The historical, ethnic, religious, and political factors interacted, and the succession of empires and invaders, in drawing the nature of the conflict over the Nagorno Karabakh region, after the First World War and the first conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region in 1918, the Soviet era cast its shadows on the Caucasus region, and the Soviets adopted geographical and ethnic divisions that did not take into account the demographic specifics And nationalism, to tighten control over the vast space of the Union and its peoples.
The conflict lurked behind the totalitarian Soviet power for decades.
But his hanging remnants re-ignited the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan once the USSR collapsed in the late 1980s, and its rounds often ended in a shaky truce.
The last war, which broke out on September 27, 2020, lasted for about 6 weeks, in which the Azerbaijani forces made great and decisive military progress, and they settled on the outskirts of the regional capital, Stepanakert, so that the field facts led to the signing of the November 10 agreement.
Looking at the founding factors of the conflict, the nature of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan - of which the Nagorno Karabakh region is one of the most important factors - can be understood as being primarily an ethnic conflict based on nationalist tendencies, and carrying a legacy of hostility between the Azerbaijanis, Armenians and Turks, as fed by the Soviet totalitarian era through surgeries. Ethnicity, attempts to change demographics, and manipulation of geography to establish control.
The conflict has become over time, especially in the past two decades, a regional and international conflict, and a field of geopolitical competition related to interests, and a vital area for states, especially between Russia, Turkey, the United States, Iran, the European Union and Israel.
A chronic conflict with regional and international dimensions
Nagorno Karabakh ... a 100-year conflict
Nagorny Karabakh is one of the regions of Azerbaijan, and its capital is Stepanakert (after the Armenian Bolshevik leader Stepan Shahumyan), and it is a unilaterally declared republic and not recognized internationally, under the name of the Republic (Artsakh).
Its current president is Araik Harutyunyan, and the region is located 270 km west of the Azerbaijani capital Baku.
With an area of about 4,400 square kilometers, it is a resource-poor region that is predominantly mountainous, and its inhabitants depend mainly on agriculture.
Nagorny is a Russian word meaning heights or mountains, while Karabakh in Turkish means the black garden.
That is, Nagorny Karabakh is a translation of the heights of the Black Garden, and the Armenians living in the region call it "Artsakh".
As for the Azeris, they know it as "Yokhari Karabakh" or "Supreme Karabakh".
The population (according to a census conducted by the Armenian authorities in January 2016) is 148.1 thousand, representing Armenians (the overwhelming majority of them belong to the Armenian Orthodox Church), including about 95% of the population, and the region has been the meeting point of several empires such as Russian, Ottoman and Persian. It made it the scene of several changes, especially in its population composition.
Nakhchivan region ... an Azerbaijani enclave inside Armenia
It is also called Nakhjuan, the Azerbaijani Autonomous Region, its area is about 5363 square kilometers, and it is geographically separated from the rest of Azerbaijan, and it is located southwest of Armenia, and crossing it requires from Azerbaijan to pass either through the Iranian province of Western Azerbaijan or Armenia, and the region allows Azerbaijan, geographical contact with Turkey, through a window that is only 8 kilometers wide, its capital is the city of Nakhchivan.
The name of the territory was the Soviet Socialist Republic, Nakhchivan from March 1921, then the Nakhchivan Land from June 16, 1923, the Nakhchivan Autonomous, Socialist, Soviet Republic from February 9, 1924, and finally, Nakhchivan, Autonomous Republic on November 17 / November 1990.
The region, which is bordered by Iran to the south and Turkey to the west, is distinguished by its fertile lands and charming nature, and has been bombed in the ongoing battles. Among the most famous of its citizens are the current President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and his father, the former President Heydar Aliyev (1923-2003).
Among the most important gains achieved by Azerbaijan in the November 10 ceasefire agreement is that it extracted approval to open a corridor through Armenia between it and the region, which is a strategic shift in Baku’s relationship with its administrative region.
Armenia and Azerbaijan .. basic information
Military scales ... Azerbaijan has a stronger arsenal
The field situation changed after the September 2020 war
Azerbaijan launched a 6-week military campaign on the region in September 2020, with the result that it was able to regain 5 Azerbaijani regions that the Armenians occupied in 1994 in the vicinity of Karabakh, and to restore the strategic city of Shushi within the region, and the agreement sponsored by Moscow on 9-10 November ended The second is the withdrawal of the Armenians from two other provinces that had been occupied in 1994.
Two leaders and a renewed struggle
Ilham Aliyev inherited the presidency of Azerbaijan from his father, Haider after his death in 2003, and he who ruled the country with iron and fire since 1969, as a representative of the Soviet Union, then president after its collapse, and he will bequeath it to his wife, who was appointed as his deputy in 2017, Aliyev's record in human rights is almost among the worst. In the world, as he rigged elections, prevents opponents from competing with him, journalists, activists and human rights defenders are detained in his prisons.
Nevertheless, he is Western in passion, sending oil and gas to Europe and Israel without being counted, and showing a pattern of Islam that is described as "moderate and modern," and the West exchanges affection for it.
Aliyev, who was born in 1961, presents himself to his people as an educated politician who speaks 5 languages, as an international leader with a large number of decorations and medals, as an academic thinker honored by world universities, and even as a sports hero who won many championships.
