The Arab World in the Post Corona Period… Where to?

It has been on the tongues of many people that the Corona pandemic will change the face of the world and turn it upside down; and that the world after this pandemic will not inevitably be as it was before before. The truth is that this statement is valid, but it is not without exaggeration at the same time.

Corona - like that of plagues, pandemics, and many natural disasters that struck humanity in ancient and modern times - will pass sooner or later, and the end or beginning of history will not be, but it will surely leave psychological scars and widespread political, economic and social effects within and between countries, and in the system of relations International.

Just as wars play a critical role in shaking the pace of inertia within societies and between nations, as they are an unconscious tool of history, in the words of Karl Marx, natural and biological disasters - of the plagues, epidemics, and pandemics, like economic, political and other crises - play an important role - and sometimes Crucial - to rock the deadlock and move balances within and between countries.

The truth is that the Corona pandemic is more like a war, from which victorious, stronger, and more powerful armies will emerge, defeated and thickened. The world of politics is not far from the world of wars and armies, knowing that this globalized epidemic is more like a hot and fierce war, but without visible armies or a clear-faced enemy and landmarks, and without light or heavy weapons.

What is certain is that the Arab world, wiped out by political and economic crises, will have a share of these expected changes worldwide, resulting from Corona.

The Arab and regional situation generally runs on moving sand, and it has not yet settled on a specific image or a known body. The wave of change that started in 2011 in the framework of what was known as the Arab Spring was broken by a mixture of intrigues, military coups and open civil wars from Egypt to Syria and from Yemen to Libya and Tunisia, but the situation that formed on its ruins also did not strengthen stability and resilience.

Perhaps the Syrian scene today gives us a revealing picture of the wider Arab situation. Neither has the opposition managed to displace Bashar al-Assad's regime, nor has he managed to end his opponents. The disruption of the path of change in the region has opened the way for a mixture of political and military conflicts, terrorism, chaos, and failed states.

This is if we exclude the Tunisian experience, which has recorded - until now - half success, and it is still resisting the bounce wave. That is, the causes of this state of ruin and chaos are not due to the Arab Spring as it promotes, but rather to trying to overthrow it and sabotage it with all the tricks and maneuvers.

It is clear that Corona will provoke the silent conflicts and move more than what exists from them, and this means that the countries of the region will suffer to varying degrees from the legacy of the Corona crisis; though some of them are exposed to risks and tremors more than others due to the weakness of resources and capabilities.

As for the heaviest countries in the region, they are not in the best case, given that most of them are exhausted by its internal conflicts and wars in the near and distant neighborhood. Saudi Arabia is mired in a war of attrition in Yemen that was unable to control its course, in addition to the conflicts of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman within the ruling family and with demands Fix. The drop in oil prices - after dumping the global market - will make its situation more fragile and vulnerable, and may expose it to a situation close to bankruptcy, with the consequent escalation of social demand in conjunction with the political crisis deepened by Mohammed bin Salman. 

Iran, in turn, is exhausted by a long-term economic blockade that US President Donald Trump has increased harshly for his cruelty, and she - besides - suffers from remnants involved in many areas of conflict, from Iraq to Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Afghanistan and others. After the assassination of Qasim Soleimani, her dispute with the Americans reached the brink of war.

Because the Americans and Iranians are playing the tug of war, each of them wants to use the Corona crisis in his favor and in his own way. Trump wants to tighten the embargo more, and perhaps take lightning military strikes, in light of Iran’s preoccupation in confronting the spread of the epidemic, but it wants to hurt the Americans more By pressing them through a proxy war led by Shiite groups in their backyard: Iraq.

Turkey, in turn, is depleted in more than one location and square. There is a war with Kurdish separatists in its southern borders, and another in Syria, east of the Euphrates, with Kurdish "Qasd" groups, and I will now add to it another battle in Libya, in addition to the economic difficulties it is already experiencing with the depreciation of the value of the lira. .

As for Sisi Egypt, it is mired in its internal crisis since the army turned against civilian rule, and bears the burdens of managing the economy and all the facilities of life, from bread and flour to gas bottles, and is almost absent from the Arab arena, if we exclude its hidden influence through the arm of the Arab League in Cairo, And her hidden support for Khalifa Haftar next to Libya.

What was called the axis of Arab moderation turned after the Arab Spring revolutions into an axis fiercely hostile to the Arab revolutions, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates before Egypt Sisi joined them. It is a axis governed by the instinct of life and death, and the pathological fear of the specter of democracy, even if that takes the title of resistance to the Muslim Brotherhood or the so-called political Islam.

