Familiar foods that use wheat, such as udon, ramen, bread, and okonomiyaki, are facing the risk of further price increases.
The price for selling wheat imported by the government to milling companies was announced, and from next month the price will rise by 5.8%, reaching a record high of 76,750 yen per ton.
In addition to the response of each store, we asked experts about the outlook for future wheat prices.
Udon restaurant considering price increase
This is an udon restaurant in Nishihaze-cho, Takamatsu City.
We serve about 700 servings of udon noodles a day at peak times, and use about 60 to 70 kilograms of wheat flour.
Since this store uses imported wheat, there is a limit to the company's efforts alone, so in March last year, they decided to raise prices by an average of 10 yen to 20 yen.
If the price of wheat flour rises in the future due to the increase in the selling price, we will have to consider further price increases, but considering the customers who have become part of their lives with udon, a significant price increase is unlikely. It is said that it is difficult.
Masaaki Kagawa, president of Sanuki Mengyo, said, "We have no choice but to consider raising the price of udon, but it is extremely difficult to pass on all of the increased cost to the price. I want to make the price as low as possible for the customer."
The store that decided to go out of business
The udon restaurant in Miyawaki-cho, Takamatsu City was hit hard by the new corona, and it was finally starting to show signs of improvement, but this time it was affected by soaring raw materials and utility costs.
We raised the price of udon twice by up to 50 yen each, but we continued to run at a loss.
Considering that there is no prospect that the price hike will settle down in the future, and students account for nearly half of the customers, we decided to close the business at the end of this month. bottom.
"Arimaru Udon 2" Kinji Watanabe, owner
"It's a pity and I'm sorry to our customers, but I can't help but think that the closing time is important."
Changes in the price of imported wheat
About 90% of the wheat consumed in Japan is imported, and in order to secure a stable supply, the government purchases it in bulk and sells it to milling companies, etc., and the price is set every six months in April and October. will be reviewed.
However, from last year to this year, the purchase price soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, etc., so the government did not review last October and left the price unchanged.
According to the announcement, the selling price after next month will rise by 5.8% to reach a record high of 76,750 yen per ton.
If calculated based on the purchase price for the most recent year, the selling price per ton will be 82,060 yen, with a price increase of 13.1%. I decided to suppress the price increase by calculating with.
However, the amount of the price increase will be borne by the government, and the amount will be about 10 billion yen.
The selling price of imported wheat has reached a record high since the introduction of the current system, and it is expected that it will lead to further increases in the price of products that use flour as a raw material, such as bread and noodles.
There is also a view that “continues to remain high”
We asked Akio Shibata, representative of the National Institute of Natural Resources and Food Problems, who is familiar with the world's food situation, about the outlook for wheat prices.
Q. What is the outlook for the international market for wheat?
A.I believe that the market may still be destabilized depending on the future development of the prolonged invasion of Ukraine.
There are concerns about whether exports from Ukraine, a wheat producing country, will continue smoothly in the future, and what the weather will be like in the United States, the main production area, which has been in a drought trend since April.
In addition, we expect the price to remain high due to factors such as rising transportation costs due to the normalization of economic activity that has fallen due to the corona crisis.
Q. What do you think about the government's decision to curb the increase in the selling price as a measure to alleviate the burden?
A. As the rush to raise prices for food continues, if the price of wheat, which is the raw material of many foods, is further raised, the impact will be large, so there are some unavoidable parts.
However, temporarily lowering prices may not be a fundamental solution.
In the first place, there is also the question of whether it is okay to continue with the conventional idea of ``the cheaper the better,'' and the fact that imported wheat accounts for most of domestic consumption.
From the perspective of food security as well, we must expand the production of domestically produced wheat and put effort into efforts to encourage consumers to purchase wheat at a fair price.
Now is the time to focus on promoting domestic agriculture.
Bread store "may lead to customer turnover"
Regarding this increase, there are concerns about the loss of customers at bread stores in Tokyo.
