When the second filling of the Renaissance Dam is completed... these are the expected damages to Egypt and Sudan

After about 10 years of fruitless negotiations between Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa in order to reach a fair and binding tripartite agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, matters reached an impasse.

After Ethiopia officially notified Egypt and Sudan, respectively, of the start of the process of filling the dam with water, the question arises strongly, what are the expected negative effects on both Egypt and Sudan?

numbers and statistics

The level of the middle passage of the dam is 560 meters above sea level, and it is about 10 meters above the upper level of the two drainage holes.

- The Ethiopian side succeeded in completing the heightening of the middle corridor of the Renaissance Dam with an additional height of 4 meters, allowing it to store about 6 billion cubic meters during the month of July.

- While continuing to raise the middle passage to 30 meters as scheduled, the Ethiopians can, during the month of August, complete the remainder of the quota to be stored, which is 13.5 billion cubic meters.

When the ramp is completed to 30 meters and if Ethiopia succeeds in filling 13.5 billion cubic meters into the dam lake, the flood water will pass from the top of the middle passage, on its way to Egypt and Sudan, along with the water that passes from the turbine holes, estimated at 50 million cubic meters per day .

With the completion of the second filling, the total stored water will be 18.5 billion cubic meters, with the potential for another 3 billion cubic meters to be lost due to evaporation and leakage in voids and cracks, according to the water resources expert.

Observers believe that the ramp will be only about 15 meters instead of 30 meters, and with a storage capacity of 7 billion cubic meters instead of 13.5 billion cubic meters.

First: the expected damages to Sudan from filling the dam

According to information obtained by Al-Jazeera correspondent from official sources and experts in the field of water and dams, these are the damages that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could inflict on Sudan.

- In the event of the collapse of the Renaissance Dam, most of the Sudanese dams, cities and villages will disappear with it.

About 50,000 feddans out of 100,000 feddans that depend on spate irrigation, most of which are located in the states of the Nile River, Blue Nile and Sennar, will be negatively affected directly after the dam is completed.

Threatening an estimated 20 million people in 3 agricultural seasons after the dam is completed.

The drop in the water level in the Blue Nile River will transform irrigation in comfort into high-cost irrigation, especially with the lack of electricity and petroleum materials in the country.

Seizing the silt in front of the dam will deprive Sudan of the natural nourishment for its lands, which requires the use of industrial fertilizers, whether by import or manufacturing, which requires greater amounts of electricity than they will get from the Renaissance Dam.

Seizing the silt in front of the Renaissance Dam will stop the red brick industry.

The Renaissance Dam lake will flood tree forests, which poses an environmental threat to fisheries.

Any shortfall in the flow of the Blue Nile will have serious consequences for Sudan, as there are no large storage dams that can compensate for this expected shortfall.

The low level of groundwater, which increases the costs of raising it, in addition to the shortage of available groundwater quantities.

- The possibility of a decrease in the quantities of water received from the Blue Nile during the period from April to the end of September of each year, and the direct impact of this is the lack of water coming to drinking water stations.

With the filling of the Renaissance Dam, the White Nile River sector is affected between the two regions of the two mountains in southern Sudan to Jebel Awliya, south of the capital, Khartoum, which leads to a reduction in the areas of cliffs and pastures due to the failure to completely empty the lake of Jebel Awliya Dam.

The water quantities will decrease in the main Nile River sector from Khartoum to the city of Atbara, north of Khartoum, and the levels will decrease significantly.

The absence of information and data and the failure to reach a binding agreement to fill and operate the Renaissance Dam due to the Ethiopian side’s refusal will have a significant negative impact on the operation of the Roseires reservoir.

- The Roseires reservoir depends in its operation on the natural river revenue, and now it will depend on the quantities of the river received from the Renaissance Dam, and therefore the absence of a binding and satisfactory agreement for all parties will constitute a great danger.

The first filling of the Renaissance Dam led to a week of thirst and affected irrigation and the needs of livestock, homes and industry.

The second filling of the dam is a water bomb, because filling requires pumping larger quantities of water than the capacity of the Sudanese dams built on the Blue Nile River, which threatens the occurrence of disasters.

Second: the damage that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could cause to Egypt

According to information obtained by Al-Jazeera correspondent from official data, scientific studies and evaluations of experts specialized in the field of water and dams, these are the damages that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could inflict on Egypt.

The risks increase in drought years and extended drought, as well as in the case of rapid filling of the Renaissance Dam reservoir, and this explains Egypt's adherence to the need for a binding legal agreement for mobilization and operation, and that this be in accordance with fixed and specific rules that cannot be changed unilaterally.

The erosion of the agricultural area in varying rates, according to some studies and expert estimates, amounting to about a third of the Egyptian agricultural area.

A study prepared by academics at American universities, including the Egyptian academic at NASA, Dr. Essam Heggy, and recently published in the journal "Environmental Research Letters", says that the Egyptian agricultural area is threatened with an alarming decline of 72% in one of the worst scenarios.

Some studies say that every 5 billion cubic meters of water decreases from Egypt's share, which means that one million acres of the total agricultural area in Egypt, which amounts to about 8.5 million acres, are destroyed.

The aforementioned American academic study considers that Egypt’s water resources are threatened with a decline of 31 billion cubic meters annually, which is equivalent to more than double Egypt’s annual share of the Nile water, which amounts to 55.5 billion cubic meters, if Ethiopia adheres to the rapid filling of the dam’s reservoir, which accommodates 74 billion meters. The study also believes that the loss may reach 43 billion if the mobilization is completed in only 3 years.

The study also expected that the per capita national product in Egypt would decrease by up to 8%, and then the unemployment rate would reach about 25%.

The erosion of the Egyptian delta, and perhaps even the disappearance of parts of it, as a result of the decline in the level of the Nile, which leads to the entry of Mediterranean waters and an increase in soil salinity rates

The depletion of groundwater reserves, which is the second source of water in Egypt, as some studies say that the groundwater reserves are threatened by the loss of 6 billion cubic meters of water only due to the possible decline in the water level in Lake Nasser in front of the High Dam.

The decline of the Nile fish wealth, which is a major source for the Egyptians, especially tilapia and mullet.

In the event of the wrong operation of the Renaissance Dam, the electricity production from the High Dam may also be damaged and may stop working completely in the event of a significant decline in the river level for many years, during which withdrawals are made from the reservoir of Lake Nasser feeding the High Dam to compensate for the decline in the flow of the Nile, which leads to a decrease in the level of the Nile The lake to levels may not be able to operate the dam's turbines.

According to what some experts say, in the worst case scenario, which is the rapid filling scenario, approximately 4 million and 750 thousand agricultural workers will lose their source of income, which amounts to about three quarters of the sector’s workers.

As for the most optimistic scenario, which is the filling over 29 years and clear rules of operation, Egypt will lose 3 billion cubic meters of water annually, a loss that can be compensated and dealt with by alternative solutions, especially since the country has already entered the water poverty area according to the United Nations standard that determines the share of water. Annual per capita water is about one thousand cubic meters, while the per capita share in Egypt currently does not exceed half of this limit.

Increasing rates of desertification and the climatic changes that could be caused by this, represented in fluctuations in the weather and sharp rises in temperatures.

Away from these environmental and economic losses, experts point to cultural, heritage and civilizational losses, as they consider the Nile for Egypt to be more than just an economic resource insofar as it is a component of the state and one of its features since time immemorial.