He worked to enhance the strength of his army, and made his country among the most armed in relation to the number of the population, and did not see a country harboring hostility to his country like Armenia, Aliyev believes that Armenia occupies parts of his country in Nagorny Karabakh, and doubts the efficacy of the negotiations;
But he wants Turkey, his regional ally, to be a party.
After signing the comprehensive ceasefire agreement sponsored by Russia, Aliyev said that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a "surrender document" under the weight of the Azerbaijani military victories, considering what happened was a "historic event" for his country.
It was not possible for Pashinyan to become prime minister of Armenia until after a revolution like the one in the country in 2018. He started his political career as an activist while studying at Yerevan University, from which he was expelled due to his orientations in 1995. While studying, he worked as a journalist, a profession that he preserved Despite the troubles it brought, until 2012, when he was arrested in 2010, and after he was convicted of demonstrations and civil disobedience, he was sentenced to 7 years in prison, of whom he served less than two years before he was released with a pardon from the authorities.
During his detention, his name emerged as one of the internationally known prisoners of conscience.
After that, he participated in political work as a party leader, then as a member of parliament, until he led the movement that sparked the Velvet Revolution in April and May 2018.
Pashinyan's radical positions at home were reflected in his position on Nagorny Karabakh. For 26 years, the issue has been rather calm;
However, the situation deteriorated after the statements of his defense minister in March 2019, in front of a crowd of his citizens in New York, in which he said that Armenia might launch a new war to obtain new land, as well as his statements in which he said, "Karabakh is Armenian, nothing more, no less."
Pashinyan and his forces could not withstand the last war in the face of the Azerbaijani superiority and the rapid advance of his army, which is on the outskirts of the provincial capital, Stepanakert, which forced him to accept the ceasefire agreement, which he considered "indescribably painful to me personally and for our people." Pashinyan faces massive demonstrations demanding With his departure as a reaction to his signing of the agreement, the Armenian security services announced that they had thwarted an attempt to assassinate him, which was behind a number of opposition leaders.
Minsk Group ... an international framework that has not defused the war
Meeting of the Minsk group in Vienna around Karabakh (Reuters)
The Minsk Group, affiliated with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), was established in March 1992 to find a peaceful solution to the crisis that began with Armenia's occupation of the Karabakh region and other Azeri provinces.
The group includes 17 members, including Turkey;
However, it was headed by only 3 countries, namely France, Russia, and the United States. These countries were unable to solve the crisis or implement Security Council resolutions, which stipulate an end to the Armenian occupation.
"Minsk" faced accusations of bias with the administration of Armenia in the Karabakh conflict.
Because of the pressures exerted by the Armenian minorities in those countries, especially the United States and France, the game of interests, influence and political changes complicates the process of resolving the crisis.
November 10 agreement .. will it end the conflict?
Aliyev and Putin sign the November agreement via video link (European News Agency)
Since the outbreak of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 1988, the battles ended with a fragile armistice and incomplete agreements, which were soon revoked, so that the battles would resume without resolving the military situation in the region.
However, the recent agreement, which was sponsored by Russia, and after negotiations with the Turkish side, resulted in new military field facts, as the Azerbaijani side was clearly superior, which liberated large areas of the region in lightning battles and reached the borders of its capital, Stepanakert, which was clear from the inability of Armenia. To withstand or a long military confrontation, and the entry of Turkey and Russia to the line of crisis may contribute to making this agreement successful.
The terms of the agreement
In a special speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he and his Armenian and Azeri counterparts signed a joint declaration on a comprehensive ceasefire in the Nagorno Karabakh region under Russian auspices, and President Aliyev described it as "historic", and it came after negotiations in which Turkey participated, and the agreement provides for The following items:
- To declare a complete ceasefire from midnight on November 10, Moscow time, and the Azerbaijani and Armenian armies to stop in their positions, and the parties pledged to exchange prisoners of war.
- Armenia will return the Kalbgar region to Azerbaijan by November 15, and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020, leaving under its control the Lachin Corridor 5 kilometers wide, which will ensure the connection of Karabakh with Armenia, and this point does not apply to the strategic city of Shushi. Baku announced its liberation on 8 November.
By November 20, 2020, Armenia will hand over the Agdam region to Azerbaijan and the part of the Azerbaijani Gazakh region it occupies.
A Russian peace-keeping unit of 1960 military personnel, with 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 pieces of special equipment, will be deployed along the line of contact in Karabakh and along the Lachin Corridor, in conjunction with the withdrawal of the Armenian army.
The stay of the Russian forces was limited to 5 years, with automatic renewal for additional periods of 5 years, if none of the parties to the agreement decided to withdraw from it.
- A plan will be determined during the next three years to build a new traffic road along the Lachin Corridor, to provide and ensure communication between Stepanakert and Armenia, with the Russian peacekeeping unit to be redeployed later to protect this route.
Azerbaijan undertakes to ensure the safety of transportation lines along the Lachin Pass.
Ensure the return of displaced persons and refugees to Karabakh and the surrounding areas, under the supervision of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
- To abolish the ban imposed on all economic and transport links in the region. Armenia has pledged to ensure transportation and communication between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, and this will be subject to the monitoring of the Russian border guards.
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Staff
Editors: Zuhair Hamdani, Abdul Rahman Ayyash, and Muhammad Al-Ali
Design by: Media Team
Photographers: Ali Mortada, Khalil Mabrouk, Abed Farhat