A bread store in Mitaka City, Tokyo, uses about 200 kilograms of flour a day to make about 7,000 loaves of bread.
At this store, we raised the price three times from January last year to January this year due to a series of soaring raw material costs.
Among them, the price of curry bread, which uses plenty of beef, has increased from 194 yen including tax until December 2021 to 248 yen at present due to the soaring prices of oil and beef.
If the selling price of wheat rises, the purchase price of this store will also rise, and the store is considering raising the price.
However, I am concerned that further price increases could lead to a loss of customers, as the products are familiar to our daily lives.
Mr. Shigekazu Matsui, Toho Bakery
"Since wheat flour is the most used ingredient, it is very painful to see it go up. We will try to keep the price increase as small as possible and provide new products and services to our customers. I want to return it as
Ramen shop "price increase due to heartbreak"
A restaurant in Tendo City, Yamagata Prefecture, which offers ramen, is forced to raise prices.
In Yamagata Prefecture, there are many soba shops that serve ramen, and a long-established soba shop in Tendo City, which was founded 180 years ago, serves up to 1,000 servings of ramen a day.
On average, about 30 kg of imported wheat is used per day, so every time the selling price is raised, management is under pressure, and in October 2021, the price was raised by 50 yen.
From next month onwards, the selling price of imported wheat will be raised, which means that the price of ramen will have to be raised by another 20 to 30 yen.
Mr. Chobei Yahagi, the owner of a soba restaurant and the chairman of an association of soba and ramen restaurants in the prefecture, said, "It's hard to raise the selling price. Not only the price of flour, but also fuel, soy sauce, and all other ramen ingredients have gone up. We have to protect the livelihoods of our employees, so we will raise the price out of desperation."
Okonomiyaki restaurant "Further blow to management"
An okonomiyaki chain headquartered in Osaka is concerned that the rise in the purchase price of eggs and other ingredients will hurt its business.
At an okonomiyaki restaurant in Tennoji Ward, Osaka, run by this company, wheat flour is used in about 80% of the menu, and it is said that they use more than 10 kilograms of okonomiyaki flour per day on holidays.
In April last year, this store raised the price of many of its main products, including "Butatama", but due to the increase in the purchase price of oil and eggs, as well as the cost of heating and lighting, and labor costs, We are considering further price increases in the spring.
Under these circumstances, I am concerned that if the purchase price of okonomiyaki flour, noodles, etc. rises due to the increase in the selling price of imported wheat, it will be a further blow to management.
"Tsuruhashi Fugetsu" operating company Ryosuke Gokage Director
"Sales are returning to pre-coronavirus levels, but even if they recover to the same level, they will not be able to make a solid profit due to the rise in costs. Looking ahead I want to think about the price and product content.”
Ukraine invasion on the back of rising prices
In order to stabilize the supply, demand and price of wheat, which is mostly dependent on imports, the government is conducting "state trading" in which wheat is imported in bulk and sold to milling companies.
From April 2007, the selling price will be determined by reflecting the price purchased by the government, and will be reviewed every six months in April and October.
The highest price so far was 76,030 yen per ton in the six months from October 2008, due to the decrease in wheat supply due to global bad weather.
After that, the price hovered around 50,000 to 60,000 yen, but there was a poor harvest in North America, the main production area, and the situation in Ukraine, an exporter of wheat, became tense, and supply instability spread. Then, in April last year, it exceeded the 70,000 yen level again, reaching 72,530 yen per ton.
After that, the purchase price of wheat soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, so the government did not review October last year and left the selling price unchanged in order to suppress the rise in food prices.
And this time, based on the instructions of Prime Minister Kishida, the government has decided to calculate the selling price for the most recent six months, excluding the period when the impact of the price hike was large, and to limit the price increase to less than half.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has said that it will decide how to decide future sales prices based on trends in the international market and exchange rates. The issue is whether to take