Nagasaki University and others conducted simulations based on the international situation to determine how many people would die if nuclear weapons were actually used in Northeast Asia, and announced the results.
Even in cases with limited damage, 25% of the population of the attacked area died within a few months of the use of nuclear weapons, and he pointed out that "it is necessary to face the risk of nuclear use and review the security framework that relies on nuclear deterrence."
If nuclear weapons were used in Northeast Asia
The Research Center for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons, Nagasaki University, conducted a simulation in collaboration with research institutes in the United States to determine what kind of damage would occur if nuclear weapons were used in Northeast Asia in order to consider measures to prevent the use of nuclear weapons.
Based on
the nuclear strategies and international situation of the countries concerned, simulations were conducted for five cases, including a case where a total of three nuclear weapons were used around the Korean Peninsula and
a case where up to 3 nuclear weapons were used by nuclear powers over Taiwan, including powerful nuclear weapons. We estimated the number of people who die due to the effects of radiation.
As a result, it was estimated that 24,5 people, or 1% of the population of the attacked area, would die within a few months even if a single bomb was used, and 25.22 million people would die if a large number of weapons, including powerful nuclear weapons, were used.
In this simulation, taking into account the effects of the "fire whirlwind" in which flames and smoke become like tornadoes, it was estimated that many people would die from cancer over a wide area, and depending on the weather conditions, the radioactive materials generated by nuclear explosions spread significantly, and the number of people dying from cancer was estimated to reach up to 92,<> in several decades.
Professor Tatsujiro Suzuki of the Center said, "The use of nuclear weapons due to misunderstandings and lack of communication between hostile countries is a possible situation, and it is inevitable that enormous damage will be caused if even one is used.
Five simulated cases of nuclear weapons use
A research group from Nagasaki University and others assumed that nuclear weapons could be used based on the nuclear strategies actually announced by each country and the current international situation, and analyzed the "fire whirlwind," in which flames and smoke resemble tornadoes, in addition to blast waves, heat rays, and radiation, and the extent of radiation dispersion, and estimated the number of people who will die in several decades due to the effects of radiation exposure.
The simulation is conducted for five cases.
Case 1: Assumption used by North Korea for intimidation
This is a case in which North Korea, cornered by domestic and foreign economic pressure, uses nuclear weapons for intimidation with the aim of bringing the United States and South Korea to the negotiating table.
It is assumed that the South Korean navy and coast guard will use 10 kilotons of nuclear weapons equivalent to TNT gunpowder, which is smaller than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, in order to target the coastal area of South Korea because it is invading North Korean territory and threatening its citizens.
The United States responds to South Korea's request with conventional weapons and then uses two small nuclear weapons to target ICBMs = intercontinental ballistic missiles that threaten the United States and its allies and points that are thought to be hiding nuclear forces.
After that, diplomatic negotiations will be intensive, and further use of nuclear weapons can be avoided, but 2,27 people, or 1% of the population of the attacked area,
will die in a few months alone.
It is estimated that between 1000,1 and 6000,3 people will die of cancer in the long term due to radiation and dispersed radioactive materials.
Case 2: Assumption that the United States will use preemptively against North Korea
This is a case in which the president of the United States preemptively uses nuclear weapons to attack North Korea's nuclear missile system in response to domestic political pressure, etc., because the U.S. mainland is threatened by ICBMs that North Korea has repeatedly tested.
North Korea will respond with nuclear weapons targeting U.S. military bases in South Korea and Japan, and China, worried that North Korea will be controlled by the United States, will intervene, and the United States and China will nuke their respective military facilities, and a total of 20 nuclear weapons will be used, including 18 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
It estimates that 33.210 million people, or 48% of the population of the attacked area, will die in a few months alone, and between 92,<> and <>,<> people will die of long-term cancer from radiation and
dispersed radioactive materials.
Case 3: Assumed to be used by terrorists in urban areas in Japan
This is a case in which a terrorist group detonates a small nuclear bomb smuggled into an urban area in Japan country in order to attract attention.
It estimates that 25,22 people, or 41% of the region's population, will die in just a few months, and between 56,<> and <>,<> people will die of long-term cancer from radiation and
dispersed radioactive materials.
Case 4: Assumption that Russia will target U.S. military bases in Japan
As tensions rise due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United States deploys bombers equipped with nuclear weapons on submarines and ships at sea at the request of Japan and South Korea Japan while Russia will use five nuclear weapons of 10 kilotons and 150 kilotons, which are more than 200 times the power of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima targeting U.S. military bases in Japan and Japan ships at sea.
The U.S. will strike a base in eastern Russia with three small nuclear weapons, after which further use of nuclear weapons will be avoided through diplomatic efforts by Japan and South Korea.
It estimates that 5,3 people, or 36% of the population of the attacked area, will die in the months alone, and between 29,1 and 4000,8 people will die of long-term cancer from radiation and
dispersed radioactive materials.
Case 5: Assumed to be used by China and used by the United States for counterattack
It is a case of growing antipathy towards the Chinese leadership and the assumption that the Chinese leadership attacks Taiwan's defense facilities to distract the public, while Taiwan responds with American military support and escalates.
In this case, if China, concerned about further U.S. involvement, decides that conventional weapons alone cannot win, it will abandon its nuclear strategy of "no first use of nuclear weapons" and attack U.S. military bases and ships in Japan and South Korea with five 250-kiloton nuclear weapons.
In response, the United States will respond to ICBMs and bases where nuclear missiles may be located using 5 small nuclear weapons, and it is assumed that a total of 10 nuclear weapons will be used in both countries.
It estimates that 24.35 million people, or 260 percent of the population of the attacked area, will die in a few months alone, and between 9,6000 and 83,<> people will die of long-term cancer from radiation and
dispersed radioactive materials.
The purpose is "to think about measures to prevent the use of nuclear weapons"
The Nagasaki University Research Center for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons conducted a simulation with the aim of verifying the risks of nuclear deterrence and considering measures to prevent the use of nuclear weapons.
The Center is working on a three-year project jointly with the Nautilus Institute of the United States, which studies security from the beginning, and spent one year summarizing 3 possible cases, including how nuclear weapons will be used in 1 and 2025, and where.
In addition to four of these cases, based on Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, simulations were conducted over a period of one year from April last year, based on the nuclear strategies actually announced by each country and the current international situation, after determining specific conditions such as the scale and the point where nuclear weapons will be used.
We estimated the number of people who died immediately after the bombing and
the number of people who would die of cancer over the long term due to the effects of scattered radioactive materials.
"The first use of nuclear weapons could escalate into a global nuclear war in the coming days, implying conservative humanitarian, political and social tragedy," the report said.
In addition, it states that the use of nuclear weapons originates from misunderstandings of intentions between hostile countries and lack of communication, and in order to reduce such risks, ▽ Communicating one's own intentions, military exercises, missile tests, etc. to
hostile countries,
It is important to maintain communication between nuclear-armed states no matter what issues arise that undermine political relations.
He also pointed out that as a step toward the elimination of nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia, it is necessary to create a regional security framework such as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone.
The Center will compile measures to prevent the use of nuclear weapons in the future.
Professor Tatsujiro Suzuki of the Center says, "Simulating a nuclear war is difficult for the A-bombed area, but because it is an A-bombed city, it is important to deepen our understanding of what will happen in a nuclear war and to disseminate it to the world, which should lead to the message that Nagasaki will be the last place to suffer from the atomic bombing."