Who is fooling "Beijing house prices will rise 30% after the year"

　　Our reporter Zhao Yingying

　　"The property market in Beijing now is an open-book exam. Don't ask any more, just one word: buy. As long as you have the money and are eligible, don't hesitate, whether it is the first set of self-occupation, improvement, school district, or investment. Buy it." One day, if you see this content on Weibo, will you panic and go out to see the house?

　　Under the "jumping theory" advocated by the media, some buyers began to panic buying houses, and the market experienced short-term fluctuations.

　　However, after several consecutive days of visits, the reporter found that some self-media are using flicker "surge" as a means to amplify the anxiety of buyers and stimulate the expectation of price increases in the real estate market.

In terms of actual transaction volume, although there are sporadic school districts, housing transactions have increased, but it is by no means a general rise in the property market.

　　Big V says

　　"Urgently" house prices will "jump up"

　　Comparing the Beijing property market to an "open-book examination" is the self-media called "Beijing Datudou".

On January 17, "Beijing Datudou" published an article about houses on its account, directly persuading readers: "It's best to buy before the Spring Festival, especially the four areas of the East, the West, and the Seas... We must be urgent, now For the second-hand houses that are listed for sale, the actual homeowner does not even have one third of them that can actually sign.

　　There is more than one person with this argument.

"Hesitate, miss a good opportunity; wait and see, regret it" "Do you want to buy a house in Beijing in 2021? Don't doubt it, you must buy it"... When there is still half a month before the Lunar New Year 2021 Spring Festival, Beijing's property market, which has been stable for a long time, suddenly has more restlessness the sound of.

　　In the sound of restlessness, in addition to the argument that the "property market is heating up" revealed by the salesperson of the intermediary agency during the tour, the "jumping theory" is also widely spread on the self-media platform.

　　"The current property market in first-tier cities has nothing to do with ordinary people. Take Beijing as an example. In the past year, the Haidian Leading School District has increased by 30 points, and the luxury housing market has increased by 20 points." From the media "Fang Shizi" January 22 A passage written on Weibo in Japan triggered a lot of discussion.

　　Some opinions from the media are even more stark.

The WeChat public account "Taofang Military Master" directly posted that "even if financial regulators will strictly examine operating loans, the Beijing-Shanghai real estate market will see a 30% increase in the next year" and "home buyers want to buy on the eve of skyrocketing."

　　"I originally wanted to change my school district for a better second-hand house. I looked at one of them without anxiousness, but several big Vs said that the house price was going to rise, which made me feel a little flustered." Citizen Mr. Xu is very worried whether such a "jump theory" will directly affect his life trajectory in the next ten or even twenty years.

　　Explore the market

　　The homeowner behind the case sincerely sells at a fair price

　　How is the real Beijing second-hand housing market?

With Mr. Xu's questions and concerns, the reporter visited several areas.

　　Haidian Shangdi Dongli is a recent hot school district housing community.

According to media reports, on January 24, Shangdi Dongli sold a house with a north-south direction of 70.66 square meters, with a total price of 10.95 million yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 154,900 yuan per square meter.

　　“As the Spring Festival approaches, there are relatively few new listings, and there is really little room for negotiating prices with the owners.” Lianjia agent Xiao Cui said that after July last year, the transaction volume of school district housing increased, and the price also rose slightly, but 15 The transaction price of 10,000 yuan per square meter is the most expensive case, and it does not represent anything.

　　"I have a house of 80.65 square meters in my hand. It is the only one for five years. The owner sells it sincerely, and the price is only 123,000 yuan per square meter." He said.

　　"Niu baby goes to Haidian, Puwa East and West City." This is a sentence circulating among the parents of Beijing.

When the high-priced cases of Shangdi Dongli were constantly magnified, the school district housing became a hot topic again.

　　But Mr. Xu used his actual experience to tell the reporter that even in Haidian District, many communities are still stable: "I saw a second-hand house in Xiaojiahe last week. When I entered the community, I asked the security guard how many people looked at the house. Two people came in one day, and the owner did not raise the price during the whole process."

　　In Fengtai Chunyuan District, when the reporter asked the broker about the recent second-hand housing market, the other party also said that the selling cycle is indeed faster than half a year ago, but the price has not fluctuated much, and most owners can still negotiate the price.

　Insiders say

　　"Xiaoyangchun" does not want to be hyped before it arrives

　　Cases aside, from the data point of view, the second-hand housing market in Beijing showed a tailspin at the end of last year. In the fourth quarter, the monthly transaction volume of second-hand housing increased continuously, with 14,330, 17,268, and 20,944 online signings respectively.

　　By January 2021, although second-hand residential transactions were still active, the monthly transaction volume had fallen to 20,000 units, and 17,513 units were signed online in a single month.

　　"The recent tail-over phenomenon has a lot to do with the apparent increase in demand for housing in school districts." According to analysis by Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, a large number of people studying abroad have returned due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have four front lines. The demand for housing in school districts in cities has risen significantly, which has driven the market to pick up.

　　"Except for individual school district houses, other areas can still negotiate prices with second-hand house owners." Xiao Li, the store manager in Haidian District, said frankly that the situation where owners increased the price by 400,000 yuan overnight does exist, but it is an extreme case, and most large The V speculator did not say that the price increase was only the quotation rather than the transaction price. "I actually don't want the market to be hyped up and amplify irrational expectations, which is not good for anyone."

　　Xiao Li told reporters that from the fourth quarter of each year to the Lunar New Year of the next year, it is relatively an active period for school district housing transactions, because school district housing transactions are mostly two sets of houses, and it takes enough room change cycles to allow children to enter school smoothly. "This round of'warm winter' should not be deliberately enlarged."

　　"Beijing's property market is among the most stable among the first and second-tier cities in the country, and it is the most difficult to buy houses. Under this circumstance, high temperatures are unlikely." Zhang Dawei mentioned that the competent authorities have previously stated that they will severely crack down on malicious speculation and illegal funds entering the property market. , "The current property market is far from'Xiaoyangchun'."