In fact, the decision of the OPEC + countries, which refused to soften the requirements for cuts in oil production in April, which was quite unexpected for the markets, looks like that rather in the opinion of that part of the expert community that focuses exclusively on the positions of traders and stock speculators.
And not to that real world of "big oil", "big production" and a real, not virtual "big oil game", in which everything has been developing recently for some reason, to put it mildly, somewhat differently.
So, in particular, according to the opinion of the Minister of Energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Prince Abdelaziz bin Salman, the situation on the oil market has improved, if it has improved, then only in relation to last January ...
And this rather controversial "improvement in the markets" was rather ensured by the fact that the OPEC + countries voluntarily agreed to maintain restrictions in February - March.
And the kingdom of Saudi Arabia itself still and in addition for these two months purely voluntarily cut production by another 1 million barrels per day.
A very serious and quite demonstrative "signal".
And the situation here looks all the more piquant against the background of a separate Russian position, or rather, even the opposition: we just thought the increase in production was quite acceptable, and ... the OPEC countries "as a compromise" - an unprecedented case - went to meet us: with the consent of the OPEC countries First of all, the kingdoms of Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kazakhstan still got the opportunity to increase oil production in April by a total of 150 thousand barrels per day.
Yes, it was beautifully furnished and driven by the "needs of the domestic markets" (more on that below).
But only the rest of the alliance, including the kingdom itself, will not add a barrel to the market next month.
What does this tell us.
First, to all appearances, the countries of the “old OPEC” have completely stopped taking into account the factor of “shale production” at the global level.
Otherwise, they would not have chosen a strategy so openly to increase the price of oil: a barrel has long been in a comfortable price corridor for shale production, but there is still something that has not even revived.
Therefore, OPEC does not demonstratively increase production, "squeezing out" real prices.
What for?
And the Russian, even together with the Kazakhstani, insignificant growth of production here plays almost no role.
And besides, this is really - without guile - it is precisely about our domestic markets, about the growth of domestic demand: the Russian negotiator for OPEC +, "energy" Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak quite convincingly explained this: mass vaccination in the country is already simple in fact, it raised the demand for fuel above the pre-crisis level.
And now the spring field work is just around the corner.
“This is very important for us, now there is seasonal demand.
We need to increase the volume of refining at our refineries and meet the growing demand for oil products in Russia, ”the Deputy Prime Minister explained on the air of“ Russia 24 ”.
And in such a scenario, then there really is nothing to argue about: pricing in the domestic markets of Russia is quite different from the formation of global prices for oil and oil products, even at the level of mechanisms.
Therefore, it is important for the Saudis here that we do not increase our exports too actively.
And in general, they do not particularly pretend to our domestic markets, we can do whatever we want on them, because otherwise it would be completely, excuse me, ridiculous.
But even this is not the newest and most interesting - moreover, there is, in principle, nothing new here.
The fact that American oil production, which a year ago broke all records in terms of volume and came out on top in the world, was facing difficult times, became clear immediately after Trump's defeat in the last presidential election.
Everything is simple here.
It was the Republicans who saw the point in rescuing the national oil industry, which was severely affected by the systemic crisis of 2020, and tried to systematically change something there.
Including negotiating with the Russian Federation and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Trump then, if you remember, just showed miracles of shuttle online diplomacy, it was really important for him.
The victorious Democrats have slightly different priorities.
Green energy, everything.
And here the only thing that may seem unexpected is the speed of the processes taking place within OPEC + now, when the Saudis, with the polite neutrality of the Russians, actually wrote off the American oil industry not in some foreseeable future, but right now.
Quite presumptuous, of course, but they have certain reasons for this.
The matter is, in general, everyday life.
Here something else is much more curious: namely, the goals that the Minister of Energy of the Kingdom, Prince Abdel-Aziz bin Salman, are not embarrassed to declare, in this sense he is quite frank.
So, this is nothing more, but not less than "stability in the oil market."
That is, manageability and control over pricing, with the establishment of a single fair price.
We quote literally: “You can ask as much as you like about the price, but I will avoid comments on this topic.
I am not talking about prices, I am ready to talk about stability and I am ready to assure you that volatility in the oil market is limited. "
The hint, in general, is clear: last year's chaos in the futures market with a price rally and a subsequent mini-catastrophe, apparently, the OPEC "informal cartel" taught a lot.
For example, the fact that it is better to coordinate production and pricing policy with Russia and other non-OPEC countries through OPEC + mechanisms than it is easy to entrust them to stock speculators, who then just as easily arrange stock exchange tricks with a "negative oil price" ...
And you are wrong to think that for some of the real player-producers or even real big traders it was really funny.
And in such a simple way, in general, by refusing to ease restrictions on production and thereby provoking, if not a shortage, then a premonition of a shortage of strategic raw materials, OPEC + is actually intercepting “price control”.
It is clear that this process is not as fast as someone in Riyadh (and to be honest - and in Moscow) would like to, but the trend, you see, is very, very curious.
It makes sense to follow.
Simply, if only because these are the elements of that very diverse post-crisis world that is gradually taking shape, which, of course, will become much more multipolar, not only politically, but also economically.
And not only from the point of view of the "regionalization of economies" predicted by almost all expert institutions, but also much more serious global coordination at the level of leading industries.
In the world energy sector, at least, the process seems to have "started".
And the role of OPEC + as a single coordinating center (possibly in the field of pricing, because a cartel, even such an "informal" one, needs a unified pricing policy, the mechanisms of which, perhaps, are now being worked out also in it, in this new world), apparently, it seems completely different.
And if this is really so, then the current "bullish game" in this case is so far only, as they say, a test of strength and the elaboration of interaction mechanisms.
But how far all this will be able to go in the very historically near future - it will just be very interesting to look at this.
But the world production, and, most likely, the global trade in oil and oil products, now, it seems, will definitely not be the same.
But OPEC +, on the contrary, shows itself - even in such difficult and truly crisis times - as a fairly sensible and effective regulatory tool.
Which, of course, needs to be improved, but the use of which in the mid-term historical perspective is simply a sin to avoid.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.