Chronicle of an announced escalation. Iran crossed on Thursday, November 7, a new phase of its policy of phasing out the 2015 nuclear agreement, restarting uranium enrichment activities, hitherto frozen, in its underground site Fordo. This is the fourth phase of this disengagement strategy initiated on May 8, decided in response to the US unilateral withdrawal from the Vienna Pact of May 2018.
Since the withdrawal ordered by President Donald Trump, announced at the time despite assurances from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran was complying with the terms of the agreement, tensions have been steadily ride between Tehran and Washington. And this, to the rhythm of the waves of American sanctions striking the economy of the Islamic Republic.
"This is an important decision, the Iranian authorities take a new step, because with the Fordo site, which has some 1,000 centrifuges, Iran has significantly increased its uranium enrichment capacity, says Siavosh Ghazi, RFI's Iran correspondent for France 24. This means that Tehran is determined to go even further to accelerate its nuclear program, as enrichment capacity has reached the pre-2015 level. "
For its part, Washington on Thursday called on the international community to take "severe" measures to put pressure on Iran. "It is now time for all nations to reject the nuclear blackmail of this regime and take tough measures to increase the pressure," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement.
Asphyxiated by the sanctions, the Iranians raise the stakes and try, through this tussle, to prove to the United States that their policy of maximum pressure is ineffective and causes the opposite effect to that sought. Indeed, so far, Washington has not managed to bend Iran to negotiate a new more comprehensive and binding, while attempts to mediate, including France, remained dead letters.
"By gradually disengaging from certain clauses of the 2015 agreement, Iran is seeking to bring the United States to ease the sanctions, and at this time, perhaps, Tehran will say he is ready to discuss again," says Bruno Daroux , a specialist in international issues at France 24. A perspective that is not on the agenda for Americans.
"A kind of maximum resistance"
"This is a defensive strategy, a kind of maximum resistance to the policy of maximum pressure led by the Trump administration, continues Bruno Daroux.Iran refuses to give in and crosses yellow lines step by step, but not yet the line red, which consists of enriching uranium at 5%. "
Iran's Atomic Energy Organization spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi announced Thursday that Fordo's centrifuges will gradually ramp up to produce enriched uranium from Saturday morning. 4.5% in isotope 235. This is the maximum rate of enrichment to which Iran has limited itself since July, higher than the ceiling set by the Vienna Agreement (3.67%).
Enriched by up to 5%, uranium is used as a fuel for nuclear power plants, while 20% feeds research reactors. Beyond 90%, it can be used to make the atomic weapon. But paradoxically, it is much faster, by leverage, to go from 5 to 20% and 20 to 90% than from 0 to 3.67%.
"A response to the inaction of Europeans"
With this strategy, Iran also hopes to force the European parties signatory to the agreement (France, the United Kingdom and Germany) to keep their promises of compensation for US sanctions. Tehran is particularly saddened by the slow implementation of Instex (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges), a barter mechanism created in early 2019 for Iran by Europeans and intended to allow EU companies to business with Iran by avoiding using the dollar.
"This escalation is, of course, a response to US sanctions, which are hitting the Iranian economy hard, but it is also a response to the inaction of the Europeans who promised Tehran a year ago to take action. to offset these sanctions and allow the country to export its oil and restore its banking relationship with the rest of the world, "decrypts Siavosh Ghazi.
He added: "On November 5, some Iranian journalists were taken to the Natanz research site where new centrifuges were shown to them, even more modern and with much larger capacities than those currently in use. up to 50 times larger to enrich uranium, adds Siavosh Ghazi, which shows that the Iranian authorities are engaging in a very tough standoff with the West, threatening to further accelerate the country's nuclear activities, 'they remain inactive.'
In early September, Iran had hinted that it would be the full application of the 2015 agreement only if it is able to sell its oil and enjoy the money from these sales without hindrance. President Hassan Rohani gave Europeans another two months deadline, in an attempt to save the Vienna Pact, to find workarounds. If not, Iran will continue its disengagement policy.
"The position of the Europeans is not easy," concludes Bruno Daroux, "the Iranians are asking them, as well as Russia and China, to help them get around the American sanctions, only they can not oppose the pressure from the Trump administration without compromising their own economic interests in the United States. "