The ecological transition is too slow to avoid a climate catastrophe.
This is according to a report published Wednesday by a consortium of research organizations.
Virtually all sectors of the global economy are affected.
Whether it is electricity, industry, transport, food production, deforestation or finance, the conclusion is the same: progress in 40 key indicators must accelerate by dramatically to stay in line with the Paris Treaty target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
In many cases, they must be multiplied by ten or more.
"The harsh truth is that none of the 40 indicators we assessed are on track to meet their 2030 targets," said the report's lead author, Systems Change Lab researcher Sophia Boehm.
It is "an urgent wake-up call for policymakers, who must engage in real transformation of all aspects of our economy," said Ani Dasgupta, director of the World Resources Institute, one of six think tanks. on climate policy who participated in the drafting of this 200-page report.
Another year closer to 2030, & we find in the #StateOfClimateAction 2022 that, once again, climate action across sectors accounting for ~85% of GHG emissions falls well short of what's needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
See what's needed to get on track: https://t.co/HlIRqVYeBv.
pic.twitter.com/ah52o6puS1
— Sophie Boehm (@SophieBoehm) October 26, 2022
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Electricity, the biggest source of CO2 emissions
The Earth's surface has already warmed by 1.2°C, enough to trigger a deadly and costly crescendo of storms, floods, droughts and heat waves.
And on Wednesday, a few days before the start of COP27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, the UN warned that the commitments made for the climate at the moment fell far short of the objective of the Paris Agreement.
To avoid dangerous overheating, global CO2 pollution must decrease by 40% by the end of the decade.
In 2050, the world must be carbon neutral, ie offset the remaining emissions by eliminating CO2.
According to the report, the most glaring shortcomings appear in the electricity sector and in that of deforestation.
Phasing out coal used to generate electricity without filtering CO2 emissions is to be six times faster, equivalent to shutting down nearly 1,000 coal-fired power plants per year for the next seven years, they found.
The electricity sector is the largest source of CO2 emissions globally, and coal, which accounts for almost 40% of the world's electricity production, is by far the most carbon-emitting fuel. fossils.
Public transport, meat consumption
Progress must also be doubled on deforestation.
"While it is difficult to reach the 1.5°C objective today, it is totally impossible if we reduce our carbon sinks" which are forests, warned Kelly Levin, scientific director at the Bezos Earth Fund.
We are also heading in the wrong direction in several other areas, the report points out.
This is the case for the share of natural gas in electricity production, the kilometers traveled by private cars and carbon pollution in agriculture.
The authors thus estimate that public transport systems such as metros or bus networks should develop six times faster, that the quantity of carbon emitted during the production of cement should decrease ten times faster, or that the Per capita meat consumption must fall and the transition to sustainable diets must be five times faster.
Finally, concerning the financing of the transition, a stumbling block during the COPs, the report estimates that it must grow ten times faster than recent trends.
It had reached $640 billion by 2022.
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