Why Turkey will send troops to Libya

Turkish deputies approved a motion on Thursday (January 2nd) allowing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to send troops to Libya to support the Government of National Unity (GNA) of Fayez al-Sarraj, recognized by the UN, and which is threatened by an offensive by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the strongman from eastern Libya, supported in particular by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

Turkish military support for the government of Fayez al-Sarraj comes after the signing on 27 November of a controversial agreement between Ankara and Tripoli which provides for enhanced security cooperation between the two parties and the demarcation of the maritime borders between them .

Why is the Turkish compass now pointing towards Libya? What are Ankara's aspirations in the country? What are the implications for the Maghreb? Bachir Abdel-Fattah, expert on Turkish and Iranian affairs at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, based in Cairo, answers questions from France 24.

France 24: What is Turkey doing in Libya? What are the challenges for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan?

Bachir Abdel-Fattah: The Turkish government pursues several strategic objectives in Libya, most of which is related to hydrocarbon resources. Turkey consumes a lot of energy each year, but does not have enough natural resources to meet its needs. Despite drilling operations carried out by Ankara, its marine areas do not contain major gas or oil deposits. The rapprochement between Turkey and the Government of Libyan National Union (GNA) responds to this desire to find new energy resources.

It is in this sense that Ankara recently concluded a controversial maritime agreement with the government of Fayez al-Sarraj, under which Turkey can assert its rights over large maritime areas in the eastern Mediterranean. This region of the Mediterranean contains huge deposits of natural gas estimated at more than 100 trillion cubic meters. Ankara therefore seeks to take a large share of this wealth. The agreement known as "Eastmed" between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, to be signed on Thursday and which aims to secure Europe's energy supply along a line of over 1,870 km, has hampered Turkey's attempts to extend its control over the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish-Libyan alliance is a response to this agreement.

In addition to energy, Ankara signed an agreement on military cooperation with the GNA. For what reasons ?

Turkish political and military involvement in Libya is part of President Erdogan's efforts to extend the influence of his country, as in a kind of new Ottoman Empire, over the region of the Middle East and the North Africa. From a strategic point of view, Turkey is approaching the western borders of Egypt. Libya is the scene of an indirect conflict between Cairo, which supports Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and Ankara, which militarily supports Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Relations between Egypt and Turkey have been very tense since the army overthrew the Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 [then supported by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, himself from the Islamist movement, note].

What can be the impact of these developments in Libya on the neighboring Maghreb countries?

Due to the neighborhood between Libya and the Maghreb countries, the latter are likely to be affected if, with the entry into play of Turkey which changes the balance of power, new fronts open up or if the battles f intensified to the point of causing even more chaos. Such a destabilizing scenario could encourage the spread and infiltration of terrorist elements, and raise fears of a wave of migration from Libya to its neighbors. The fact remains that the Maghreb countries remain neutral in their positions on the Libyan conflict, and it is difficult to think that they can be drawn into a war of struggle for influence.

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