The R0, that is to say the reproduction rate of the coronavirus epidemic, is again less than 1: this means that infected people contaminate less.

Encouraging data confirmed by the number of hospitalizations in decline, but which does not yet relieve the pressure on hospitals.

DECRYPTION

In the coming hours, French hospitals should have more Covid-19 patients than in the spring, during the first wave.

In fact, nearly 32,000 patients are currently hospitalized, very close to the peak of 32,300 recorded on April 14.

The rate of admissions is not slowing down: more than 3,000 each day.

But against all odds, the virus's reproduction rate - the average number of cases caused by a single contagious person - is dropping: it is currently at 0.93, according to the government application Tous Anti. -Covid.

Are we therefore facing an improvement?

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Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Wednesday 11 November

A figure that varies from one region to another

We can indeed rejoice in this figure which clearly indicates an improvement in the health situation.

Very concretely, a reproduction rate of 0.93 means that 10 people infected with the coronavirus will infect only 9. These 9 will in turn contaminate only 8, and so on.

This figure is obviously an average: all patients affected by the coronavirus do not necessarily infect the same number of people.

The rate of reproduction also varies by region.

In detail, this reproduction rate is even lower in Paris and Île-de-France, where it reaches 0.8.

In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, that is to say the region most affected by the virus at present, this rate is still slightly above 1.

Several encouraging data

It is still too early to say whether this encouraging overall decline is the result of restrictions put in place in recent weeks, namely the curfew and confinement.

These figures should also be read with caution because dysfunctions have been observed in recent days in the reporting of infection data.

But other indicators confirm this trend, such as hospitalizations, which are declining nationally and which constitute reliable data.

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However, it will take several weeks for this potential improvement in the health situation to be felt at the entry into intensive care, which should therefore remain massive, as well as mortality, over the next 2 or 3 weeks.

The pressure on hospitals should therefore remain significant.