Will Joe Biden lead the United States be a game-changer in the Middle East?
In the region and especially for the Gulf countries, the electoral defeat of Donald Trump will mark the end of a thunderous policy, ultra-favorable to Saudi Arabia and Israel and vigorously hostile to Iran.
But that of Joe Biden should not however upset the major alliances.
Over the past four years, Donald Trump's United States has unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, assassinated the powerful Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, moved the US embassy to Israel to Jerusalem, and reduced its presence. military in the region.
Donald Trump's son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, responsible for working towards a regional peace process, has strengthened his friendly relations with the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and developed those with the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, not without controversies.
In a region as rich in oil as in political tensions, the Biden administration will have to refocus American policy and tackle respect for certain democratic "values", said the European Council for External Relations (ECFR) in a report.
Joe Biden has made it clear that he intends to re-enter the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Vienna Nuclear Deal concluded in 2015] if Iran complies fully "and to resume" diplomatic dialogue with Tehran on more issues. large ", he notes.
Riyadh's silence after Biden's victory
First observation: Arab leaders in the region rushed to congratulate Joe Biden after the announcement of his success on Saturday, with the exception of the Saudi heavyweight.
Riyadh is the most successful example of the warm ties forged by Donald Trump with the Gulf monarchies, in stark contrast to those of his predecessor Barack Obama and his vice-president, Joe Biden.
In 2017, Donald Trump booked his first foreign visit to the kingdom as head of state.
And there is no doubt that "Saudi officials were in favor of a second Trump presidency," observes Elham Fakhro, a Gulf researcher at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
"They consider Trump to have acted to protect their most important regional interests, by imposing maximum pressure on Iran and supporting the sale of arms to the kingdom," she said.
Under Donald Trump, the White House had rejected the anti-Saudi resolutions of the Democratic-majority Congress, in particular on the controversial war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has intervened militarily at the head of a coalition since 2015.
The Trump administration had also shown unwavering support when Riyadh faced the outcry over the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018.
A more measured relationship with Saudi Arabia
"In view of the erratic leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed ben Salman", "his alleged role" in the Khashoggi affair and the "disastrous war in Yemen", Joe Biden's United States "could now seek to weigh the pros and the cons "in their relationship with Riyadh, argues the think tank Soufan based in the United States.
Beyond Iran and the Gulf, Joe Biden will have to tackle several other regional issues, including Libya, the frenzied activism of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and of course the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Resumption of American aid to the Palestinians?
One of the first steps, analysts say, will be to re-establish contact, broken under Donald Trump, with the Palestinians.
On this issue too, "most European governments" will breathe "a deep sigh of relief," said the ECFR.
But if US pressure on Arab countries to normalize ties with Israel has heightened the ire of Palestinians, Joe Biden is unlikely to oppose ties forged between the Hebrew state on the one hand, the United Arab Emirates. , Bahrain and Sudan on the other.
The new president should "at least reduce the most negative consequences of the Trump era" by resuming US aid to the Palestinians, reopening the Palestinian mission in Washington and returning to the classic position of a two-state solution , summarizes the ECFR.
With AFP
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