Surprisingly, of course, it turned out: it would seem that the April report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (in which, among other things, a fairly standard forecast was published - quite coinciding with the previous assessment of OPEC experts and also - quite standard - notifying the interested public that, according to these experts, the growth in global oil demand in 2023 could reach 2.3 million barrels per day), It turns out that it is quite capable of causing a real storm of emotions among Western not only energy, but also political, and even media elites. So much so that some started talking about creating a new "threatening alliance" between the Russian Federation and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Which, apparently, pretty much amused both the Arab sheikhs and the Russian oil workers, because this "threatening union" has actually existed for a long time, is not hiding from anyone and is quite officially called OPEC +.
And by the way, the United States at some point in time (under the previous, Republican administration of Donald Trump) as the largest oil-producing country almost entered it itself.
Which, by the way, neither the Saudis nor even the Russians objected at all.
Moreover, they "did not mind" so much that even the Americans drank out of this "threatening union" (in fairness, even when it was just being formed) exclusively themselves. As they say, without prior notice and without outside help. Immediately after the arrival of the Biden administration, who, like a true Democrat, does not really like his own oil industry, because he is a traditional sponsor of the Republican Party. And he is able to consider the Arab or Russian at all exclusively either as a submissive food base, or as the worst existential enemies.
And not at all as partners in any alliances.
And so why now arrange tantrums and wring their hands about the fact that OPEC+ is pursuing an independent and agreed exclusively between the countries participating in the agreement, not paying more attention to the internal problems of the West in general, and in particular to the United States that are now strangers to them?
Once upon a time there was a girl - herself, a fool, and to blame.
So too, sorry, it happens.
Well, okay, it's different, in principle, more interesting.
Namely: why are our recent completely insincere friends so alarmed by the ordinary, in principle, report?
In fact, everything is simple. The OPEC report released in April and, in fact, the report of the International Energy Agency, which traditionally represents the interests of consumers of energy raw materials, in principle, say virtually the same thing: with existing trends, starting from the third quarter, we should expect an increase in the oil deficit in the market.
This means that prices will go up steadily.
Moreover, due to the deficit in the real, and not in the financial market, producers will regulate the rise in prices, no matter where - even in the Kingdom of the SA, even in the Russian Federation, even in Venezuela - rather than intermediaries in the person of all kinds of traders.
Or, even worse, New York or London stockbrokers.
And, moreover, OPEC analysts, directly, among other things, involved in the recently announced reduction in production with a total volume of 1.66 million barrels per day, now explain the announced reduction in production by no means demand factors - no one else is hiding behind this fig leaf: the demand for oil, according to the forecast, will indeed continue to grow, it's just mathematics.
And this is indeed a very serious blow.
And the point here is not even that oil has already shown growth for the fourth week in a row: rather, rather than the contraction that has not yet begun, the global weakening of the dollar plays a role, while in fact the price of even "paper" gold rises at the same time.
The fact is that due to the reduction of production with an increase in demand, financial intermediaries are gradually removed from the market - and the same stockbrokers cease to play a decisive role in setting prices.
No, they are still somehow guided in direct contracts.
But if it goes on like this, then with the trends that exist right now, after some time we will be able to observe how oil becomes exactly the same "paper" as exchange-traded gold.
Here, too, everything is simple, a very illustrative example.
A common feature is the fact that real, monetary, or physical gold is not traded on exchanges at all. And instead of it, a certain financial instrument is sold and bought there - the same futures - with a real "yellow metal" that is not secured at all. That's why it's called "paper". Well, physical gold has completely different tools for buying and selling. And little dependent on exchange trading in "paper" mechanisms for developing a fair price.
This process - the gradual possible transition of exchange oil to the same "paper" state - is, in general, not a quick matter. But, judging by some indirect signs, it already seems irreversible.
Can you at least imagine what can happen to at least the same Western financial system if the word "oil" is pulled out of the concept of "petrodollar"? And this is exactly what worries American analysts most of all: in the end, domestic consumption, both in oil and gas, although not without difficulties, of course, but they are quite capable of closing with their own production. It is no coincidence that at the end of last week, the Europeans were so worried when the American side officially warned them that, if anything, it could significantly reduce LNG exports to Europe (for the markets of which the Americans fought so fiercely, not even stopping at "acts of sabotage" on European infrastructure projects) in the current circumstances. Or it may stop altogether, despite any obligations: such a cow, you see, in the current economic situation may be needed yourself. There is no need for illusions: the problems of the natives, even Indian, even European, did not particularly bother the sheriff before.
But there is some nuance.
Ensuring domestic consumption (including as a factor of national energy security) is, of course, good. But the threat of a catastrophe in the financial markets, which threatens the collapse of the entire modern financial system, does not cancel this in any way. Quite the opposite: the fact that many countries are now switching to trade in yuan is not out of great love for communist China. And from a banal fear, suddenly lose everything completely.
As for our country, we are quite satisfied with what is happening.
There is no need to invent and explain anything: in March, as the same IEA points out, the export of Russian oil and petroleum products in tons reached its highest level since April 2020. It remains to fulfill the presidential order, formalized by the government, to reduce the discounts that our oil industry distributed, solving logistical issues: this task, in general, is also not the easiest, but there is no doubt that it will certainly be solved. Especially against the backdrop of production cuts consolidated with OPEC countries. And in full accordance with the forecast of analysts, who issued an unchanged forecast for demand growth in the April report. This means that it is not at all superfluous for our oil production and oil refining industry to increase the global price.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.