Humanitarian truces are warriors' rest or a prelude to a ceasefire?

Al-Qassam Brigades handing over the fourth batch of Israeli prisoners in Gaza (Al-Jazeera)

Israel resumed its attacks on the Gaza Strip in the north and south, after seven days of humanitarian truces, in which it exchanged with the Palestinian resistance a number of women and minors in a ratio of three to one.

However, the occupation reiterated that it is ready for an additional truce, which it set at one day, while the resistance is still showing its readiness to resume it, which means that these truces may be repeated.

The mediators – Qatar and Egypt – are still working in coordination with the United States to reach new truces agreements between the two sides, after Hamas confirmed its readiness to include a new truces and rejected an Israeli offer to release female soldiers in the occupation army.

What are the implications of this truce, and has it made a breakthrough in the logic and method of war in the occupation? Is this truces an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement in the coming days or weeks?

Implications of truces

Perhaps the most important implication of this mechanism is that the occupation cannot continue indefinitely in its war on Gaza, and that international restrictions on excessive force will continue to operate regardless of the progress or development of the war, as well as the entitlements of the failure of the Israeli military force to achieve achievements or restore the dignity of the entity that was allowed in the attacks of October 7.

The occupation considered that it was fighting a new war of independence - like the one fought by the gangs founding it in 1948 - and harnessed all its available conventional military power, while one of its government ministers threatened to use nuclear weapons against Gaza!

Despite all the mobilization carried out by the occupation in Gaza, and the implementation of many heinous massacres against civilians - which led to the martyrdom of more than 15,<> Palestinians, thousands of injuries, the displacement and displacement of hundreds of thousands, the destruction of a large part of the Gaza Strip, and its leveling to the ground - this has not achieved what he wanted so far.

At the same time, the occupying forces have suffered significant loss of life and equipment, although they have not yet entered high-density cities and areas in northern and southern Gaza.

The occupation only admitted that about 80 of its soldiers had fallen, but Haaretz newspaper revealed, quoting a military spokesman, that 1000,202 were wounded, including <> in serious condition.

As for the resistance, it documented in video the destruction of a large number of vehicles, including armored vehicles and personnel carriers, and the killing and wounding of those in them, which makes it likely that the occupation will resort to hiding its losses.

The displacement of settlers in the Gaza envelope, estimated at thousands, has also continued, increasing the size of the costs borne by the occupation in this war, in addition to the continued feeling of its citizens in settlements and in major cities under the threat of resistance rockets.

It is noteworthy that Hamas offered - before the start of the ground war at the end of last October / October - to release civilians in its possession free of charge, but the occupation insisted on continuing its ground campaign, and procrastinated in responding to the American demand for humanitarian truces in order to win a victory image to show in front of its people before going to such stands.

The occupation has failed to achieve any achievement on the ground, such as arresting or liquidating the leaders of the resistance, seizing its tunnels scattered in length and breadth in the Gaza Strip, or paralyzing the ability of the resistance to target its vehicles, tanks and soldiers.

Despite its unlimited support for Israel, the United States has failed to achieve its stated goals: to defeat and eliminate Hamas and to free prisoners held by the Palestinian resistance.

However, with the continued horrific images of attacks on civilians, and the thinness and falsehood of the occupation's narratives in justifying the targeting of hospitals and schools, the image of the entity - along with the US administration - began to shake, while the Western alliance began to stagnate in front of public opinion, which turned against the entity, and resulted in million-strong demonstrations in Britain, and America, the main supporters of the entity.

Therefore, the US administration benefited from Qatar's diplomatic efforts and mediation between Hamas and the Zionist entity to achieve the humanitarian truces agreement, and took advantage of the pressure of the street and the families of detainees on the Netanyahu government, to demand that it deal with this demand, especially after Hamas announced more than once that the Israeli bombardment of Gaza caused the death of detainees in its custody.

Because Hamas realized that the Netanyahu government had agreed to the humanitarian truces under the pressure of reality, it switched its plan to release its captors for free, demanding the release of 3 women and children from Israeli prisons, in exchange for every woman or minor it released, and succeeded in convincing other factions such as Islamic Jihad to participate in the deal, which was done.

There is no doubt that Hamas, as the leader of the resistance, was very interested in human truces, as it is not in the capacity of its options. Although the resistance has not been significantly affected by the occupation strikes, these detainees have been a burden on it, and the human losses and images of destruction and devastation caused by the Israeli bombardment are detrimental to its popular incubator and rallying around the resistance.

Therefore, it is obligated to seek to relieve the Palestinians by using the cards of power it possesses, to push the Zionist entity to allow the entry of more humanitarian aid and fuel to the besieged Strip, which was included in the humanitarian truces agreement, but nevertheless remained less than required!

