All eyes were on the summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Russian city of Sochi on Monday. Many were waiting for results on issues of great importance, foremost among them the Black Sea grain export deal, which Russia withdrew from last July.
The ceiling of expectations
Russia's position on the grain export agreement has been largely clear, and relations between Turkey and Russia have not been at their best lately; over the past few weeks, they have been described as having oscillated between lukewarm and tense, without reaching the level of crisis.
Turkey has taken Sweden's accession to NATO to parliament for debate after agreeing in March to Finland's accession to the alliance. With Erdogan's statements about the possibility of discussing Ukraine's membership in the alliance, and his handover of Azov battalion officers to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, these moves sparked resentment in Moscow, which initiated a message expressing its displeasure and/or denunciation of Ankara.
It was not expected that the Turkish president would be able to convince his Russian counterpart of his country's return to the previous agreement with its previous texts and known applications, but it was more likely to reach or pave the way for an agreement modified, developed or complementary to the previous one or even a completely new agreement.
Delaying Putin's supposed visit to Turkey in August and turning it into a visit by the Turkish president to Sochi this month was one Russian expression of reproach/anger toward Ankara. In addition, the withdrawal from the grain export agreement, which although originally directed against Ukraine and European countries, was also a message to Ankara, which played the role of mediator in it and previously persuaded Moscow to return to it more than once.
Russia has also previously accused Turkey of violating the prisoner exchange agreement after the extradition of Azov officers to Zelensky during his visit to Ankara. The bombing of Ukrainian factories that export military parts to Turkey was seen by some as a veiled message to Ankara. In the same vein, the inspection of the ship, which was bound for Ukrainian ports last month, even though it was carrying a non-Turkish flag and owned by a Turkish company, was interpreted as another message from Russia.
Therefore, expectations were not high about the outcome of the meeting, in which many expected it to address many issues, foremost of which is the issue of Russia's return to the grain export agreement. Although Erdogan went to Sochi with the hope of restoring the deal — which is a "bridge of peace" in the Black Sea and is important not only for economic revenues but also as a way to ease tensions in the region — Putin has remained steadfast in his country's position, which demands real guarantees and not just promises to return to the agreement.
The return of warmth
Therefore, given all of the above, it was not expected that the Turkish president would be able to convince his Russian counterpart to return his country to the previous agreement with its previous texts and known applications, but it was more likely to reach or pave the way for an agreement modified, developed, or complementary to the previous one, or even a completely new agreement.
Upon a quick reading of the outcomes of the Russian-Turkish summit at the presidential level, we find that the files discussed were numerous, but the two most prominent files are: the file of Russia's return to the grain export agreement, which is the announced file, and the implicit file, which is relations between Turkey and Russia.
At the level of bilateral relations, and based on the statements of the two presidents during the joint press conference and the joint conference of the foreign ministers of the two countries a few days ago, we note that the warmth has returned to the relations between the two countries to some extent, although things have not necessarily returned to what they were months ago.
The language at the joint conference between Fidan and Lavrov was very positive regarding relations between the two countries, although it did not give strong signals about reaching a specific agreement. The same was repeated at the joint conference between Putin and Erdogan. As for the talk about the development of economic, trade, tourism relations and other files related to bilateral relations, it was distinguished and on an optimistic tone, which indicates a strong political will on both sides to develop and strengthen relations.
Moreover, Erdogan's brief speech at the press conference and his responses to questions confirmed and supported the Russian narrative, regarding its reservations about the implementation of the grain export agreement regarding Russian distribution and sanctions, as well as his call on Ukraine to "soften its position" and take steps in parallel with Russian steps regarding grain exports.
As for the grain export agreement, Putin was not convinced to return to it as before, which was expected, as mentioned above, but this does not mean that it is impossible to reach an agreement in this regard.
The Turkish president spoke about proposals formulated by his country in cooperation with the United Nations and handed over to Russia, and these proposals include solutions to Russian reservations about the implementation of the agreement. As for the Russian president, he spoke of a model of cooperation with Turkey and Qatar to export grain as a gift to some poor African countries that need it.
Clearly, through the model, Putin wanted to send a message to the West, which received the largest share of grain exports when poorer countries were supposed to do. It underscores his country's willingness and ability to take alternatives to the old agreement without the need to return to it. But most of all this model is repeatable with various technical details. Although Erdogan did not reveal the nature or details of the proposals he presented to the Russian side, it is certain that these proposals aim to restore Russia's cooperation on the grain export file, albeit under a different title or name, but with the same philosophy, i.e. contributing to exports and providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
Therefore, we say that it is still possible to reach an understanding or agreement with Russia; not necessarily very soon, but Ankara is still able to play the role of mediator in this file and convey opinions between Kiev and Moscow, whose foreign minister visited them respectively in the past few days and listened to their demands and their respective positions.
On the other hand, the presence of the Syrian file has declined relatively at the summit, or more precisely at the press conference of the two presidents. Russia's preoccupation with the Ukrainian war, recent developments on the ground in Syria, the passage of Turkish elections, the recent chill in relations between Ankara and Moscow, and other factors contributed to this. Even Fidan's tone as he speaks of the Syrian regime has changed considerably and has been firm and direct when talking about our irreversible "expectations of the Syrian government." Despite the above, additional political steps toward the Syrian regime may see the light of day in the medium term, especially if the positive trajectory of relations between Russia and Turkey continues.
Similarly, the press conference of Putin and Erdogan dealt with other files of common interest to the two countries in which they could cooperate, foremost of which are Libya and the South Caucasus, as well as combating terrorist and separatist organizations in northern Syria that are allied on the ground with the United States.
In conclusion, although it seems that the summit that brought together Presidents Putin and Erdogan in Sochi did not provide tangible outputs in the files on its agenda, foremost of which is the export of grain, it contributed significantly to thawing the ice between the two sides, and opened the door to a possible positive path in bilateral relations in the future, as well as paving the ground for the possibility of reaching an agreement regarding grain exports in the foreseeable future.