U.S. Strategy for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization (4) | The secret of choice

In an interview with PBS on 9/12/1994, when he was a member of the US Senate, President Joe Biden, commenting on the chaos prevailing in Haiti after the overthrow in a military coup of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the first democratically elected president, said, "The United States is suffering from more urgent crises, and Haiti is not of particular importance to American interests." "If Haiti were to sink into the Caribbean or rise 300 feet, it would not matter to the American interest."

What made Haiti suddenly jump to the center of the US administration's concerns, placing it at the top of the list of countries that will work to prevent conflict and promote stability in it, in implementation of the US strategy to prevent conflict and promote stability in 10 years?

The other question is about those countries involved – which include Haiti, Libya, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Benin, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea and Togo – why these particular countries? Are they the most fragile and in need of conflict prevention and stabilization? What plan has the US administration developed for each of them? What about the rest of the world, which suffers from fragility in various fields due to conflicts and instability?

The interests of America and its allies are the decisive factor in the choice of the nine countries for the plan to address international fragility, prevent conflict and achieve stability, away from flashy slogans and flowery phrases about sustainable development, stability, rights, equality, health, education and well-being.

U.S. interests first

The U.S. Conflict Prevention and Stabilization Strategy clearly defined the basis on which countries to be implemented would be chosen, which is to focus on the most vulnerable countries and regions, but the strategy was also clear in determining that the choice should be consistent with the National Security Strategy, and that the selected countries should be those in which fragility poses a threat to the interests of the United States and its allies and partners.

Looking at the group of selected countries, and according to the United Nations Human Development Report 2021-2022, we are the ten least developed countries in the world (Guinea, South Sudan, Chad, Niger, Central African Republic, Burundi, Mali, Mozambique, Burkina Faso and Yemen) – according to the 2022 OECD Vulnerability Report – the ten most vulnerable countries in the world are Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad, Syria, Congo and Haiti.

Consideration of previous reports reveals that only two of the countries selected by the US administration were included in the list of the least developed countries in the world, namely Guinea and Mozambique, and that one country on the US list was among the most fragile countries in the world, Haiti, and this shows beyond any doubt that the national interests of the United States and its allies are the main and decisive factor in choosing the nine countries for the US administration's plan, away from flashy slogans and flowery phrases about development and stability. rights, equality, health, education and well-being.

The US strategy did not indicate the real reasons behind choosing those countries, which share their circumstances with other countries that are more deserving of this attention, with the exception of Mozambique, which ranks 184th in the lowest global list of human development, which includes 191 countries, the latest of which is South Sudan.

However, a first look at the distribution of these countries on the world map (see map) reveals that they occupy very important geostrategic positions in the east, west, middle and south of the globe, which we will present with some clarification when we deal with these countries separately.

Many questions push us to search for the real reasons that made America choose these countries over others, to get closer to understanding the way the United States works in the world, away from evasive slogans and suspicious aid.

Reasons for choosing

The first country to choose the US administration's plan to prevent conflict and promote stability is Haiti, one of the Caribbean islands that people hardly know about except political conflicts and natural disasters, and although Haiti ranks 164th in the Human Development Report, and tenth in the list of fragile states, but this was not a sufficient reason to choose it to be the first in the US administration's plan, what are the reasons on which this choice was based? What does Haiti represent to the interests of the United States and its allies and partners?

In the Arab world, it was very surprising that Libya was chosen to be the second country on the US administration's list in the next ten years, in order to prevent conflict, achieve stability and establish an elected democratic government consistent with the rules-based world order.

Libya ranks 104th among the countries of the world in the Human Development Report for the year 2021-2022, and is listed among the countries with high development, and although it ranks 16th in the list of fragile states, it is preceded in this classification by other Arab countries such as Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Sudan and Iraq. However, the US administration chose Libya, not Somalia, Yemen or Syria, for example, and this prompts us to look for the reasons that prompted the US administration to make this choice.

Papua New Guinea in the far east of the globe ranks 157th in the Human Development Report, ahead of 34 countries most in need of support and development, and 27th in the list of fragile states, leaving 26 more fragile and turbulent countries, which in turn means that the selection reference is not the level of development or the level of fragility, but other reasons.

Mozambique, although ranked 184th in the Human Development Report, ranks 24th in the list of fragile states, preceded by 23 more fragile and troubled countries, which means there are other reasons for choosing it as well.

As for the countries of the West African coast (Benin, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea and Togo), their story is the mother of stories, as these countries occupy - adjacent - the southern part of the west coast of the continent of Africa, and share the same characteristic of Liberia and Sierra Leone, which the US administration did not include in its plan, despite the fact that the development index is low and the vulnerability index is high in each. Liberia ranks 178th, Sierra Leone ranks 181st in the Human Development Report, Liberia ranks 21st and Sierra Leone ranks 41st in the list of fragile states.

Why did the US administration exclude these two countries, despite their merit in terms of development and fragility, and despite their average geographical location on the coast among the other five countries selected by the report?

The answer to the previous question is part of the answer to the question of choosing the other five countries, which we will answer when we address them in the next articles hopefully, with the US administration's plans for each of them.

The search for the answer to these questions puts our hands on the real reasons why the US administration chose these countries over others, and enables us to understand the way the United States leads the world, away from evasive slogans and suspicious aid, which always ends tragically.

The US strategy has chosen 9 countries to be the focus of its attention for the next ten years in order to prevent conflict and stabilize them, as it claims, so what about the rest of the countries that suffer from fragility and poor development? Will you wait for its turn in the next ten-year strategies? This is what I have not found clarification for, neither in the US strategic plan to prevent conflict and promote stability, nor in the current US administration's plan.

(To be continued... Haitian Creole.. The curse of the revolution)