Where did the crowd increase? The "slackness" seen in the latest data is 20:24 on May 1st.
As we enter the period of large holidays, Twitter and other SNSs are filled with daily supermarkets and tourist attractions.
Perhaps the "looseness" of alertness to the infection, which was pointed out in late March, is occurring.
I analyzed big data and examined the number of people in each region in detail. (Keijiro Saito, Reporter for Social Affairs, Masato Morita, Motoki Tanaka, Director of Network Press)
* This article was written based on the information as of May 1, 2012.
Big data analysis I tried to find out where the number of people increased
Big data analysis of traffic and flow of people based on location information of mobile phones.
How has the number of people visiting the city center decreased after the first emergency declaration was announced on April 7?
An analysis was conducted based on the data of major communication companies, and now the website of the Cabinet Secretariat also publishes the data of major points every day. Perhaps some people have seen numbers such as “●● around station ○% decrease”.
Estimated crowding by this big data analysis.
NHK also does its own without identifying personal information based on location data collected by IT group companies Agoop with the permission of mobile users.
A big feature is that not only the main points but also the places of interest can be analyzed in detail. This time, before the 5 consecutive holidays, I thoroughly investigated where the number of people is increasing in the metropolitan area.
In the city center, the number of people going out due to self-restraint continues
This figure is a map that visualizes the analysis of the number of people on the weekend around central Tokyo.
We compare the average of April 4, 5 before the announcement of the emergency situation and April 25, 26. Orange increased. Blue decreases. The uncolored areas are places where there are few people and the number of people cannot increase or decrease.
You can see that the number of people is decreasing mainly at terminal stations such as Tokyo, Shibuya, Shinjuku.
Of these, I will look at the crowds near the scramble intersection in Shibuya from mid-February to April 29, where sparse people are introduced every day.
Saturdays and Sundays from April 25 were down 83% compared to the most common Saturdays and Sundays. It can be said that the tendency of self-restraint is continuing in the downtown area.
What is the effect of Sugamo "Stay Home Week" to increase the number of people?
When we analyzed many places, we could also see the characteristics of places where the number of people is not decreasing or is increasing.
This is the place to go for "shopping".
One of them is a shopping street used for everyday shopping. The number of people in many shopping districts in Tokyo was not so low.
Among these, the number of people increasing was Sugamo in Toshima-ku, Tokyo. It is a shopping district that is famous for the elderly.
The number of people is increasing on both weekdays and holidays. Especially, April 25th and 26th were the most crowded weekends in the past two and a half months.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government calls for staying weekly from 25th to refrain from shopping once every 3 days. However, from the data, it seems that the call is not so effective.
Increasing the number of people Even in large malls in the suburbs
Shopping malls are not the only people visiting for shopping purposes.
Even in the large suburban stores that continue to operate, I found that there are places where the number of people has not decreased so much.
A large supermarket in Chiba city and a shopping mall in Yamanashi prefecture.
Large-scale supermarkets in Chiba City tend to decrease on holidays, but generally increase on weekdays, and April 28 was the most weekday during the past month and a half.
A feature of Yamanashi shopping malls is that even people visiting from afar, such as the outdoors, can drop by to shop. On April 25th, it was the second most crowded in the past two and a half months.
The bustle of the park continues
In addition, there are some places in the park where the number of people has not decreased.
Kinuta Park in Setagaya Ward in a residential area.
Since February, it has been almost flat.
The current situation is that the number of people in the place where “going out is not stopped” has not decreased significantly.
On SNS such as Twitter, many people are gathering at shopping malls, shopping malls, and parks, and they are posted one after another. The data can be said to support that trend.
Where is the number of people increasing rapidly? Thorough data analysis
Furthermore, in this big data analysis, we made a new attempt.
In the Tokyo metropolitan area, I tried to use data to show places where the increase in the number of people was particularly high. We analyze the number of people on holidays in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama prefectures on four days with 500-meter square data.
In red, there were 67 places, where the number of people increased more than three times.
What kind of tendency do you have when examining each of them? I checked one place and one place against the map.
The following is the result.
Especially noticeable were the parks and plazas that I saw earlier.
There were also beaches, harbors, golf courses, tourist spots, and pachinko parlors.
More golf courses "Move across prefectures ..."
The golf course has seen an increasing trend as a facility that moves the body like a park.
Among them, I spoke to a golf course in Chiba prefecture.
Even after the declaration of an emergency, the number of people increased significantly on some days. Sunday, April 26th, was the most frequent holiday in the last two and a half months.
According to the company that runs it, it seems that the weekends are often sunny and the number of people actually tends to increase.
Although he is strengthening infection control measures such as closing restaurants and bathing facilities, he says he is worried.
Person in charge of the golf course
"Golf increases in season when the weather is good. There will be many users. We will take thorough measures such as blocking places that may be" dense "in the facility. However, I am worried that the large holidays may increase the number of trips, especially across prefectures. "
Expert's point of view "There is a risk even with one secret"
How do experts look at the results of this data analysis? I asked Yasutaka Mizuno, who is familiar with infectious diseases.
Mr. Mizuno points out that many people seem to be careful when going out.
Dr. Yasutaka Mizuno
“The place where the number of people is increasing is often outdoors such as parks, because many people are careful to avoid the dense, closed, close“ 3 dense ”that occurs indoors. it might be"
So what should I pay attention to?
Mr. Mizuno is worried about the belief that it is okay if it is not "3 dense".
Dr. Mizuno
: It is conceivable that the initial word "avoid 3 denseness" has changed to "loose recognition" that "if there is no denseness, there is no risk" as the self-restraint is prolonged. Please recognize that "3 denseness is high risk", "2 denseness is medium risk", and "1 denseness is also risky". It is "dense and medium risk". It is necessary to change the behavior to reduce even one risk. "
"Be careful because it is a large holiday"
In addition, Mr. Mizuno said that he should avoid "actions that overdo a little because of the long holidays."
Dr. Yasutaka Mizuno
“For example, in a park where you have stretched your legs a little, it's easy to think that'playground equipment is crowded, but I'm here, so let's play back. ' Before I leave home, I think it will be easier to change my behavior by making sure that my family promises to reduce the "close risk" by saying "Keep away from crowded places."
Keijiro Saito, Reporter, Social Affairs Department
Masato Morita, Director, Network News Department
Motoki Tanaka, Director, Network News Department