There are people who became heroes in life, such as, for example, the Homeric Achilles. So when they suddenly die, you cannot believe it. The Al-Quds Force Commander (the military-political unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, responsible for all Iran’s secret special operations abroad) was the same epic hero as Achilles. Israeli and American intelligence services called him Darth Vader of Middle Eastern politics, The New Yorker magazine called him Shadow and scammed with Batman and the Persian kings, reviving the empire, the BBC made a film a month ago called “Iran’s Secret Commander” - and all about him, about Kassem Suleimani .
And suddenly, like a mere mortal, he dies. On January 3, at night, broadcasts of all world channels switched to round-the-clock broadcasts - everyone from Al Jazeera to the BBC and Fox excitedly discusses that America, on Trump’s order, blew up Suleymani around the perimeter of Baghdad international airport: and what will happen in the Middle East when the war is tomorrow or the day after tomorrow ?
Looking at the frame of fire that was a car a few minutes ago - in which there were no visually identifiable traces of human bodies - it’s impossible to believe that an immortal hero could have died so simply, so easily, in the most decisive round of the battle for Iraq, not completing your mission, because superheroes can die only after winning all the battles to the end!
What did the most famous Iranian general in the world do that night in Baghdad?
A few days ago, Iraqi Shiite groups in response to US air strikes at the Kataib Hezbollah base (dozens of injured and killed Iraqis) went to the US Embassy in Baghdad and cordoned off it.
The number of Iraqis demanding the United States to get out of Iraq was several thousand, the Americans, remembering 1979 and taking hostages in Tehran, became very nervous, having managed to evacuate the embassy and urgently throwing a group of 750 military men to the embassy to protect the embassy.
Trump accused Iran of attacking the embassy; Suleimani flew to Baghdad to resolve the crisis. And - with a point hit, the car was destroyed from the air by the Americans (in Iraq, I recall, everything happens, not in Iran and not in the USA).
Already at five in the morning, official Tehran confirmed that Suleymani was in the burnt car. Iran’s reaction was lightning - the Security Council was already convening at dawn, Ayatollah Khamenei at dawn promised US retaliation for this murder, in the morning the streets of Tehran were filled with millions of crying people in black - they really loved Suleimani, since he was not a politician, but a national hero, a soldier , "Commander of the hearts."
Such an impudent murder of an iconic figure for the Middle East (the main ideologist of the fight against ISIS *, who threatened to gobble up the region and even managed to collaborate on this with the CIA. - Note by author ), Trump's boastful tweets, which only experienced impeachment and are selective on the nose, - struck even the world intelligence community.
The whole world is discussing today the news of Suleymani in the context of whether to expect the US and Iran wars now. Dozens of scenarios, up to nuclear strikes. What can you really expect after the assassination of Suleimani?
Undoubtedly, the killing of characters (which Sulejmani undoubtedly was) raises the masses to exploits and heroism. The classic of war films - the dying beloved commander inspires his soldiers, who furiously forget about the fear of death, rushing forward into battle.
The death of Suleymani can undoubtedly raise the Shiite world to unity and war against a common enemy. It is just marked - this is the star-striped flag of the United States, waving in Iraq. The death of Suleymani in Iraq is symbolic - the Shiites of Iraq, Lebanon, Syria must forget about national differences, strife and unite with a single hatred against the enemy, because "Suleymani fought for all of them against the USA, which brought so much evil and death to their land," as the saying goes propaganda of Shiite groups.
It is possible that the death of Suleymani will be erased at least temporarily by a confessional identifier and not the Iranians or even Shiites will stand against the United States, but in general the “Muslims” of the region. And the "road map" of the Middle East will change geopolitically - with new "police", for example, Turkey, Iran, the Gulf monarchies and partly the Western coalition. Or maybe there will be no war at all. This is still an open question.
