An upcoming visit by Erdogan to Cairo.. What does the region expect from the two countries?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Anatolia)

More than eleven years after his last visit, Cairo is anticipating the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the middle of this month, as announced by several news agencies, citing Turkish sources.

His last visit was in November 2012, where he met the former Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi, and gave a famous speech at Cairo University. He also made a similar visit in September 2011, during which he met with the head of the ruling military council, Field Marshal Tantawi. During both visits, he was then Prime Minister.

The anticipated visit comes after many years of political estrangement, before relations began to improve and the two heads of state met twice: the first while attending the opening of the World Cup in Qatar 2022, and the second on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in the Indian capital, New Delhi, last September.

The visit comes under very delicate and sensitive circumstances that the region is going through, so it is expected that the urgent regional issues will take precedence over the bilateral relations file. The two countries’ current involvement in solving the region’s problems does not reward their great geostrategic potential. Indeed, I am not exaggerating when I say that it is one of the most important causes of chaos. What the region is witnessing is the lack of coordination between Cairo and Ankara.

The aggression against Gaza

It is natural that the issue of the brutal Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip will be at the forefront of the upcoming discussions between Erdogan and Sisi, as so far the two countries have not provided anything worthy of their capabilities to stop that aggression and bring humanitarian aid into the Strip.

The two countries have great pressure cards to confront and stop the aggression, as they control the most important shipping lanes in the world: (the Suez Canal - the Dardanelles Strait - the Bosphorus Strait), and they also overlook a number of strategic seas in the heart of the ancient world: (the Red Sea - the Mediterranean Sea). - Sea of ​​Marmara - Black Sea).

Militarily, the two countries have the two strongest armies in the region, and Turkey has the advantage of national defense industries, which are witnessing progress day after day, to the point that it ranks third in the world in possession of drones after the United States and China, as Turkey possesses more than nine hundred drones.

The two countries also enjoy a strong presence in a number of international and regional organizations, such as: NATO, the Organization of Turkish States, the Arab League, and the African Union.

Therefore, more reliable cooperation between the two countries may be sufficient to end this aggression, which is approaching its fourth month, leaving tens of thousands of martyrs and wounded, in addition to the almost complete destruction of the Gaza Strip and its infrastructure. This cooperation must also extend to rearranging the Palestinian house from within. An arrangement equivalent to the effects of the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” leading to the declaration of a Palestinian state on the borders before June 5, 1967.

Sudanese arena

The absence of the two states from the Sudanese scene since the outbreak of the conflict between the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces, last April, allowed the expansion of some regional powers at the expense of security and stability in Sudan, which led to the country entering into security chaos, and a humanitarian disaster that led to the displacement and displacement of millions. Sudanese.

The two countries enjoy a strong presence in Khartoum, which enables them to play an effective role in stopping this deterioration and preventing the continuation of this regional tampering with Sudan’s capabilities.

Somali file

Last January, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud visited Cairo and discussed with Sisi the Ethiopian threats, following Addis Ababa’s signing of a memorandum of understanding with the so-called separatist Republic of Somaliland, paving the way for the establishment of an Ethiopian military base and leasing the port of Berbera on the Red Sea for a period. Fifty years.

This was rejected by Cairo, even though it has not yet presented any vision or action plan to confront this Ethiopian encroachment on Somali lands.

For its part, Turkey has a strong presence in the two warring countries. In Somalia, there is the largest Turkish military base outside the country dedicated to training and qualifying Somali soldiers, and the two countries enjoy distinguished relations in the fields of economy and energy.

On the Ethiopian side, Ankara has a joint defense agreement with Addis Ababa, while half of Turkish investments in the African continent are concentrated in Ethiopia alone.

Therefore, Cairo, in cooperation with Ankara, can make a joint effort to bring views closer and prevent the division of Somalia, with the geostrategic repercussions it has on the national security system of the two countries in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab region.

Restoring Libyan unity

About four years ago, a military confrontation almost occurred between Egypt and Turkey in Libya, following the success of the legitimate government forces, supported by Ankara, in breaking the siege of the capital, Tripoli, and chasing Khalifa Haftar’s forces, towards the east, before they stopped on the borders of the city of Sirte.

Since then, all international and regional efforts have failed to end the division and reunite eastern and western Libya under the banner of a single government.

The new stage awaiting Turkish-Egyptian relations, with Erdogan’s expected visit, is an appropriate opportunity to discuss the Libyan file, in preparation for ending the division.

The Egyptian fears that were present in 2020 are no longer the same, especially with the normalization of Turkish-Emirati relations, and the decline of the two countries’ competition over Libyan lands.

The maritime border demarcation agreement between Turkey and Libya does not harm Egyptian national security. On the contrary, it gives Egypt approximately ten thousand additional kilometers over the area granted to it under the border demarcation agreement with Greece and the administration of southern Cyprus.

Which means that further dialogue between the two parties may be sufficient to resolve the situation in Libya, towards ending the division and restoring unity.

Demarcation of maritime borders

In my estimation, the first file that will be present on the two presidents’ discussions table, with regard to bilateral relations, is the file of maritime border demarcation, which Ankara attaches utmost importance to, in order to address the geostrategic distortions left by the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

As it resulted in Turkey not having any maritime spheres of influence, despite having the longest coastline in the eastern Mediterranean, and the insistence of Greece and its European back on strangling Turkey within what is known as the “Seville Map.” That is, Turkish influence in the Eastern Mediterranean is limited to the Antalya region! Which also deprived it of its rights to the wealth of the Eastern Mediterranean.

The maritime border demarcation agreement with Libya was one of the steps adopted by Turkey to resolve the crisis, but a similar demarcation with Egypt remains the subject of deep discussion between them.

Despite Ankara's generous offer to Cairo, the latter's connection to the Greece-South Cyprus-France axis still prevents reaching an agreement so far.

The economic file will also be strongly present on the table, as despite the deterioration of political relations between the two countries over the course of nearly ten years, this has not affected the continuation of economic relations between them, even if they are less than expected between two countries the size of Turkey and Egypt.

Therefore, it is expected that Erdogan's upcoming visit will give economic relations a strong push forward, as the two countries aspire to increase the volume of bilateral trade to $15 billion over the next five years, noting that more than 700 Turkish companies operate in Egypt with investments amounting to $2.5 billion. .

Finally, this anticipated visit must go beyond the past, leading to the launch of strategic cooperation between the two parties to stop the region’s massive bleeding.