It is no secret that this axis took advantage of the vacuum in the region and the rise of Trump to spread the policy of wars and chaos in Yemen, Libya, Syria and Somalia, and to confuse the situation in Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia and others. Perhaps the strength of this axis is that he possesses money, as well as that he moves on multiple lines and plays on many ropes, as he managed to forge an alliance of interests with the Israelis and Americans, and with the Russians and the Chinese, and even with Bashar al-Assad at times.

This was being done within a clear priority: stopping the wave of change in the region, and striking at the forces of political Islam at any cost, even if necessary to ally with Satan. This is the vision adopted by Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of the Emirates in particular, and behind him, Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

Despite the preponderance of the Saudi-Emirati-Egyptian axis in recent years, he still lost points in many locations in the region, and throughout the international arena. He was unable to resolve the battle in Libya after the equation turned against his ally, Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, and began rolling in the western region in favor of the legitimate government in Tripoli.

This axis also failed to resolve the battle in Yemen due to betting on the southern secession project and the emergence of the Saudi-Yemeni conflict. Rather, the Houthis were able to target Saudi cities and strike the sources of oil.

In addition to this, this axis failed to achieve its goals of the blockade of Qatar, after it succeeded in circumventing this policy and finding alternative options, as it was unable before that to topple Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey through a failed coup in the summer of 2016; this is in exchange for the relatively democratic development in Tunisia, Morocco, Malaysia and even Pakistan. All this prevented this axis from achieving its goal of returning the region to pre-2011, even if it succeeded in spreading chaos and curbing the wave of change in the region.

What is certain here is that the popular forces that rose in the context of the Arab Spring revolutions were unable to stabilize their feet, too, due to self-errors, then preponderant the forces of anti-change, except that the parties that came to their ruins did not settle the ground beneath their feet, too, and had it not been for Trump’s rise backed by forces The American Right would not have been able to advance in any conflict location.

The Corona crisis is likely to crumble this axis, which is already suffering from many problems, and its effect will increase further in the climate of economic and financial difficulties resulting from the sharp decline in fuel prices.

The best thing to say is that the region is a candidate for many variables, according to the following data:

- The Saudi and Egyptian role has declined in favor of the roles of regional states that are more immune and coherent, or at a minimum, less vulnerable: Iran and Turkey.

Turkey has a strong project and leadership, and its political system - whatever it was said - remains better and stronger than individual government systems - whether civil or military in nature - such as the Sisi, bin Zayed and Bin Salman regimes, in addition to this sensitive geographical location, and the military and industrial progress it has made In recent years, and therefore Turkey remains - in this respect - in a better position than its competitors, despite all its difficulties.

As for Iran, although it is burdened with the burden of a long siege and has been implicated in many hotbeds of conflict in the region, its ideological rigidity and strong association with Shiite groups, then its success in building self-armament capabilities, makes it at the minimum in a better position than the Arab axis countries.

The region is likely to deepen the vacuum more and more due to the retreat of the international forces controlling the situation. The Americans have loosened their grip, and the Russians and the Chinese have made tangible military and economic breakthroughs, but not to the extent that they can handle matters and impose a new order. This is because the old system that was formed in the region - since the withdrawal of the Ottoman Turks after the First World War - is in the process of disintegration and disintegration, but the new system has not been clearly defined or its features are clear, and this matter is only part of the wider international transition.

- The upcoming Arab situation will be one of the most important features of it, the decline of external influences due to the preoccupation of the West with its internal crises and the priority of the battle with China, all of which will give a greater impact to the local and regional factor, as it will give a wider opportunity to different parties and contradictory forces. The authoritarian states will try to strengthen their iron grip more because major powers are preoccupied with their internal situations, and then take advantage of the rise of the Sino-Russian control model.

As for the forces of change, they will have opportunities to advance further in the atmosphere of emptiness and chaos in the region, and because of the crowding of international and regional powers, which would nominate them to return to the atmosphere of the Arab Spring and beyond.

Islamic ideas and feelings will still be strongly present, but the old political carrier cannot advance the scene again without profound changes, or the birth of new powers from his womb. If it is recognized that the Arab authoritarian regime is exhausted and exhausted, despite its apparent power and might, the traditional Islamic forces cannot return in the old way, and without serious intellectual and political revisions that qualify them to reposition themselves in the scene again. With the knowledge here that everyone has learned and learned from his experience and mistakes, systems, peoples and political forces alike.

With all of the foregoing, it can be said that the Arab world, despite its apparent stalemate, is moving on hot ashes, and the wave of change is not ruled out again, and the path of resumption from the point where it was stopped by the coup against the Arab revolutions betrayed.