The newspaper "Politico" quoted US officials, that President Joe Biden will not soon impose any restrictions on US military aid to Israel, in response to a request by a number of US lawmakers from the White House to link the flow of military aid to Israel to its commitment to international law

During the exchanges, the resistance presented a humane image in dealing with the prisoners, and videos of their handing over to the Red Cross showed images of the high-end treatment.

They came out with positive accounts of good treatment during captivity, erasing the false image that the occupation media has been spreading since October 7, by showing resistance fighters that they kill children, behead them and rape women.

After the emergence of more than one account of the prisoners in this regard, the occupation deliberately prevented any released detainee from speaking directly in the media.

In addition to 97 Israeli detainees, the resistance released a number of Russian Israelis to reward Russia for its advanced position, including preventing Hamas from being condemned at the UN Security Council.

A number of Thai workers, deemed not involved in the conflict, were released and came to the entity to work. On the other hand, three times as many Israelis were released from Israeli prisons in the category of women and minors, including some of the 48 Palestinian prisoners.

War or ceasefire?

Despite the occupation's desire to achieve an image of victory in Gaza, and its enjoyment of the support of the street hungry for revenge, there are still opportunities to extend the humanitarian truces that both sides need, but the most important thing is the extent to which this truces can develop into a comprehensive ceasefire. And how to get to it?

It should be noted that the atmosphere imposed by the humanitarian truces will create the atmosphere for pressure towards a permanent ceasefire. For the Israelis who support their government in its war on Gaza, they saw that part of their prisoners returned under a truce, and that continuing to do so until a ceasefire would return more prisoners than the war would.

The U.S. government has become more understanding of the importance of the humanitarian truces, sending its CIA chief to Doha to negotiate with the Mossad and Egyptian intelligence in the presence of the Qatari government on a possible ceasefire deal.

It also sent direct messages in the media to the Netanyahu government that it expects a less intense war in targeting civilians, which indicates its weariness with the behavior of the extremist government, bearing in mind the growing global reactions against war, and its negative effects on the volume of support for US President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party.

The newspaper "Politico" quoted US officials that President Joe Biden will not soon impose any restrictions on US military aid to Israel, in response to a number of US lawmakers asking the White House to link the flow of military aid to Israel to its commitment to international law.

However, it is noted that the US position - unreservedly supportive of Israel - is linked to a short period of time, as the timer will begin to run out as the US election campaign approaches, which the Biden administration wants to enter after achieving success in achieving calm in the region.

The Biden administration also fears the outbreak of a regional war if the Israeli aggression on Gaza continues, involving the United States.

National security officials fear that a miscalculation between Washington and Tehran could lead to a regional conflict that Washington does not want because it will distract it from its focus on China and Russia.

The intricacies of the exchange deal

As long as a ceasefire requires the consent of both sides in the conflict, it is good to recall that Netanyahu's government has become more convinced that it will not be able to end Hamas, as it has promised. This is evidenced by a number of statements by Israeli officials indicating a retreat from adhering to the goal of ending Hamas, in favor of weakening its political and military capabilities, leading to indirect negotiations with it on humanitarian truces!

At a Security Council meeting in November 2023, the Israeli representative confirmed this regression, saying: "This war could end tomorrow, or even today, if Hamas returns all the hostages and hands over all the terrorists who participated in the massacre of October 7. A real truce can be reached that will last for decades. I ask Hamas for that, this is the solution."

However, the occupation forces are now seeking to achieve any achievement that brings them down from the tree, such as the assassination of symbols in the resistance, led by the head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, as focusing on him - in the statements of Netanyahu and his defense minister - is an attempt to show that being able to kill him will constitute a great victory for Israel and achieve its goals.

Despite all its previous experiences, it has not been able to achieve its goals by assassinating a symbol of the resistance or even assassinating all its leaders, because Hamas is a movement, ideology and broad current rooted in the land, and has followers and supporters all over the world, and that there are generations of leaders who will undoubtedly replace those who are assassinated.

On the other hand, Hamas' goal of whitewashing the occupation prisons by exchanging the occupation prisoners with them will only be achieved through a ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation forces and the lifting of the siege imposed on them. Although Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, indicated that the prisoners could be released all at once or in batches, Hamas is not expected to be satisfied with the swap deal and accept the continuation of the occupation and siege, as this contradicts its view of the gains achieved by the October 7 attacks.

Therefore, the comprehensive exchange story involves many complications, and it is difficult to predict the formula and conditions that will end up with it, although the indicators indicate the failure of the Zionist aggression to achieve its goals after nearly two months of its aggression on Gaza, which makes it vulnerable to retreat, concession and acceptance of the conditions of resistance, especially with the continued steadfastness of the resistance, and the decline in the momentum of American and European support for the aggression.

The question remains about the conditions that the ceasefire will include, whether or not this will mark the end of the Israeli occupation of Gaza, the consequent form of governance in Gaza, and the role of the Palestinian, and possibly non-Palestinian parties in it.