Is the Horn of Africa the new arena of conflict in the world?

An image of a map that includes the countries of the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia...).

(Al Jazeera)

A security official in Ankara said - while explaining the justifications for the defense agreement between Turkey and Somalia -: “Developments in the Horn of Africa are not limited to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement only. There are serious developments that I cannot reveal now.”

His voice was a little worried.

For his part, Professor Ahmed Kavas, who served as Turkey's ambassador to Chad and Senegal and is considered one of the most prominent experts on African affairs, said upon hearing of the agreement: “This quick agreement is not normal. There are major developments taking place.”

Then the news came one after another.

Finally, when China decided to send warships to the Red Sea, the seriousness of the situation became clearer.

The Gaza war spread to the region

The main problem behind all the crises in the Middle East is Israel;

We have seen the first effect is the transformation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into a hot conflict in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Now there is a risk of hot conflict in the Horn of Africa.

This is something that should scare everyone;

Because it is a new arena of conflict in the world, and any blockage in this region - which is the most strategic region in global maritime trade - will affect the whole world, from England to China.

In addition, 12 percent of the world's maritime trade takes place through this region.

Last year;

23,000 ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and used the Suez Canal, and in return, Egypt earned $8 billion from these ships last year.

But the economic size of 23,000 ships is enormous.

Recall that in 2021, the Ever Given ran aground while entering the canal due to winds, closing traffic to ships;

Within 15 days, oil prices rose, and maritime trade prices rose by 30 percent.

Now there is a thought about how conflict in this region will affect global trade.

The Chinese must have thought of this, as they decided to send three warships to the region.

The chaotic environment in the Horn of Africa

Wherever there is instability;

Know that there are foreign countries present.

Wherever there is global terrorism;

Know that there is an intelligence organization behind it.

Wherever there is a chaotic environment;

Know that arms dealers, warlords, and drug dealers have appeared.

Therefore, if the crisis, chaos, and unrest do not end somewhere, know that there is a conflict of interests between major countries, and the main reason for the existence of this chaos in all these lands is underground and superficial wealth, commercial gains, and geopolitical dominance.

All the reasons mentioned such as human rights, anti-terrorism and democracy are completely false. The Horn of Africa is a region that includes everything I talked about, which is very important geopolitically, and rich underground and superficial wealth.

Even the struggle of Japanese and Chinese sailors to obtain exquisite marine products off the coast of Somalia is enough to explain this situation.

Proxy wars and the threat of occupation

I recently fell into my hands with a map showing only ethnic groups, organizations, tribes and armed militias in Somalia;

Al-Shabaab, ISIS, and Al-Qaeda took control of specific areas in the country.

That alone scared me.

If we zoom in on this map, it will include Kenya, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Sudan, and this is exactly the scene that foreign countries with eyes in the region want;

The map shows the presence of many terrorist organizations that can be used, tribes that can be purchased, conflicts that can be fueled, blurred borders, ignorance, poverty, and instability.

Now, Israel, America, England, France, Russia, China, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey are the parties to the power struggle in the Horn of Africa.

There is little that poor and unstable countries can do in the presence of large, powerful countries.

However, most of the countries and people affected by the crisis in the region are Muslims.

Now we can ask another question to which we can never find an answer: Why do Islamic countries not unite to solve this problem?

External pressure for the Israeli-Palestinian war tends to spread from the Middle East to the Horn of Africa now, and this heated conflict will lead to new occupations, migrations and economic crises.

Now we will see how World War III will go.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.