US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken participates in a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference (Reuters)

The American administration’s talk about establishing a Palestinian state was renewed in various forms, as it described it, but what were the political circumstances that prompted it to revive such a proposal at a time like this?

A proposal that accompanies the extreme right-wing Israeli government’s unlimited military and political support in its devastating war on Gaza. In what political context does this American call come?

Why is the American call for a two-state solution now?

With the apparent disagreement existing between the current American administration and Netanyahu, the head of the right-wing Israeli government, regarding what is known as the day after the war on Gaza, the relationship between the two parties was not affected regarding political and military support in the war on Gaza, and the two parties agreed on the necessity of ending Hamas’ rule and ending Palestinian resistance in Gaza, and agreeing not to expand the framework of the war outside Palestine, and to maintain the stability of the situation in the West Bank and the region.

The American call to establish a Palestinian state comes as a means of putting pressure on the right-wing Israeli government after the American efforts to replace that government through the Knesset failed, and the cohesion of the Netanyahu government coalition

The American call for the establishment of a Palestinian state came as a temporary political tactic, not as a strategic plan. This call was governed by several internal and external American political circumstances, the most important of which are:

Fear of a snowball rolling in the political costs that the Democratic Party could pay as a result of its support for the war on Gaza. This support may be one of the influential reasons that could expel the Democratic Party from the White House. The call came in the context of an attempt by the American administration and the Democratic Party to round sharp political corners; To stop divisions within the Democratic Party between older members who support Israel and younger members sympathetic to the Palestinians, to vent political discontent on the American left, and to secure the votes of Arab voters that could greatly influence the upcoming American elections.

An opinion poll indicated that 56% of the American people oppose Biden’s policy in the war on Gaza, and that 66% of Arab-American voters hold a negative theory towards Biden’s re-election, and they were the most biased towards Biden in the past elections.

The US administration’s call for the establishment of a Palestinian state is read in the context of an attempt to re-advance the wheel of Arab-Israeli normalization. To arrange the cards in the region by establishing an Arab-Israeli alliance to confront the Iranian project, or even the Turkish project, in light of the American planning to reduce their presence in the region, and devote themselves to confronting the Chinese project in a way that ensures the continued state of America’s superiority and its position on the throne of global leadership.

The American desire to restore the region’s arrangements to the state they were in before October 7 made it keen to prevent the expansion of the war beyond the borders of Gaza. For fear of the outbreak of a comprehensive war in the region that could affect the American project in engineering the region, in a way that achieves America’s interests and achieves its quiet devotion to the major powers. That is, China and Russia.

The American call for the establishment of a Palestinian state comes out of pressure on the right-wing Israeli government after the failure of American efforts to replace that government through the Knesset, and the cohesion of the Netanyahu government alliance, as the American administration seeks to get rid of the current Israeli government that rejects its plan to hand over Gaza to the authority after the end of the war. Palestinian Authority, and restore the situation in Gaza to before 2007, before Hamas took control of it; The Israeli government wants to take military control of Gaza, restore the situation to what was before 2005, and impose what is known as the “new authority” to govern Gaza away from the Palestinian Authority present in the West Bank. To perpetuate the state of Palestinian division, and not to allow Gaza and the West Bank to be subject to a single Palestinian authority.

Israeli rejection

The Israeli rejection of the establishment of a Palestinian state came quickly on the lips of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who announced that he had informed the American administration of his opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state after the end of the war on Gaza, and he pledged in his press conference to continue the attack on Gaza until he achieves complete victory, as he described it, and this may take additional months. . The Israeli refusal to establish a Palestinian state in accordance with the American call was the result of several reasons:

Opinion polls conducted from 2017 until November of last year showed that those among the Israeli people who opposed the two-state solution constituted 48%, and that those who approved of the two-state solution option constituted 52% of the Israeli people.

The Israeli government realizes that agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state means dismantling the settlements that devour 43% of the West Bank lands that are supposed to be part of the promised State of Palestine, and the deportation of 750,000 settlers from the illegal settlements in the West Bank and the Jordanian Valley, which may lead to an explosion. Internal Israeli conflict leads to civil war.

