Has Israel's dream of its ally winning the presidency of Argentina evaporated?

When far-right candidate Javier Milai won first place in Argentina's presidential primary two months ago, the chances of the likes of Trump and Bolsonaro doubled for reasons related to his ultra-populist style, at a time when public anger at the current government and its predecessor was at its highest. But the results of the first round last Sunday represented a stronger surprise than the surprise of the primaries, and largely confirmed the return of rationality to voters, who retreated from supporting the candidate who boasts of being fully aligned with Israeli and American policies, especially after the "Al-Aqsa flood."

So, contrary to expectations and opinion polls, the ruling coalition's candidate, the current Minister of Economy Sergio Massa, jumped to first place, winning 36.68%, leaving Javier Melai in second place with 29.99%, to intensify the pace of competition and alliances to win the presidency of Argentina on November 19, succeeding Alberto Fernández.

Admiring Israel

Regardless of the surprises, which confirmed that the biggest loser was the far-right candidate Milai - who was betting on winning from the first round, to avoid continuing to reveal more aspects of his ideas and actions that shocked many and made them shake off those around him - we should learn about this political phenomenon.

Milai defines himself as a liberal liberal economist and anarchist capitalist, capable of pulling Argentina out of its severe financial crisis, through his inimitable and "courageous" ideas, and that he is a great admirer of Judaism, supports Israel in heart and soul, and considers it the most prominent partner of his government, should he win. In return, he promises to abolish all state role in partnership with China and Russia, and all socialist and anti-Israel regimes, including Brazil, Argentina's strongest regional economic partner. The list of countries that do not appeal to him also includes the Vatican, and promised to cut his country's relations with it, and the pope of Argentine origin was not spared from his famous obscenity and curses, describing him as a mercenary, which drew the anger of large segments of society, but on the other hand, she appealed to youth groups rebelling against everything.

In fact, Milai represents a phenomenon that has occupied people and the media and asked a lot of ink, because of the features of his personality, whether in terms of the private side of his life or the political aspect, and suffice it to say that the name of his fame - which was given to him by his childhood friends and his companion to this day - is "crazy", and like the title of a book on his biography, which was recently written, from one of those interested in studying his personality. In addition, his name set records in many areas, including the classification of his television interview with the American broadcaster Tucker Carlson, the most watched dialogue in history, beating former US President Trump's dialogue with the same broadcaster during his election campaign.

On the other hand, the storming of the presidential race in Argentina represented a shock to the supporters of the polarity that ruled the country for several decades, represented by the "Alberonesmo" current, the pioneer of the policies of the social left and its right-wing opponents, and the rise of its popularity proved its rocket high chances of winning, and breaking that polarity, considering that the ideas promoted seek to blow up all the ideas of the previous currents that ruled the country, but rather threaten it with the harshest penalties since the first day he took power, without even the need to pass through parliament. He confirmed that winning first place in the primary elections in his first participation, that his super-populist rhetoric succeeded in convincing voters that "evil", bankruptcy and the collapse of Argentina was due to the idea of the state, which was run by previous governments, and therefore the state is the problem and not the solution according to his opinion, and that he and his team, who alone can save the country, confirming the slogan of his campaign "the only solution." Milai is betting that reducing the role of the state – by eliminating all services that support the role of the "state sponsor" for citizens – will save 14% of GDP. In addition, he considers that institutions such as the central bank are merely a deception by governments to cover up the acquisition of public money for the benefit of their people. He also believes that the state needs only eight ministries, and the rest can be reduced to administrative branches of these ministries, including the Ministry of Women or the Environment, which he considers a "joke" to flirt with the popular feminist and environmental culture. The promise that represented an exception in Milay's electoral platform - compared to others - was to dispense with Argentina's currency, the peso, and replace it with the US dollar, during the first year of his rule, knowing that the value of the "pesso" collapsed during the last twenty-five years from a level where 1 pesso equaled $ 1 to 1,000 pesos could equal $ 1 in some cases, since exchange rates vary according to the target, as set by the government.

Inversion of results

Curiously, the coup d'état that took place at the level of results – and made Minister of Economy Massa occupy the first place in a country with the second highest inflation rate in the world, at 140%, and a poverty rate that affected 40% of society – confirmed that the owners of the new votes he gained prefer a minister who can be considered the most important responsible for the aforementioned economic collapse, over a candidate of "eccentric and ideas" who could lead the country to perdition. In this context, some analysts argued that a large part of the votes that went to Milai in the preliminary round, was a cry of anger or warning to the current government and its predecessors, and their owners did not expect that Milai would get that percentage he reached, so they withdrew his support in the first round. Others believe that the primary round never represented a serious test to determine the popularity of candidates, and therefore the rational and loyal vote of the "Peronesmo" movement cannot dispense with the support of its candidates, in difficult stations, aware that the government of Fernández and Kirchner is not the only responsible for the financial and social crisis experienced by Argentina, but must be trusted in the future, because "the worst has passed", in the words of Sergio Massa.

Despite all of this, the possibility of Milai winning the presidency in the next round remains unlikely if more than two-thirds of supporters of Patricia Bullrich, the opposition candidate and interior minister of former President Macri's government, respond, although it is relatively unlikely. In any case, however, the "Al-Aqsa flood" and the resulting military and political complications for the Israeli government remain the most unexpected event that has distracted the Israeli government from continuing to support its potential asset to recover Argentina from the Chinese embrace.

Sergio Massa