About 7% of respondents said they had never heard of it, and information on countermeasures against a huge earthquake did not progress on December 12 at 21:16

"The victims of a massive earthquake that is said to have killed 20,8 people can be reduced by 2022% by preparing in advance and quickly evacuating," the

"Hokkaido and Sanriku Offshore Late Earthquake Warning Information" began operation in December 12.

One year has passed since then, and I have come to realize that there is a difference between the ideal and the reality. When NHK conducted a survey of 1,1000 people living in the target area, nearly 7% of them answered that they had never heard of it, and the dissemination and understanding of the information was not progressing sufficiently. In addition, it became clear that there are challenges in preparing for cold regions.

Preparing for a Massive Earthquake "Late Earthquake Warning Information"

A huge hole about 2 meters deep dug in the vast ground of Hokkaido.

Among them, researchers are eagerly looking for traces of past giant tsunamis.

A research group led by Associate Professor Yuichi Nishimura of Hokkaido University and Associate Professor Yasuhiro Takashimizu of Niigata University is conducting this survey about 600 meters inland from the coast of Atsuma Town.

So far, sand that is believed to have been carried by the tsunami caused by an earthquake that occurred in the first half of the 17th century has been found deposited with a thickness of several centimeters to 20 centimeters.

It has been pointed out that the large tsunami that swept into the inland plains in the past may hit northern Japan again. It is a huge earthquake along the "Kuril Trench" and "Japan Trench".

It is known that along these trenches off the coast from Hokkaido to Iwate Prefecture, large earthquakes occur repeatedly every 300~400 years. It has already been about 400 years since the last major earthquake, so it is not surprising that the next major earthquake will occur at any time.

The country's assumptions are that in the worst-case scenario, the death toll will be between 10,20 and close to <>,<>. In order to protect as many lives as possible from this enormous damage, the "Hokkaido and Sanriku Earthquake Warning Information" was introduced.

In the event of a magnitude 7-class earthquake in or around the expected epicenter area, the government will warn that "the occurrence of subsequent large earthquakes is higher than usual."

In the massive earthquake of 2011 that caused the Great East Japan Earthquake, a magnitude 2.7 earthquake occurred two days earlier, and the operation began in December 3 based on these past cases.

The target is 2022 municipalities in Hokkaido, Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki, and Chiba prefectures.

List of 182 municipalities (Cabinet Office Disaster Prevention Homepage)

*You will leave the NHK website.

About 7% "I've never heard of it"

How much information is permeated? In November, NHK conducted an online survey of 11,1000 people living in the target area.

As a result, 69% of respondents answered that they had never heard of the name of the "Hokkaido Sanriku Earthquake Warning Information."

Local governments on the ground are also scratching their heads as they are trying to make the information known to as many people as possible.

Kushiro Town, Hokkaido is expected to experience a tsunami of up to 26.5 meters. This month, during an evacuation drill in a town that simulated a large tsunami, we distributed leaflets about the "Hokkaido and Sanriku Earthquake Warning Information" and conducted awareness-raising activities.

However, from the residents who participated in the training ...

Residents who participated in the drill:
"I didn't know much about it," "
I've heard about the earthquake in the Kuril Trench in newspapers, but I'm not familiar with it."

There is a risk that it will not lead to correct disaster prevention actions

While the town is working to disseminate the information, it is worried about whether the residents will understand the information correctly and act on it.

In the Late Earthquake Warning Information, the government has indicated that it will not call on residents to evacuate in advance. This is because the probability of a major earthquake occurring after this information is released is about 1 in 100, and an earthquake does not always occur. Residents are asked to maintain their daily lives for about one week and be prepared to evacuate immediately.

In response to this policy, the town will not open an evacuation center in advance. However, if there are people who voluntarily evacuate, we will accept them at the municipal office.

In the town hall, we have set up an evacuation space that has been renovated from a rest room for staff. Movable tatami mats can be used as beds in the event of a disaster, and stoves and other equipment are stockpiled in preparation for winter evacuation.

However, the number of people that can be accommodated is currently limited to about 100, and if there is a flood of evacuees, the town hall may not be able to respond.

Masaki Fujii, chief of the
Kushiro Town Disaster Prevention and Safety Division, said, "There is a lack of awareness among us, but I think it is still difficult for residents to understand. We have no choice but to carefully explain the meaning of the information."

The results of the questionnaire tell us a real picture of the concerns of local governments.

When the 1000,43 respondents to the questionnaire were asked what actions they would take if a late earthquake warning was issued, 15% of the respondents chose "evacuation to a designated evacuation center in advance," which was not required by the information. In addition, <>% of respondents said they would not do anything.

Due to a lack of understanding of information, there is a risk that this situation will not lead to correct disaster prevention actions.

How does the top management of the Japan Meteorological Agency react to this situation?

