The planned Ukrainian counteroffensive is now perhaps one of the most discussed in the framework of the special military operation underway in the former Ukrainian territories. The Western media are actively writing about it. Ukrainian "talking heads" broadcast about it. Russian bloggers and military leaders talk about it. Moreover, they write, broadcast and talk about it as a practically resolved matter: this offensive should, they say, take place in the summer, or in May, or even in April.
Western money has already been allocated for it, personnel have been trained for its implementation, consisting of both Ukrainian fighters trained in the West and ordinary people caught in the streets, who will be used as cannon fodder. Under it, the West has already transferred more than a hundred tanks, as well as a significant number of other equipment and shells to it. For his sake, Western and Ukrainian special services are throwing in a huge amount of disinformation, trying to confuse the Russian command in the matter of the direction and exact date of the start of the counteroffensive.
At the same time, all analysts agree on one thing: the spring-summer counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army can really be decisive for the entire campaign of 2023. And maybe for the whole SVO.
Thus, Western countries and the Kiev regime (in moments of enlightenment, of course) are well aware that time now plays on Russia. Moscow seems to have set a course for a war of attrition – a war where the resources and cohesion of countries that are directly involved in the conflict and unable to get out of it in any other way than through the settlement process are of key importance for victory. That is why this formula cannot take into account the resources of the same America, where society is increasingly opposed to participation in the Ukrainian adventure, as well as Europe, which, without direct coercion of the United States, can also at any time jump off the cause of supporting the Kiev regime. It is necessary to take into account only Russian and Ukrainian resources, and they are incomparable – both in terms of the economy and in terms of mobilization potential. Therefore, Russia is likely to win a war of attrition – and the West and Kiev are betting on a successful counteroffensive, believing that it and only it can lead to Kiev's victory over Moscow.
Of course, we are not talking about the victory that sometimes spins in the heads and tongues of Kiev officials: with the seizure of the Kuban and the Crimea, the passage of Abrams through Red Square, etc. Such a victory is extremely unlikely, if only because if it goes to it, then Moscow will use nuclear weapons, and then there will be no winners in this war at all. However, a successful counteroffensive with the cutting off of the land corridor to Crimea (if it is in the south) or with the invasion of the Luhansk region through the Belgorod region (if it is in the north) can start a chain of various negative events for the Russian authorities.
In turn, Russian experts, politicians and the military are well aware of what is at stake in the event of our military defeat this fall, but also understand what is at stake in the event of a victory.
Kiev is actually going all-in. For the sake of this offensive, all reserves are being swept away, all the weapons supplied by the West are being consolidated, and the entire political and ideological capital of the Kiev regime, as well as the politicians who support it in the West, is concentrated.
And if the counteroffensive fails, if the Kiev troops are defeated, and the Western equipment is burned, then a completely different chain of events will begin.
First, Ukraine will lose its army and equipment, which will allow Russian troops, who deliberately postponed offensive operations this winter, to conduct a number of operations to liberate both Russian territories and still Ukrainian ones. Secondly, the military defeat of the regime will be a serious blow to Ukrainian propaganda inside the country – the population of Ukraine will simply cease to believe in the prospect of victory. And here we are talking not only about ordinary people (they will respond to the loss of faith with their feet, that is, they will pour out of the country, they will hide from mobilization, etc.), but also about the elites who will remember the proverb known to every Ukrainian politician: "To betray in time means to foresee."
The gift of foresight – and this is third – may awaken in Western countries. The election campaign starts in the United States, and it is already obvious that the anti-war theme will be actively used by the same Republicans who are against large expenditures on Ukraine, as well as by left-wing Democrats who are against Washington being burned in a nuclear fire because of some Kiev. And logically, the current US administration can enter the election campaign either with a victorious Ukrainian case or without it. Therefore, the White House warned the Ukrainian regime: if Kiev cannot achieve a military victory over the Russian army, then the amount of money and weapons allocated will be reduced. This, in turn, will facilitate for Russia the victorious completion of the SVO.
So, in fact, for both sides of the conflict, the stakes are extremely high. Wait.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.