Under the supervision of an epidemiological expert, NHK is an index to see the infection status of one person in the "three weeks of the game", which is a short-term intensive countermeasure against the spread of the new coronavirus. The "effective reproduction number", which indicates how many people are infected with the virus, was analyzed by a simple method.

It was found that the number of effective reproductions nationwide continued to exceed "1" as the infection spreads even after calling for "three weeks of competition", and infectious disease experts said, "It is effective. It doesn't look like it, and we need to take stronger measures. "



NHK is an epidemiology expert, and under the supervision of the director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Motoi Suzuki Epidemiology Center, the "effective reproduction number" that shows how many people one infected person spreads is simply used. I calculated.



In order to obtain the effective reproduction number more accurately, it is necessary to consider more conditions such as estimating and calculating the onset date, but this time based on the number of infected people for each confirmed day. In addition, it is calculated by a simple method.



It is said that if the effective reproduction number exceeds "1", the infection will spread, while if it falls below "1", it will converge.

Nationwide

The number of effective reproductions nationwide


was 1.26 as of the 10th of


last month, 1.33 as of the 17th of


last month, and 1.24 as of the 24th of last month.



It dropped a little after the call for "three weeks of the game"


▽ 1.03 as of the 1st of


this month


▽

1.02 as of the 8th of this month

▽ It was 1.11 as of the 15th, but it did not fall below "1" and the infection is spreading. it is continuing.

Tokyo

Also, in Tokyo,


▽ 1.19 as of the 10th of last month


▽ 1.26 as of the 17th of last month


▽

It was

around 1.25 and 1.2 on the 24th of last month, but after calling for "3 weeks of the game"


▽ as of 1st of this month 1.03


▽ As of the 8th of this month, it was 0.98, which was below "1".



However, as of the 15th, it was 1.14, and the trend of staying high continues.

Osaka

In Osaka prefecture,


▽ 1.11 as of 10th of last month


▽ 1.41 as of 17th of last month


▽ 1.30 as of 24th of last month and the infection was in a state of spreading, but it has entered 3 weeks of the game


▽ as of 1st of this month 1.02


▽ 0.99 as of the 8th of this month


▽ 1.01 as of the 15th, which is around "1".

Aichi

Aichi Prefecture is


▽ 1.19 as of 10th of last month


▽ 1.29 as of 17th of


last month


▽

Entering 3 weeks of competition with 1.22 and 1.2 as of 24th of last month

▽ 1.10 as of 1st of


this month


▽

1.02 as of 8th of this month

▽ As of the 15th, it is 1.04 and around "1".

Hokkaido

On the other hand, in the Hokkaido


▽ It was higher than 1.68 and the whole country at the time last month 10 days, Sapporo city in the interrogation and to refrain from going out of nonessential in front of the "three weeks of the game"


to ▽ time last month 17 days Is 1.32


▽ It started to fall to 1.10 on the 24th of last month


▽ 0.91 as of the 1st of this month


▽ 0.90 as of the 8th of this month


▽ 0.95 as of the 15th, which is below "1" for 3 consecutive weeks.

Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, who is the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "If we do not keep the effective reproduction number below 1 for as long as possible, we will not be able to converge. The effect of calling "3 weeks" seems to be almost non-existent. The exact number is not known until another week or two, but the number of new infections continues to reach the highest level. I think the situation will continue to be extremely difficult in the future. We need to take stronger measures, such as requesting further shortening of restaurant business hours. "