Does the West have cards to end the fighting in Sudan?

The guests of the episode of the program "Beyond the News" agreed that the expected impact of the international community on the ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces is limited, and that the available papers to exert any pressure on the parties to the conflict are few and ineffective.

In the episode of the program (2023/4/24), Dr. Abdul Hamid Siam, a former spokesman for the United Nations and an expert in its affairs, said that the ability of the international community to influence the conflict is small, and that most countries have no influence on the parties to the conflict in Sudan, even if they issued statements related to the current events in Sudan.

This comes against the backdrop of a statement by the European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, that the countries of the Union will continue to push for a political settlement to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, despite the evacuation of diplomats and European citizens from it, and his indication that the Union is in contact with the parties to the conflict to seek a ceasefire.

"There are specific countries that have a role in the Sudanese situation, especially the Gulf states, and even these countries that have privileged relations with the two parties or one of them, their capabilities at this stage to pressure the two parties are almost non-existent, because each side decided to win militarily over the other," Siam said.

In this context, he pointed out that military decisiveness is out of the question at this stage, as the fighting is taking place inside cities and neighborhoods, and in the presence of arms flows, adding: "Whoever thinks that the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, can be defeated quickly is mistaken, especially after revealing what weapons he has, and it seems that he was preparing for this confrontation."

Misfortune Guide

Siam considered that the current efforts focused on the evacuation of civilians, and what countries are doing in this context, is an ominous sign that the confrontations will continue, and that the scenario of South Sudan between Salva Kiir and Machar may be repeated, as the confrontations lasted two years or more, and this is what Sudan cannot bear in light of the deterioration of its humanitarian situation significantly.

While agreeing on the limited external influence in the ongoing conflict, Sudanese writer and political researcher Mohamed Torchin believes that the European Union is the most keen to return the situation to what it was before, and to reach relative stability that helps tighten control for fear of refugee flows, and that Sudan is a transit for terrorists.

Regarding the position of the United States, Torchin believes that its move is closely related to the role of Russian Wagner in the scene, referring in this context to a statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in which he talked about his country's concern about the presence of Wagner in the equation.

While noting that there is pressure on both sides of the conflict by the American side to stop the fighting, the Sudanese writer suggests that Washington, which has high heels in the scene, "waits a little" before issuing a final position on the situation in Sudan.

He believes in his speech to "Beyond the News" that the position of the international community is linked to what will be issued by the UN Security Council in the session to be held tomorrow, Tuesday, ruling out the possibility of relying on "international intersections and tensions to impose a peaceful reality or a political settlement in Sudan."

Difference and initiative

At the same time, however, Turchin has observed a recent statement by the two sides that is different from the apparent escalation at the beginning of the confrontations, as he sees a degree of flexibility and presence to talk about the need for understandings to stop the fighting.

In this context, he pointed out that there is an initiative that has not yet been confirmed, which adopts arranging a meeting for army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan with Hemedti in Riyadh, and that this initiative is supported by Gulf and European countries as well as the United Nations, in an attempt to reach these understandings.

Ambassador James Moran, former adviser on the Middle East and North Africa at the European Union's External Action Service, believes that the top priority for the European side was the safety of its diplomats and citizens, while later this comes pressure on the parties to the conflict to sit at the negotiating table to stop this destructive conflict.

The European ambassador agreed with the other two guests of the "Beyond the News" program, on the limited impact on the parties to the conflict, pointing out that the "cards are very limited" with the European Union, as sanctions have already been imposed on Sudan since the Darfur crisis, and there are no other sanctions that can be imposed.

In the context of justifying the weak influence in Sudan, Moran said that the talk here is related to two heavily armed factions, and therefore it is necessary at the beginning to be careful not to provide weapons to either of them from external parties, referring in this context to reports that talk about support by the Russian "Wagner" for Hemedti's forces.