Holding military coups in Africa

The recent coup d'état in Niger that ousted incumbent President Mohamed Bazoum from power is no exception, but an extension of a continuous series of coups in West Africa over the past decade, shortly preceded by three other coups in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, not to mention coup attempts in more than one other African country over the past years.

Since 2012, the African continent has witnessed nearly 45 coups or attempted coups against power, an average of 4 coups or attempted coups per year. This rate brings to mind what has been happening in the African continent since the independence of most of its country, including many coups and coup attempts, especially during the sixties and seventies of the last century. According to some statistics, the African continent has witnessed more than 200 military coups in 90% of African countries, with an average of about every 55 days. Coups d'état in Africa accounted for approximately 36.5% of all coups globally. The African countries with the most coups were concentrated in West Africa, which is classified as a "coup belt", with the largest number of coups on the continent at 44.4%.

Unlike what happened in the past, the figures who were overthrown were not liquidated or assassinated, and the number of victims was not large during the coups, especially when compared to what happened in other countries.

While the pace of coups declined relatively after the end of the Cold War and the early nineties as a result of Western promises of democratization and economic prosperity, this appeared to have been just a fighter's break, as coups returned again. However, there are important observations and differences between the recent coups and those that occurred in the fifties and sixties, according to several international reports.

• According to some statistics, the age of these leaders ranges between 34 and 41 years old, meaning that these coups are carried out by young men of low military ranks, such as colonels, lieutenant colonels and captains, most of whom belong to special forces units or the Republican Guard, as happened recently in the Niger coup.

What is worrying here is that coup leaders may seek to stay in power for a long time, unless other coups turn against them, or presidential elections are organized in which civilian figures are chosen.

• The second observation is that most of the coups that have taken place in Africa recently have been less violent and bloody, and at the same time have had some kind of popular support, or at least have not met resistance from the people or the political opposition in the country."

Unlike in the past, the figures who were overthrown were not liquidated or assassinated, and the number of victims was not large during these coups, especially when compared to what happened in other countries, such as the coup d'état in Ghana in 1966, the coup d'état in Equatorial Guinea in 1979, and Guinea-Bissau in 1998.

"The leaders of the recent coups have also been popular, as in the 2020 Malian coup, which won the support of nearly 82% of the Malian people, according to the Afroparmeter Index, after the people lost confidence in the ousted former President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. Sanctions imposed after the 2021 coup in Mali have also boosted support for coup leaders. Similarly, the January 2022 coup in Burkina Faso (the fifth coup in a decade) saw the ouster of President Roch Kabore and received significant popular support.

• The third observation is the use of anti-Western rhetoric by coup leaders, especially former colonial states such as France, which formed a cornerstone of the speeches and slogans of the leaders of the military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and more recently in Niger.

We have seen many demonstrations against France in Niger in support of the coup. This rhetoric is relatively similar to the speeches of the leaders of the military coups of the fifties and sixties, which were mainly against the foreign colonizer, especially France. These rhetoric is characterized by populism and stirs people's feelings to justify the coup, regardless of the consequences that may arise afterwards.

• The fourth observation relates to the Russian role in the recent coups in Africa, whether this role is direct through political and diplomatic support or through military and media support through mercenaries and militias of the Russian "Wagner" Group, which is present in the continent of Africa and enjoys great political, military and media influence in the African Sahel region.

What's more, there are numerous reports of Moscow's involvement in coups and attempted coups in Africa over the past few years. For example, news reports indicate that the putschists who overthrew Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita received training in Russia before returning to carry out the coup in August 2020. Other reports also show that Russia was involved in the second coup in Mali that took place 9 months later in May 2021 and that led to Assimi Goïta taking power in the country.

It seems that the contagion of coups may continue to spread in Africa like wildfire, and it would not be surprising to witness successive coups, whether in the West African region or in North and East Africa in the coming months and years. This trend comes in light of the ongoing transformations in the international system and the ongoing conflict between major powers such as America, Russia, and China, which seek to consolidate their influence on the African continent.