On the whole, Suleymani managed during his lifetime the most important thing - to build Iran’s geopolitical architecture in the region: he took the sacred Karbala, saved Syria and Assad, Iraq, imposed Saudi Arabia with Yemenite Hussites, led Iran to the Mediterranean Sea, Hezbollah just set its prime minister in Lebanon, ISIS is almost destroyed, that is, in the Muslim world and the region of Iran there is a strong state, a counterweight to Turkish and Sunni influence; if Iran manages to maintain this influence, its ambitions can be considered fulfilled.
Suleymani’s unfulfilled dream was America’s withdrawal from Iraq. Trump planned to withdraw part of the American contingent from Afghanistan and, in general, "put an end to the endless wars of America." It seems paradoxical, but the death of Suleimani can really raise the movement that the United States will carry out of Iraq. It could be a war, or maybe Iraq’s legislative requirement for the United States to withdraw its troops, right up to a referendum or raising this issue at the UN.
But in disputes about the future of the Middle East and the chances of an impending war, analysts forget about the most important issue, in my opinion. About the future of Iran itself without Suleimani. And this question is more global than the next crisis in the Middle East, the election “victorious Trump” or the price per barrel.
Without Suleimani, the ayatollah regime might not be able to resist. He was not only the spine of the regime, he was his brain - the governing body, will and muscles of the Islamic Republic.
The unique personal relationship with the spiritual leader Khamenei, who paternally loved Suleymani for his 100% personal devotion and for serving the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, was due to many factors.
The general always kept a low profile, did not climb into the presidency, showed indifference to money and luxury (money was only a tool for him to revive the architecture of the Persian empire, its access to the Mediterranean Sea and its security), defiantly fought on the battlefield, watching death in face. The spiritual leader called Suleymani a living martyr, the faithful son of the revolution and the only Iranian living in the Khamenei era to present the Order of Zulfikar - the highest military award of the state of Iran. Khamenei was sure of only one thing, as in his son. And Suleymani never let him down.
Suleimani, as the shadow cardinal of Iran, who has genuine secret power in all branches of government, has always protected Khamenei from all internal threats - whether it be conspiracies, protests of 2009, protests of 2018 or 2019. All the enemies of Khamenei lay dead under his feet. While Suleymani was alive, nothing could happen to Khamenei.
Now Suleimani is gone. And clouds of new protests are gathering over the country - and this despite the fact that all the blame for those killed during the suppression of the November protests in all world media in Persian was personally assigned to Khamenei. Allegedly, he personally said: "The Islamic Republic is under threat, do everything to suppress the protest." And the protest was crushed. According to Iranian official figures, more than 300 people were killed, among whom were mostly young people, and more than 1,500 according to media reports.
Yes, Iran cannot get used to protests, but after the assassination of the most powerful “shadow master of Iraq” and the personal security guarantor of Khamenei, the situation at the top of the Iranian government is changing qualitatively.
The powerful, influential Suleimani, who was compared to Iranian Stalin, is dead. 80-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei was left alone in the serpentine plexus of intrigues of influential Iranian clans. It was not just that he did not sleep in the early morning of January 3, 2020, and urgently convened an emergency security council.
Let me remind you that Khamenei is opposed to Iran’s deal with the West. Until today, he was not alone in this confrontation with the United States - Suleimani was a fierce opponent of any negotiations with the United States. After his death, perhaps Khamenei is now the only force in Iran that speaks of the values of the Islamic Revolution and talks about the United States in terms of Greater Satan.
Because so many in Iran - in the government, big business, the army and even the IRGC - want this deal with the West. What is the point in the accumulated wealth, if everything is under total sanctions, not allowed to travel abroad, and the country is economically strangled so much that it is just about possible to declare a default?
We can say that Kassem Suleimani was the last bastion of Iran, which interfered with negotiations with the West and symbolically fell on fire from an American rocket on January 3, new 2020.
The confusion and confusion in Tehran caused by its death can cause a fierce aggravation of the struggle for power and the beginning of a new order. We already had Gorbachev in Russia, perestroika, an embrace with the West and a collapsed iron curtain. Iran only has to survive this.
* “Islamic State” (IG) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.