Well, if this is not a radical overcoming of long-term trends (our leadership, and this is well known, is generally not very inclined to radical steps, especially in the field of the economy, it much more likes balance and balance), then at least it is completely definitely a move in the right direction: yesterday, President Putin signed a law on a new budget rule, which implies a rather serious mitigation for 2023-2024.
The same document also provides for an increase in the tax burden on the country's gas and oil industries in 2023-2025, which we will also discuss below.
But the main thing here is the softening of the budget rule.
About the need for what (and for purely practical reasons as well) from serious and responsible people in our economy, regardless of, so to speak, belonging to any "political spectrum", who just did not speak.
When the question arises of survival, this is far from the right time for discussions on abstract ideological topics.
And the question (and hardly anyone would dare to argue about this in our troubled days) is exactly that.
And that means that it becomes not very important what color the cat is and what its name is, as long as it catches mice.
In short, in this particular case, we do not need budget-forming documents as something valuable in itself.
And even more so, not as the “highest goal” of state policy, but exclusively as a working, pragmatic tool.
And this document just more or less corresponds to this parameter.
At least, as the developers themselves noted, the updated design of the budget rule, although it will retain the basic principles of “balancing costs and the use of rental super-incomes” so kind to our financial departments in unfavorable periods, will nevertheless still make it possible, even within the framework of the budget rule, to provide support to the economy countries in the period of adaptation to new conditions.
Not to mention the fact that the signed document gives the government of the Russian Federation the right to promptly make independent decisions on the provision of state guarantees in 2023, which are not provided for (this is important!) by programs of such guarantees.
Moreover, in the manner and under the conditions that the government itself will establish, without getting bogged down in a series of endless approvals and / or, to be honest, the activities of certain lobbying groups.
The main goal of the applied hardware efforts is often the simple shelving of a competitive program, regardless of state needs (as an example, let's just recall the president's dissatisfaction with the implementation of national projects, it was quite obvious).
Here, both from the point of view of decision-making and from the point of view of certainty in personal responsibility for failures, as we see, the hands of the domestic cabinet of ministers will be untied.
You can work.
Well, in addition to this, the law also allows, if necessary, the provision of state loans that are not provided for by the program for providing state financial and export loans.
So far, however, within the total amount of funds for its implementation.
Or by reducing the balance of the budget of the Russian Federation.
But even so, this is a very serious step forward.
And by the way, a sign of trust in the executive branch of government.
That is, if not carte blanche, then a very high degree of freedom in decision-making.
Well, a completely different degree of responsibility for them is, as it were, by itself.
Now some details.
Most importantly, the Budget Code fixes the volume of basic oil and gas revenues that can be used for spending in 2023-2025 in absolute terms at the level of 8 trillion rubles with further annual indexation of 4% starting from 2026.
And, according to the developers, set out in the relevant explanatory note to the project, this should ensure sufficient stability of budget expenditures, regardless of the volatility of the market situation.
And also to minimize the impact of the volatility of oil and gas revenues on the economy.
And here, of course, there is a certain vulnerability: such a scenario, of course, can be realized only if the current conservative assessments of external conditions are consistent.
And also with a stable exchange rate in the corridor of 65-75 rubles per dollar.
Meanwhile, the history of modern times is increasingly convincing us that standards, especially in the turbulent world of financial speculation, no longer exist.
And a currency, even a reserve one, has long been not only a means of mutual settlements, but also a banal commodity.
And the risks here are even greater, excuse me, not at all with our ruble: the risk of turbulence in the global monetary system at present is such that to predict anything with confidence in this area, one must either be very brave or completely give up on own reputation.
However, to predict the possibility of a global collapse is a backbone for us, but still in many ways a “technical” document on changes to the Budget Code, probably, and is not obliged.
Therefore, it is oriented towards a moderately conservative forecast.
And in the event of a catastrophic scenario, we dare to hope that completely different documents will be used.
With such a development of events, in any case, it is not the budget that is subject to study by the user, but the combat charter.
Anyway.
In any case, even the fundamental opponents of the budget rule as such (to be honest, the author of this article is also one of them) are forced to agree that in the current conditions and with those inertial processes that are currently underway in our economy, a complete rejection of the rule looks risky to say the least.
And for the most part, it doesn't make sense.
And the law signed by the president on mitigation, and not on the complete abolition of this mechanism, looks balanced enough to become a working tool both for maintaining stability (and this is perhaps the most important of our achievements at the moment), and for developing the country in current harsh conditions.
But the development is not hysterical, but still more or less corresponding to the status of a great country.
As for the increase in the tax burden on oil and gas workers, it also looks, although unpleasant for the industry (who is happy with the increase in taxes?), but reasonable.
And most importantly - though heavy, but quite feasible.
So, in particular, as an example, the document provides for an additional withdrawal from Gazprom in 2023-2025 of 50 billion rubles a month.
And although we emphasize: for any enterprise, even the most powerful, this is quite unpleasant, it will be very funny if someone tries to argue that our flagship will not be able to pull this exemption.
As for the income tax for LNG exporters, it will increase to 34% in 2023-2025, which will also increase federal budget revenues in 2023.
For what and why this is done is also clear.
We're at war, sorry.
Still, the main thing in this document is not even specific verifiable figures, which, of course, is also important for making responsible decisions.
First of all, let us emphasize, this is a specific working document that will help overcome uncertainty, primarily in the minds of the performers.
You could say it's a direction indicator.
And in our rather troubled times in every sense of the word, this is really important.
Including for a banal understanding of the same - at least economic - "image of the future" for our country.
About which we are all so different, but at the same time - I dare to hope!
- this country is equally loving, we talk so much and willingly in recent times.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.