Over the past weeks, calls for demonstrations spread in Egypt on November 11, launched by a number of Egyptian opposition activists and media professionals abroad, which did not happen.
People did not go out to demonstrate, in light of the unprecedented deployment of the Egyptian security forces and police in all cities and squares.
This raises many questions about the truth of what happened, why the Egyptians did not go out to demonstrate, and the fate of any other calls for that.
To begin with, this is not the first time that calls for demonstrations have been issued, especially from outside the country, and they have not received a wide response as desired and expected by those calling for demonstrations.
Other similar calls came in recent years, and limited numbers of demonstrators went out, as happened in 2019 and 2020, after the appearance of the Egyptian contractor and businessman Muhammad Ali, who is currently residing outside the country, and his call to demonstrate.
The advocates of the demonstrations thought that the situation might be different this time, and that people's response to their call might resonate more, while some believed that the country was about to stage a revolution similar to what happened on January 25, 2011.
The advocates of the demonstration based their call this time on 4 basic elements that may have relevance and logic, namely:
First - The holding of the United Nations Climate Conference (COP27) in Egypt, and the presence of thousands of officials, researchers, activists and media professionals in this global event may reduce the chances of the Egyptian regime resorting to suppressing any movement or demonstrations, for fear of international embarrassment.
Secondly - betting on the rise and spread of the level of internal rejection and anger, especially among the poor classes, due to the poor economic and social conditions the country is going through, which the regime itself has recognized on more than one occasion, the latest of which was the statements of "General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi" during the economic conference held It was held in late October.
Third - What appeared to be a decline in regional financial and economic support for the Egyptian regime, which Sisi personally recognized at the aforementioned conference;
This was interpreted by some as the system going through a state of weakness that must be exploited.
Finally - the United States was preoccupied with the war in Russia and the conflict with China, and thus its support for the Egyptian regime declined, especially in light of its stances towards Russia and its failure to fully adopt the American position on the war on Ukraine.
However, the advocates of these demonstrations missed several things, the most important of which are:
The state of severe repression that the country has been experiencing since the overthrow of the rule of the late President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013 and the establishment of an individual dictatorial regime that is highly sensitive to any calls for demonstrations, and suffers from a "phobia" of repeating the January revolution, which he warns of in every way.
This means that people going out in front of a blind machine of repression is like a process of self-suicide, especially if there is no clear plan or strategy for the demonstration, let alone a clear leadership and organization for it.
Likewise, those calling for demonstrations missed that popular anger alone is not enough to take to the streets or create a movement, let alone launch a revolution.
If that were the case, people would not have stopped revolting and revolting all the time, especially in light of the deteriorating economic and living conditions.
There is also a significant segment of Egyptians who are afraid of the unknown, and of the absence of available alternatives and political options that they can trust so that they can sacrifice for them.
The origin of change is internal, and the outside is an auxiliary and supportive factor.
Therefore, believing that you can lead a revolution from thousands of miles away from the country is naive and even reckless.
And if there are lessons that must be learned in light of the repetition of these calls for demonstrations, then 6 of them can be mentioned:
First: There is no specific date for the revolution
Revolutions are a sudden event that does not carry a specific date or timing in advance, and often occurs at a time that the regime or its advocates may not expect in the first place, and in most cases they need a trigger, a spark, or some incident to ignite them, similar to what happened to the Tunisian youth Mohamed Bouazizi who set himself on fire. in December 2010 to protest his ill-treatment by the police;
He thus launched the spark of the Tunisian revolution.
Second: No repeat of the January revolution
Some activists and a sector of Egyptians are still prisoners of the romantic model drawn by the "January Revolution" in their minds, memories and imaginations, and are convinced that it can be repeated in its entirety (calls for demonstrations, gatherings in mosques, marching to the squares, etc.).
This logic - in addition to its naivety and superficiality - is still captive to an experience that had its own circumstances, context and situation, which is difficult - if not impossible - to replicate it in the same way, mechanisms and tools.
Today we are facing a different reality in almost everything.
A completely different regime from the Mubarak regime, and a different generation that does not know politics and has not practiced it over the past decade, but rather considers it sometimes a sin that must be avoided, and not fall into it, as a result of the constant intimidation and intimidation of collective consciousness, and a regional and international reality that opposes or rejects revolutions;
Therefore, what has been tried in the past does not necessarily work now.
Third: There is no revolution without organization and leadership on the ground
Uprisings and revolutions are not just a passing or ordinary event, but a system of work and continuous effort that needs arrangement and coordination on the ground, so as to help mobilize, mobilize and lead the demonstrators, and without that, the matter is just a outburst of anger that ends within hours and with a little repression.
Fourth: No revolution from outside
The origin of change is internal, and the outside is an auxiliary and supportive factor.
Thus, the belief that it can lead a revolution from thousands of miles away from the country is naive, and even reckless.
Fifth: There is no revolution without a broad national front
There can be no revolution without a front that includes most of the spectrum of the political opposition.
Frontal action - especially under dictatorial regimes - is a necessary and essential condition for the success of any uprising or revolution.
This is what happened in most of the Arab Spring revolutions, which would not have succeeded without a minimum level of political consensus among the opponents.
Finally: the revolution does not happen overnight
The revolution is a cumulative process that may take months, years, or even decades.
History is full of examples in which uprisings and revolutions continued until they achieved their goals.
Therefore, it is naive for some to believe that he will stage a revolution within one day, unless it is only in his dreams.