The current Israeli government consists of a coalition of Israeli right-wing parties that do not believe in the establishment of a Palestinian state, and believe that the ideal solution to the Palestinian issue is for Israel to swallow up the entire geography of the West Bank and the Jordanian Valley and displace their residents, while accepting the proposal of a two-state solution means giving up geographical expansion, and this is what Netanyahu announced his rejection of. Frankly; He believes that Israel must maintain security control over all lands west of the Jordan River, meaning the Jordan Valley and the West Bank.

Netanyahu's alliance with the extreme Israeli right prevents Netanyahu from identifying with what the United States wants, even if it is as a temporary or media tactic. Because that means the collapse of the Israeli government, which means for Netanyahu that he will not return to power according to opinion polls, that his judicial immunity will be lifted, and that he will be tried on corruption charges that could expose him to imprisonment and end his political career forever.

Netanyahu believes that his victory in Gaza - and ending Hamas’ rule and continuing in power - will help him get rid of the idea of ​​a two-state solution, and will lead him to relieve his political embarrassment in contravening the US administration until the results of the upcoming US presidential elections are revealed and what they will result in.

The Israeli government is awaiting the results of the American elections. If they bring former President Donald Trump to the White House, Israel will receive unlimited support in tightening its control over the Palestinian territories, swallowing up the West Bank lands through settlements, and annexing them to the State of Israel according to what was known as the deal of the century.

Netanyahu sees this rejection of the Palestinian state, the continuation of the war on Gaza, achieving victory over Hamas, waiting for the results of the American elections, and imposing the deal of the century with the arrival of Trump, as the thing that will ensure the continuation of his political life, and the guarantee that will give him the opportunity to return to power, even if it is a discreet model for predicting the results of the presidential elections. It gave Joe Biden victory, and the results of studying this model have been achieved 11 previous times in a row, as Dr. Walid Abdel-Hay, a Jordanian professor of political science, points out.

When will the American move be a serious step?

Since Oslo, all the steps and American care that were taken to conclude a comprehensive and lasting peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis and end the crisis of the Palestinian issue have failed, and the result was a state of political nothingness as a result of the Israeli side’s lack of seriousness and its taking of the peace process as a delaying tactic in order to complete the tightening of control over everything. The Palestinian geography was chewed up and swallowed, and the chance for any real and serious peace vanished with the rise of the Israeli extreme right to power after the decline of the more politically pragmatic Israeli left, which was proposing the idea of ​​a two-state solution.

The American administration realizes that both the Israeli Prime Minister and the Israeli government are immersed in extremist right-wing perceptions, and that these governments cannot conclude any peace agreement for reasons stemming from their ideological and intellectual convictions, and that betting on them to conclude a peace agreement is a losing bet, and thus the American call for the establishment of a Palestinian state is Through a peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians, it is a kind of buying time, and an attempt to turn the sharp political angles that it faces at the American internal level in light of the election season, and to spread ashes in the eyes of the Arab side to drag it towards further normalization of relations with Israel with promises.

If the American administration is actually serious and acts from a real political conviction to solve the Palestinian issue and end the conflict in the region, and in light of the composition of the current Israeli government, and in light of the sinking of Israeli society and its shift towards the right-wing Israeli narrative, then there is nothing left for the American administration but unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state, followed by That is the European Union and major countries, and this step is consistent with what was stated by the British Foreign Secretary.

If the unilateral American recognition of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital is achieved, Palestine will then be recognized as a full member of the United Nations, and the Palestinian territories will be considered occupied territories whose occupation must be ended by resolutions issued by the Security Council. The settlements will be considered illegal gatherings, and it will be called upon to dismantle them and remove the settlers from them.

Such a step alone could change the entire Palestinian political scene, be the real beginning of resolving the Palestinian issue, and make the call for the establishment of a Palestinian state realistically easier and more serious.

We are fully aware that the Joe Biden administration will not take such a step, especially during the election season. Because it means provoking the Zionist lobby in America, whose position will have a major impact on the results of the American elections.

In light of these facts, and the circumstances of the current American administration, the American call to establish a Palestinian state is nothing more than a showy jump in the air to pass the election season and return it to the rule of the White House, and then return to the previous American policy of managing the conflict, not resolving it, and benefiting from it to achieve some interests. America in the region whenever necessary.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.