In light of the continued stumbling of truces. Can Sudan's confrontations be resolved militarily?

Military and strategic expert Maj. Gen. Fayez al-Duwairi said that the Sudanese army's resolution of its confrontations with the Rapid Support Forces militarily is possible, but it needs to reformulate the military approach in a different way, pointing out at the same time that "the bill for the costs of that decision will be high."

Speaking to the program "Beyond the News" (2023/5/1), he said that the approach that the army is working to achieve is to weaken the capabilities of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), so that this forces them to accept a political approach that gives them real size, and does not give them the opportunity to control Sudan.

This comes against the backdrop of what the Sudanese capital witnessed on the 17th day of confrontations, from the Sudanese army's bombardment by aircraft of the positions of the Rapid Support Forces, which responded on its part with anti-aircraft, while violent clashes are taking place in a number of locations between the two sides, despite the entry into force of the sixth truce agreed by the two parties for 72 hours.

Major General Al-Duwairi said that the confrontations in their first two days witnessed confident announcements by the Rapid Support Forces for their progress and the talk of Montaser is about to resolve the confrontations, due to the fact that they initiated the clash, but after 48 hours, the army was able to absorb the shock, and use the cards of power it possesses, to turn the fight in its favor.

He added that the army was unable to impose total control over the scene due to political considerations, including holding 6 truces whose reality was closer to calm, stressing that the confrontations that are taking place cannot be described as fighting cities in the literal sense, but rather separate confrontations framed in specific places such as the vicinity of the presidential palace, the headquarters of the General Command and the airport.

In this context, he pointed out that if there is fighting cities in the real sense, a city the size of Khartoum needs months or even years to resolve the battle, pointing to what is happening in the Ukrainian city of Bakhamout, where fighting has been going on for months despite its small population and area compared to Khartoum.

He explained that if the army wants to resolve the battle militarily, it needs to change its fighting strategy, which requires a long period of time, and the use of highly trained forces that have not yet entered the battle line, and rely on an integrated intelligence system, stressing at the same time that it is difficult to regain full control of Khartoum in the near term.

Widening of the conflict

He believed that if there is no quick military resolution as a first scenario for the future of confrontations, this will lead Sudan to the expansion of the conflict to include all states after it was confined to 3 states next to Khartoum, which may lead to the fragmentation and division of Sudan.

He pointed out that the second expected scenario is the Libyan scenario, if the army manages to take control of the capital Khartoum without a complete military decision, and the Rapid Support Forces leave to other states.

The third scenario, which is what the international community hopes – according to the military expert – is that the two parties to the fighting feel that the possibility of military resolution is out of the question, and are convinced of the need to sit at the negotiating table, which is similar to the scenario of the Ethiopian scene.

Mohamed Torchin, a Sudanese writer and political researcher, said that the data on the ground confirm that the two sides do not clearly respect the truce in light of the continued violations by them, and the exploitation of those truces to increase mobilization and strengthen their strengths.

The Sudanese writer ruled out the possibility of military decisiveness, especially if the leaders of the Rapid Support Forces left Khartoum and stationed with their forces in other governorates, but he did not rule out achieving military decisiveness if the army forces were able to arrest the Rapid Support elements before they were able to leave Khartoum, considering that this scenario will help reduce losses.

If the RSF manages to reach the Darfur region, Torchin predicted that the repercussions of this scenario will be dire for Sudan and may lead to open civil war in different parts of Sudan.