China News Service, Beijing, October 12 (Wei Xianghui) The La Niña event is one of the important factors affecting the climate.

The latest monitoring results of the National Climate Center show that the La Niña event in the equatorial and central and eastern Pacific is further continued and is expected to continue into the winter of 2022/2023.

　　Regarding the question of whether this year is a "cold winter" or a "warm winter", the China Meteorological Administration replied to Chinanews.com that it is not yet able to issue relevant forecasts.

The National Climate Center will hold a winter climate conference in late October, and will provide the latest forecast opinions and service information in a timely manner.

After the La Niña event, the temperature in most parts of the country in winter is lower than the same period of the year

　　La Niña, the transliteration of Spanish "La Niña", refers to a phenomenon in which the water temperature of the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator drops abnormally.

　　In August this year, the World Meteorological Organization, based on the Global Centre for Long-Range Forecast Products, predicted that the current La Niña event will continue for the next six months, with a 70% probability of September-November 2022, but a 70% probability of December-February 2022/2023. month probability will gradually decrease to 55%.

　　The National Climate Center stated that the La Niña event has an important impact on the regional climate anomalies in autumn and winter, such as the autumn rain in western China, the autumn drought in the south, and the autumn flood in the north.

　　Under normal circumstances, in the winter after the La Niña event (from December of the current year to February of the following year), the main characteristics of my country's winter temperature anomalies are: the temperature in most parts of the country is lower than the same period of the year, especially in the northern part of North China, the southern part of Northeast China, and the southern part of China Most, the eastern and northern parts of the Southwest, most of the Northwest and other places.

　　After the La Niña event, the winter precipitation in my country is mainly as follows: the large-scale precipitation is less, especially in the eastern Northeast, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the southern Southwest, and the northern Xinjiang;

　　It should be noted that there are interdecadal differences in the impact of La Niña events on my country's winter climate.

According to the statistics of the National Climate Center, 15 La Niña events have occurred since 1951. Before 1986, the winters of the La Niña events in my country were all cold winters. However, in the context of global warming, the frequency of warm winters in the year of the La Niña events increased after 1986. .

This autumn, the country will show a "warm and dry" climate feature

　　Since this autumn (September 1 to October 9, 2022), the national average temperature has been 16.7°C, which is 0.6°C higher than the same period of the normal year; the national average precipitation is 70.9 mm, which is 9.9% lower than the same period of the normal year, showing a "warm and dry" "Climate Characteristics.

　　A total of 679 national-level meteorological stations across the country had the highest daily temperature reaching or breaking through the historical extreme value of the current month, of which 321 stations such as Qingyang in Anhui and Yangxin in Hubei reached or exceeded the historical extreme value of the current season.

　　The national average precipitation is the seventh lowest in the same period in history since 1961.

The daily precipitation of 86 national-level meteorological stations across the country reached or exceeded the historical extreme value of the month, of which 21 stations reached or exceeded the historical extreme value of the current season, and Luxi, Yunnan broke through the historical extreme value.

　　The National Climate Center reminds that the La Niña event is only one of the important factors forcing the underlying surface that affects the climate in my country in autumn and winter. The winter climate is influenced by factors such as Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover. At the same time, the internal natural variability of the atmospheric circulation system also plays an important role. effect.

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