Some 61 million Iranians are expected to go to the polls on Friday, March 1, to choose their deputies, but also the 88 members of the Assembly of Experts.

This body is responsible for monitoring and possibly removing the supreme leader.

It is also this college, made up of Shiite clerics, which must appoint the successor of the supreme leader if he dies.

However, the key figure of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, is 84 years old.

At the top of Iranian power, this religious man, appointed for life, concentrates the majority of the political and decision-making powers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, although he is assisted by a president.

This is why the guide's health remains a taboo subject in Iran, where those around him have maintained secrecy since Ali Khamenei was treated in 2014 for prostate cancer.

Given the advanced age of the Iranian number one, the clerics of the Assembly of Experts – all men – could be responsible for resolving the thorny question of his succession, since they are elected for eight years.

For Thierry Coville, Iran specialist at Iris, the election of these experts is therefore more important than the legislative elections, "the guide having a central role in the Iranian political system".

The control of the ultraconservatives

Currently, ultraconservatives dominate the Assembly of Experts, which is older and more conservative than ever.

Its president is Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, known for his fierce opposition to the idea of ​​reforms in Iran.

Aged 97, he announced that he would not run again.

Iranian Supreme Leader and head of the Assembly of Experts Ahmad Jannati, now 97, here in Tehran in 2017.

© AFP (archives)

Until today, a few moderate figures from the inner circle, such as former President Hassan Rouhani (2013-2021), still sat among the “experts”.

But the Guardian Council of the Constitution, another central body of the Islamic Republic responsible for examining the validity of candidacies, this time disqualified a large number of them, including that of Hassan Rouhani, who had served since 1999.

“The guide locked everything down,” explains Jonathan Piron, historian specializing in Iran at the Etopia research center in Brussels.

Half of the members of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, also dominated by old conservative clerics, are appointed by the Supreme Guide himself.

“Everything is done by the regime to prevent the election of dissident votes and avoid any unpleasant surprises,” comments the researcher.

The election should therefore strengthen the control of the ultraconservatives, close to Ali Khamenei, over the Assembly of Experts.

Among the 144 candidates validated by the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, which examined 500, there are, according to Iranian media, 105 supporters of the hard line of the regime, while 39 are running as independents.

“The candidates who declare themselves independent are absolutely not part of the moderate camp and even less of the reform camp, which has been crushed in Iran for several years,” comments Jonathan Piron.

Which risks encouraging record abstention.

According to one of the rare polls carried out in recent weeks for state television, only half of voters plan to go to the polls.

Opponents in Iran and the diaspora have been calling for a boycott for weeks, presenting any participation in this double vote as a sign of compromise with the system.

An imposed successor

On paper, the Assembly of Experts remains an important body, responsible for appointing, monitoring and possibly dismissing the supreme leader.

But behind the scenes, explains the historian, "it is ultimately not she who will decide on the next guide. It is not an authority which will reflect calmly. It will only have to validate a choice made upstream by the 'Beit' in the service of Ali Khamenei, and most certainly also by the Revolutionary Guards. Moreover, they are undoubtedly already in the process of agreeing on the choice of successor."

Read alsoIn Iran, Khamenei's advanced age raises the question of his succession

In Iran, the "Beit", a nebula of advisors surrounding the supreme guide, functions as an institution parallel to state bodies, with its own administration aiming to validate the decisions taken at different levels of power so that they are in conformity with those of Ayatollah Khamenei.

Thus, the Guide's Office has relays in the ranks of the judicial administration, the security services and even state television.

At its head, Ali Khamenei appointed his most faithful ally, who is none other than his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

The son of Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, during a rally in Tehran on May 31, 2019. © AP (archives)

The latter is seen by many observers of Iranian politics as one of the favorites to succeed his father as supreme guide, even if he is "decried by part of the Shiite clergy, who do not want to see a dynasty get back into place in Iran", as Jonathan Piron points out.

At his side in this shadow race, the current conservative president Ebrahim Raïssi appears as another potential successor.

He is also seeking a third term within the Assembly of Experts and his candidacy has been validated.

“Khamenei created too much of a vacuum around him”

Close to the guide, Ebrahim Raïssi is for his part criticized by some of Ali Khamenei's supporters "because he is seen as someone weak, who fails to restore the economy. He would be more of a second knife than a leading personality, capable of controlling all the pillars of the regime", analyzes Jonathan Piron.

“The problem is that no one really emerges because Khamenei has created too much of a vacuum around him. He has not delegated any lever of power, so that no personality has enough power to assert themselves.”

“The regime could see breaches open within its hard core, which will weaken the legitimacy of the successor,” concludes the researcher.

Hence the danger that this succession represents for Iranian power.

Also see Iranian power, a system locked in the hands of the supreme guide

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