world's oceans, will result in

above-normal temperatures in almost all land areas

in the next three months and influence regional rainfall patterns.

Then there is the possibility that the

La Niña phenomenon, normally associated with colder-than-usual weather,

could develop later in the year, although the probabilities are "uncertain" at the moment, the WMO says.

In addition to El Niño and La Niña, the WMO notes that

positive temperature anomalies are also expected

in almost the entire northern hemisphere, except in the extreme southeast of North America, as well as in most of the land areas of the southern hemisphere.

El Niño, a phenomenon that

occurs periodically but irregularly

(with intervals of between two and seven years), "impacts global temperature especially the year following its development, in this case in 2024," the report noted. the Secretary General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo.

Sea surface temperature

"The sea surface temperature of January 2024 was, by far,

the highest recorded in history in the month of January

," warned the Argentine expert.

Saulo recalled that this is not only due to the influence of El Niño, but also to global warming caused by greenhouse gas


derived from human activity.

"El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit," he said.

The head of the WMO emphasized the importance of early warnings to mitigate the impact of El Niño phenomena on global societies and economies, allowing countries to prepare in advance to

try to limit damage

in climate-sensitive sectors. such as agriculture, water resources or health.

"Early warnings of extreme weather and climate events associated with El Niño have saved countless lives," he said.

According to the WMO, this year's El Niño peaked at about 2°C above the average sea surface temperature between 1991 and 2020 for the tropical, eastern and central Pacific Ocean, becoming one of five major events. this type strongest in history.