International reports that monitor the levels of fragility in the world indicate that fragility is increasing around the world, and that the magnitude of the crises experienced by fragile states is jeopardizing the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals halfway. Fragile entities represent 1.9 billion people, or about 24% of the world's population, and this figure is expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2030, and 3.1 billion by 2050, about a third of the world's population.

World Bank: Fragility, conflict and violence have become the new front of development efforts, and by 2030, at least half of the world's poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected environments

Fragile States

The U.S. Strategy for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization defines fragile states and regions as those that are exposed to armed conflict, large-scale violence, or other instability, including an inability to manage transnational threats or other major shocks. Fragility results from ineffective or unaccountable governance, as well as poor social cohesion, corruption of institutions or leaders, and lack of respect for human rights.

According to the World Bank Group's Fragility and Violence Strategy 2020-2025, fragility, conflict and violence have become the new front for development efforts, and by 2030, at least half of the world's poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected environments. The impact of fragility, conflict and violence is severe on the most vulnerable people and communities, whose livelihoods and economic opportunities are at risk. Situations of fragility have deteriorated significantly in the world, with more violent conflicts than at any time in the past 80 years; the largest forced displacement crisis since World War II, levels of interpersonal and gang violence have risen, and conflicts have become the cause of <>% of all humanitarian needs.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), fragility is a combination of vulnerability and the weak capacity of a state, system or communities to adapt to manage, absorb or mitigate these risks. In its 2022 Fragility Report, the organization classified 60 entities – between countries and regions – as fragile. Among them are 9 Arab countries: Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Iraq, Libya, Mauritania, Djibouti, Somalia and the occupied Palestinian territories, and 21 Islamic countries: 15 countries from Africa (Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Mali, Uganda, Mozambique, Guinea, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Togo, Benin, Ivory Coast and Gambia), and 6 countries from Asia (Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Iran and Bangladesh), a total of 30 countries, which means that half of the fragile countries - according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - are Arab countries and Islamic.

More than 500 million people in fragile entities live in extreme poverty, a figure equivalent to 73% of the world's extreme poor population, and projected to reach 2030% in 86.

Fragility indicators

The Fund for Peace Foundation, a non-profit organization founded in 1975, based in Washington, D.C., has issued an annual report on the state of fragility of political entities in the world since 2006, and has identified 12 indicators to measure the degree of fragility, distributed as follows:

First: Cohesion Indicators

Security situation

Such as bombings, attacks, and deaths related to battles, insurgencies, insurgencies, coups, or terrorism, as well as organized crime and murder, and the perceived level of citizens' trust in internal security. The security apparatus may extend beyond the military or traditional police forces to include private state-sponsored or state-backed militias that terrorize political opponents, as well as deep ones that serve the interests of a particular leader or political clique.

Factional elites

It refers to elites distributed along ethnic, class, clan, ethnic, or religious lines, which influence the use of nationalist political discourse by ruling elites, often in terms of nationalism, xenophobia, societal unification and calls for ethnic cleansing or defense of the faith.

Collective grievance

This index monitors the collective grievances of different groups, which indicate divisions between them, especially those based on social or political characteristics, their role in accessing services or resources, and integration into the political process.

Second: Economic Indicators

Economic deterioration

Such as a deterioration in per capita income or gross national product, an increase in unemployment rates, inflation, a decline in the level of productivity, debt, increased levels of poverty, or business failure. As well as a sudden decline in commodities, trade revenues, foreign investment, and any collapse or devaluation of the national currency. The index also takes into account illicit trade, such as drug and human trafficking, capital flight, or corruption and illicit transactions such as money laundering and embezzlement.

Unequal economic development

Such as structural inequalities that are based on discrimination between population groups on the basis of race, religion, or color, or on the basis of education, economic status, or region, as well as inequalities that can reinforce societal tensions or nationalist discourse.

Brain drain

This indicator takes into account the economic impact of human displacement (for economic or political reasons) and the consequences that this may have on the development of the country.

Third: Political Indicators

State legitimacy

This indicator measures the extent of government representation, openness, and relationship with citizens, the level of trust of the population in state institutions and operations, and the effects of the lack of such trust, manifested through mass public demonstrations, ongoing civil disobedience, or the rise of armed insurgencies. It also takes into account the integrity of the elections, the nature of political transitions, the degree to which the government represents the population it governs, and levels of corruption, profiteering, marginalization, persecution or exclusion of opposition groups.

State Public Services

Such as the existence of basic state functions that serve the people, such as the provision of basic services, such as health, education, water and sanitation, transportation infrastructure, electricity, energy, the Internet, and communication, the extent to which the state is able to protect its citizens from terrorism and violence, and the state's service to the ruling elites narrowly, such as security services, presidential employees, and diplomats.

Human rights and the rule of law

This indicator takes into account the extent to which the state respects its people, the extent to which it protects basic human rights and freedoms, and whether there is widespread violation of legal, political and social rights, such as restrictions on the press, politicization of the judiciary, use of the army for internal political purposes, and repression of political opponents.

Second: Social and Intersecting Indicators

Population pressure

Pressure related to food supplies, access to safe drinking water, and other resources that sustain life or health from the spread of disease and epidemics. Pressures resulting from high population growth rates, unbalanced population distributions, or sharply varying population growth rates between competing societal groups. The index also takes into account pressures arising from extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts and environmental hazards.

Refugees and displaced persons

This index measures the pressure on states caused by the forced displacement of large communities due to social, political, environmental or other reasons, as well as refugee flows to others. The index also measures the situation of refugees by country of asylum, the country's ability to absorb displaced persons and refugees, the pressures caused by population flows on public services, and future humanitarian and security challenges, especially if that country does not have the capacity to absorb and sufficient resources.

External interference

The index measures the impact of external interference on state performance, particularly security and the economy.

The following are the most prominent data on the vulnerability indicators included in the OECD report on the sixty entities it identified:

  • Population: These entities represent 1.9 billion people, or about 24% of the world's population, and this figure is expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2030, and to 3.1 billion by 2050, or about 32% of the world's population.
  • Poverty level: More than 500 million people in these entities live in extreme poverty, a figure equivalent to 73% of the world's total population living in extreme poverty, and it is expected that in 2030 their percentage will reach 86%.
  • Economic growth: 33 of these entities are considered middle-income entities.
  • Food insecurity: 48 of these fragile entities are food insecure, out of a total of 53 globally.
  • Climate and environment: Although fragile states account for only 4% of the world's carbon emissions, they are home to 29% of the world's natural disasters and 46% of the deaths caused by these disasters globally in the period 2019-2021.
  • Youth: 26% of youth in these entities lack employment, education or training.
  • Violence: 80% of crisis and conflict deaths globally are concentrated in fragile states in 2021.
  • Governance: Of the 38 authoritarian entities globally, 59 are classified as authoritarian entities, and the rest are fragile regimes or flawed democracies.
  • Women: One in 3 women experience physical violence in fragile entities.
  • Forced displacement: 64% of the world's displaced population and 80% of the displaced are fragile entities.

The 2022 Fragile States Index report by the Fund for Peace Foundation indicated that the worst countries this year are: Myanmar, Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Haiti and Lebanon.

(To be continued... Biden's Fragility Plan?)