The campaign for the February 21 parliamentary elections officially opened on Thursday, February 13, in Iran. This election should be marked by a strong return by the Conservatives when the Guardian Council disqualified a striking number of reformist candidates. According to official figures, 7,148 candidates were qualified to participate in the poll and 7,296 applications for candidates were invalidated.

A moderate conservative, President Hassan Rohani has repeatedly called on the Iranians to participate en masse in the legislative elections, describing the upcoming consultation as "very important", but, as France 24 explains Thierry Coville, researcher at Iris and specialist of Iran, the massive disqualification of these candidates could discourage the Iranian population from going to vote. The February 21 ballot also comes while the Islamic Republic is under severe US sanctions, and has been on the brink of military confrontation with the United States in recent months.

France 24: What is the main issue of these legislative elections?

Thierry Coville: It's the participation rate. What we hear, especially in big cities, is that people do not want to vote. There is the economic and political crisis and people who are disappointed by President Hassan Rohani. There were also the demonstrations in November 2019 and finally the incident of the Ukrainian Boeing. But above all, above all what makes this discontent rise, is the ousting of the moderate candidates of the parliament: 75% of the deputies of the Parliament cannot even represent themselves. It no longer makes sense. It's enormous. The result is therefore no doubt now, since there are almost only ultraconservative candidates. The supporters of the regime, they will go to vote, but as for the urban middle class, it is difficult to see how it could mobilize.

There are still the poorest who took to the streets in late 2019, but the regime's response was merciless. And you finally have the basis of the diet that should not be ignored. About 30% of the population support the regime for various reasons.

But what caused these invalidations in large numbers of reformist or moderate candidates?

The Guardian Council is dominated by the ultra-conservatives. It still has this mission of allegedly selecting the candidates who respect the law, but they use it as a political weapon. It is not new, but it has taken on unprecedented proportions. From what we hear, the hardliners (Editor's note: of the Iranian regime) perceive the camp of the moderates as very weakened by the economic and political crisis. They consider that people would not have gone to the polls anyway. Since they do not really believe in the democratic process, they see this election as a good opportunity to win parliament. Under normal conditions, with an average participation rate, they would not have had much luck.

Today, all critical or moderate voices have been eliminated. So that Rohani says that if this continues the word Republic will soon be a crime in Iran, that gives you an idea of ​​the current tensions between him, the moderates and the hardships.

What position is Hassan Rohani currently in? Many observers predict during the legislative elections a failure of his alliance of government formed by the moderates and the reformers.

In any case, he is already weakened, but he will end up with a very critical Parliament even if it no longer really plays a role. On the other hand, we also see that the hardliners have stopped thinking of a possible "impeachment" (Editor's note: removal procedure) from Rohani. They are beginning to understand that it is better to have him on the front line, to see him take all the hits, because they would not do better. A priori, Rohani is therefore heading towards the end of his mandate, but it looks complicated because he is going to have an ultra-conservative Parliament.

Is this also a way of preparing the ground for the next presidential election to be held in 2021?

It is a bit like what we experienced at the end of the reformers' period, with the last mandate of Mohammad Khatami (Editor's note: in 2005). The Conservatives are in a strategy to recover all the powers. They can now recover Parliament and obviously they are starting to think about the next presidential election in a year.

Are they also trying to send a message about the tensions that currently exist with the United States?

The tough guys are recovering as much power as possible internally so that they are no longer embarrassed by institutions that criticize them. This will lead to a tightening in the area of ​​foreign policy with more aggressiveness. In the short term, this does not augur for a decrease in tensions with the United States until the American presidential election. This is the deadline that even the tough guys are waiting for. The important thing for them is to control all the powers and have more unity in the ranks. Their message is to focus on the response they will give to the United States. They really think they are at war.

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