Well, as follows from the data of the London ICE exchange, literally in just one day of trading on this exchange floor of the proud and ancient capital of Great Britain, which has seen a lot, it really smelled of an impending cold snap: the price of the December gas futures already reached $1,150 per 1,000 barrels in the afternoon. cubic meters (at the same time, from the moment of opening, gas prices immediately increased by a solid 10.9%).
And this alone looked like a real pre-winter.
But late in the evening, stock prices for gas in Europe even accelerated the growth rate to 20% and, judging by the reports of news agencies, on Monday at 19:42 Moscow time, they reached quite impressive values - $ 1,245 per thousand cubic meters, so, just for a second .
At the same time, let us recall that if on Monday morning at the beginning of trading the cost of gas futures for December on this most decisive for Europe London ICE was only $1065.5, then by evening it had grown by almost $200 by $194.5) for the same thousand cubic meters of blue fuel, which is increasingly scarce in anticipation of the impending cold weather.
Which, in general, you will agree, is impressive: even though stock figures have been very crafty lately and have a very indirect relation to real markets, they reflect the “expectation trends” quite adequately.
And despite the fact that European officials are desperately waving, like a leaf of last hope, the latest results of the seasonal forecast of meteorologists from the European analytical center Copernicus, predicting an "anomalously warm winter", this is still not quite the data that serious people can operate in serious business.
Forecasters, of course, can issue any necessary weather forecast by order of respected people.
But the weather itself can fundamentally and completely disagree with this forecast, by the way, with impunity.
In general, as the soulless science of statistics tells us, this happens quite often.
And in general, it is somehow difficult to build forecasts of the energy well-being of the whole continent based on the forecast of weather forecasters, albeit authoritative and funded by the same EU.
Also in anticipation of the “anomalously warm winter” predicted by them, by these same weather forecasters.
By the way, doesn’t this remind you of how shamans and other village sorcerers in previous centuries caused rain, according to the corresponding ritual dances, sacrifices and other beatings of a tambourine?
Sometimes, by the way, it could even be lucky ...
We have also encountered this in our country, and more than once.
Even Comrade Stalin joked about this, according to the famous tale about a conversation with a weather forecaster, that, they say, "and you predict the opposite."
Then it is more likely to come true, with all due respect to the people of this really heroic profession.
Anyway.
In any case, entering the winter with such a margin of safety as “a favorable weather forecast” and “fullness of underground storage facilities”, which are intended solely for insurance during peak loads, is, sorry, somewhat frivolous.
Here, in principle, the European markets, in contrast to the European functionaries, also think something like this.
Therefore, futures prices, despite all the spells, go up decisively.
And although tomorrow they can go down in the same way, this is not so important.
In itself, such volatility in the center of European pricing located for some reason across the English Channel is a very, very unpleasant sign for the European energy industry, which is already teetering on the very edge.
Although quite expected, of course.
Of the respected experts (which is typical, including Western ones), at least, no one wrote about such a scenario for the development of events as a very likely one.
What can be said here.
Everything is really so.
Autumn in Europe in the last few years has generally become a time of unpleasant and dank cold winds, which, as a rule, come from the east.
And if you haven't noticed yet, the critical volatility in energy prices coming exclusively from the West.
So far, by the way, prices for the same gas for the continent were set in the east, along the Berlin-Moscow line, and according to the so-called oil price formula, everything was still more or less normal.
Albeit not without shyness and roughness.
But as soon as they began to be installed in the West - in London on the ICE exchange in agreement with the Dutch TTF hub - this disgrace immediately began.
Well, okay: spot prices "with delivery for tomorrow", by the way, are far behind the futures for December.
But that's just for now.
Autumn, especially late, is also a time of waiting.
And it looks like the markets are not waiting for anything good.
The result, excuse me, is on the scoreboard.
The reason, in general, is simple: the catastrophe, which is becoming more and more distinct in the real energy markets of the European subcontinent, has little to do with either the weather or the wishes of European officials.
Moreover, to be honest, it is connected rather indirectly with the special military operation of the Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine, as well as with the accompanying sanctions.
Yes, these sanctions certainly served as a trigger for accelerating the crisis processes.
But now it is already obvious: maybe not so actively developing, but the systemic and catastrophic energy crisis in Europe was, apparently, inevitable.
Moreover, it would be rather naive not to expect it.
Everyone is well aware that the current "crisis autumn" began on the continent not now and not in connection with the "sudden" late November, but still cooling.
Here we can recall quite a few stages of this long journey: the unrest of the “Arab spring”, which, in fact, cut off Europe from the energy resources of North Africa, and the explosions at the Nord Streams, like a cherry on the cake of the Ukrainian crisis, cut off energy supplies from the east.
And now diligently forgotten by everyone "policy of the green transition."
Into which a really cosmic amount of money needed for the energy sector was swelled with in advance, in general, a more or less understood negative result.
And if you dig deeper, the diligent work of the Latvian European Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs, begun back in the 2000s, who, under the vigorous leadership of British consultants, began that, God forgive me, “market reform”, thanks to which the price of gas in continental Europe began to be determined by financial speculators in London .
But what is probably the most important thing in what is happening, this “crisis autumn” began even when Europe decided that it was possible to give its political sovereignty to allies from across the ocean, in return leaving itself economic independence and prosperity.
As it turned out, it was an illusion and self-deception.
Economic sovereignty without political sovereignty simply does not exist.
What happened next was a matter of time and technology: well, the time for this “autumn crisis” and, excuse me, has come.
It just couldn't help coming, especially so (sorry for the involuntary tautology) at a time when the partner overseas economy also needs to be saved.
And no matter what the cost.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.