Masanori Obayashi, Director-General of the Japan Meteorological Agency,
said, "Over the past year, we have been working with related organizations to raise awareness through various media. We take seriously the results of this survey, which show that information has not penetrated, and we are keenly aware of the difficulty of disseminating and raising awareness. Late earthquake warning information is extremely uncertain, and disaster prevention measures do not mean that you will run away immediately, so it cannot be said that there is a sense of urgency, and it may be difficult to accept it as your own. In the second year of operation, we would like to strengthen awareness and awareness among local residents who are expected to be affected."

"Socio-economic activities will continue" Measures for companies

Even if a late earthquake warning is issued, socioeconomic activities will continue. For this reason, businesses in tsunami inundation zones need to take measures to keep their employees safe from major earthquakes and tsunamis.

Tomakomai City, Hokkaido is expected to experience a tsunami of nearly 10 meters. Around 100 companies are located in the flooded area around the port.

One of them, an automobile-related plant with about 3400,7 employees, installed seven evacuation stairs in preparation for a tsunami after the Great East Japan Earthquake, and stockpiled food and other supplies for three days of employees on the roof.

In addition, in response to the start of operation of the Late Earthquake Warning Information, when the information is announced, we will check the assumption of flooding on the premises and commuting routes on the hazard map, and we will make an announcement from the guard office twice a day to inform people that the information is being issued and call on them to be thoroughly prepared. This is an initiative to ensure the continuation of business while protecting the safety of employees.

Takashi Otomo, Head
of Facilities & Disaster Prevention Management Group, Toyota Motor Hokkaido: "Even if the information is announced, the production system will not change, but we are worried about whether it will be possible to follow the simulation.

Risks unique to northern Japan

In northern Japan, where severe damage is expected among the areas covered by the Late Earthquake Warning Advisory, it is necessary to prepare for risks unique to this region. It is a "countermeasure against the cold in winter".

This is not only because of direct effects such as hypothermia, but also because of snow accumulation and icy road surfaces, which can lead to longer evacuation times than usual.

How do snowy roads affect evacuation? Sho Hayase, a reporter at NHK Aomori Broadcasting Station, actually walked around and checked it out.

Departing from NHK in Aomori City, I stopped at my home in the city on the way, and then took my 2-year-old son on foot to the evacuation site "Aomori Central Park". It is a little more than 1 km in a straight line.

As a result of walking and comparing the same route on the 40nd of this month, when about 2 cm of snow accumulated in the city, and on the 9th when there was no snow, it took 51 minutes with snow, more than twice as long as 22 minutes without snow.

In the snowy conditions, the snow on the sidewalk was trampled and slippery, and it took more time than I had imagined, making it difficult to walk fast even if I tried to hurry.

In addition, it took time to prepare to leave the house, such as wearing warm clothes and shoes when evacuating with children, and there were situations where it was necessary to move while carrying children, which made a difference in physical exhaustion.

In Aomori City, it is expected that the first wave of a tsunami exceeding 90 meters will arrive in about 5 minutes due to a massive earthquake.

This time, we were able to move out of the flooded area within 1 minutes even on a snowy road, but it may take longer for people with deep snow and the elderly.

These disaster prevention issues unique to cold regions were also glimpsed in the questionnaire.

Of those who answered that they live in an area inundated by the tsunami, nearly half said that they may not be able to evacuate to an evacuation site from the tsunami if an earthquake occurs in winter.

In addition, more than 8% of people answered that they did not have enough reserves to survive the cold on their own, and it became clear that the preparations unique to cold regions are not sufficient.

Expert: "Inform residents of the action to be taken"

Various issues have been clarified in the "Hokkaido and Sanriku Offshore Earthquake Warning Information".

Shosuke Sato, an associate professor at Tohoku University who specializes in disaster information, who supervised the survey, said that while the information on earthquake warnings can be expected to have a significant effect if they are disseminated, he warns that if this situation continues, panic may occur and affect various areas.

Associate Professor
Shosuke Sato, Tohoku University: "One year has passed since the start of the operation, but I have the impression that fewer people know the information than I expected. We need to promote penetration."

On top of that, he said that it is important for people living in tsunami-inundated areas to prepare multiple evacuation sites in preparation for winter evacuation and to conduct evacuation drills assuming various situations such as snow accumulation.

"Training doesn't necessarily have to be done by the entire community, but it is important for each household or individual to try it once.

Utilizing Information for Disaster Prevention Response

To what extent is the "Hokkaido and Sanriku Earthquake Warning Information" recognized? I asked the country a question, but I didn't get a clear answer. That's why we conducted our own survey this time.

The results were serious, as many people did not know about them and were not well understood.

On the other hand, there was hope. More than half of the respondents responded that they would "use" or "rather use" information for disaster prevention response. The question is how the communicator responds to this thought.

In order to protect their own lives and loved ones, those who receive information are also strongly required to raise awareness and prepare for the imminent occurrence of a major earthquake.

(Broadcast on "News 12" on December 16) (Interview team: Shunsuke Shimanaka, reporter of Kushiro Broadcasting Station, Ryo Usuki, reporter of Muroran Broadcasting Station, Sho Hayase, reporter of Aomori Broadcasting Station, Junichi Tokuda, Midori Oikawa, Goichi Miyahara)