In fact, in the scenario being implemented right before our eyes, it’s not even the fact that Russia will voluntarily and quite predictably reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March that is interesting: even with the most competent reorientation of supply routes from the conditional “west” to the conditional "east" certain problems with logistics were still inevitable.
Everyone understood this very well, both in our country and abroad.
As well as the fact that these problems will certainly be temporary: the only question is how much and how this time interval will affect both domestic and global markets.
And how what is happening will affect the current alignment of forces.
Well, the first results already seem to be there.
And the question here is not even how the exchanges reacted to this reduction, everything is clear here.
Masters of geshefts work there on short and medium positions, and by no means strategists.
Therefore, they were certainly quite ready for the current volatility.
That is why, on the very first day, crude oil prices jumped there by an average of $2, and in the future, according to overseas financial analysts, after a short period of volatility, this could lead to an increase in world prices by at least $3-5 per barrel.
Unless the price rally accelerates, of course.
But then peaks are quite possible, at the moment even exceeding $100.
But this is only a small, and very short-term part of the consequences of the decision to reduce production announced by the Russian “energy” Deputy Prime Minister Novak, and, as they say, on the near track.
The strategic consequences may turn out to be much more critical and fundamental, although they will manifest themselves, of course, not immediately, but after some - however, not at all distant - time.
Since now, against the backdrop of a growing systemic crisis, all trends in the global economy are sharply updated, and processes are accelerating even at a visual level, the first systemic consequences can be expected already this year.
Serious American analysts, at least, are talking about the III-IV quarters of 2023.
But the situation on the markets is changing so rapidly that we will, as they say, see.
And first of all, it is worth looking now in the direction of the Arabian Peninsula, on the monarchies of which a lot depends on this strategic crossroads.
Many, but certainly not all.
And the Arabian Peninsula, it seems, has not just said its word.
And he said it in such a way that few people had any doubts that the “Russian scenario” was at least consistent with him.
Well, most likely, this is just a single scenario worked out within the framework of one notorious agreement.
However, let's go in order.
Last Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that Moscow would voluntarily cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, specifying that the reduction in production would only affect oil, excluding gas condensate.
At the same time, the reduction in production will be calculated from the real level of production, and not from the Russian quota under the OPEC+ deal.
And an unnamed source in the industry even noted that Russia made this decision on its own and there were no consultations with OPEC+.
True, literally after that, the information space was first blasted by lightning from the Reuters agency, which officially announced that OPEC + did not intend to increase production due to Russia's decision.
Despite, by the way, the fact that this could be done, quite easily, not even by the OPEC + agreement, but by one single kingdom of Saudi Arabia: 0.5 million barrels per day - the figure for Saudi production is far from the most impressive.
This means that the process is more important than the result.
But the decision of the Saudis, announced immediately after that, to raise export prices for oil for buyers in the Asia-Pacific region, where Russian oil companies are just hastily throwing their not the easiest logistics, no longer looks random from the word at all.
And the fact that it can push leading traders to increase the stock price of North Sea Brent crude up to $100 per barrel is more of a side effect, although undoubtedly a pleasant one for the kingdom.
What can be said here?
Actually, we have already written about this more than once: it seems that a big energy redistribution is beginning in the world.
But it will be connected, apparently, not with the “reign of the petroyuan”, not with the activity of Indian processing and not with intrigues within the Western community, which American financial analysts are so publicly afraid of: the “redistribution” was started by the producing countries themselves.
Whom the current picture in global markets, when speculators sitting in distant New York can drive the prices of their products even into negative values, is not at all satisfied.
And it can’t just suit purely mathematically: even in order to protect democracy and all 80 genders combined.
In addition, the Arabs have a very specific attitude towards both democracy and gender diversity, even we look more than tolerant against their background.
Medieval conservative traditionalists.
But at the same time, those who understand and value their own interests are much clearer and more rational than their unfortunate predecessors, who entered into very successful deals with the Western business community to exchange their gold or, say, the Manhattan Islands for a pair of such beautiful and brilliant, obsolete guns and a bunch of glass beads.
Anyway.
This is about a big strategic game, and we will talk about this more than once, because there will certainly be occasions.
And here you don’t even need to think of anything special.
Let's just see how the figures on this board will shift when, within one or two quarters, China, which is gradually coming out of the "covid hibernation" that has bothered even itself, will accelerate at least to the previous level.
And there are such fears that then even the exchange price of $100 per barrel will seem to many, to put it mildly, intermediate.
And then, will the “stock exchange pricing decision center” in its current form still be located in New York?
Or move somewhere in Hong Kong?
Or, as has already happened in fact with the increase in prices in the Asia-Pacific region, Riyadh will deal with pricing issues on its own, agreeing on changes at best through closed channels with Moscow,
As for our extractive industry, the reduction in production looks in the current circumstances, of course, unpleasant (what good is that?), But far from fatal.
As for the industry itself, so, by the way, for the budget.
This reduction will not affect domestic consumption in any way, and the shortfall in export earnings, in theory, should be compensated for by rising prices.
Well, at the same time, the appetites of some buyers from quite friendly countries about bonuses, I hope, will be able to moderate somewhat.
Because friendship is, of course, important, but on some issues tobacco is still apart.
By the way, not so long ago, President Putin expressed concern about this issue.
But the main thing, of course, in what is happening is still not this, but the very exit to the "strategic energy crossroads" in the world, whose economy - and no one argues with this - is still controlled by oil.
This means that it is extremely important who will manage this very oil, not only in matters of physical production and processing, but also in other parameters.
For example, in matters of pricing.
And in matters of the global “oil confrontation” that is unfolding right before our eyes, this is precisely the main thing.
And the bonuses here are just a nice side effect.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.