Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, October 16th (Xue Yufei) After several years of adjustments, residential transaction volume in Beijing has recently recovered.
Institutional data shows that from May to September this year, the monthly online signing of second-hand residential properties in Beijing exceeded 16,000, which is the highest point since the 2017 “317 New Deal”.
New residential transactions are relatively active, and monthly online signings have also increased.
New latitude and longitude in the data map building
Some insiders concluded that the monthly number of online signings for second-hand houses is 12,000, which is the critical point for the rise and fall of housing prices in Beijing, and prices may rise slightly when housing prices exceed 15,000.
What does the increase in the number of residential online visas in Beijing mean?
Will it cause price fluctuations?
New house transactions are not as high as last year's second-hand house transactions
Although weekends and holidays are the busiest times for real estate agency stores, in the first two days of the National Day holiday in 2020, Zhang Ping, a real estate agent in Chaoyang District, Beijing, chose to rest.
He told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client: "In the eight-day long vacation, many people have returned to their hometowns and traveled. Not many people stayed in Beijing to inspect houses. It is better to take a rest."
As Zhang Ping expected, the amount of watch in the store he was in was mediocre a few days before the National Day holiday, and as the staff returned to the city, starting from October 5th, the amount of watch in the store began to increase.
He said: "The store sold a few units during the National Day holiday, and the whole is okay, neither hot nor cold."
According to statistics compiled by the Shell Research Institute, during Beijing’s Golden Week this year (October 1-8, 2020), the transaction area of newly built residential buildings was 18,000 square meters, and the average transaction price was 48,204 yuan per square meter. Compared with October 1-7), the average daily transaction area fell 24% year-on-year, and the average transaction price rose 4.8% year-on-year.
The trading volume during the Golden Week 2020 is less than the same period last year.
According to the analysis of the Shell Research Institute, Beijing issued 7 pre-sale certificates for residential projects on the 7th before Golden Week, with an additional supply area of 420,000 square meters, 2.1 times that of the same period last year. This shows that real estate companies are facing greater pressure on financing and debt. Under the circumstances, the willingness to ship during the National Day holiday was strong, but the actual transaction situation was not as good as expected.
The reason is that, on the one hand, real estate companies have not adopted promotion measures that exceed expectations. On the other hand, customers in the Beijing market are expected to stabilize the market price in the future, so they will choose to travel and play more in the golden week of 2020, resulting in less than the overall customer volume. same time last year.
The year-on-year growth of Lianjia second-hand housing transaction volume during the National Day holiday in 2020.
Data source: Shell Research Institute
Beijing has already transitioned to a stage where second-hand housing transactions are the mainstay. Compared with the new housing market, the trading conditions of the National Day gold hand-house market on Tuesday have been significantly warmer than last year.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses in the 18 key cities monitored by it has increased by 50% over the same period last year. Among them, the transaction volume of Hangzhou and Hefei increased by more than 100%, and the transaction volume of
Beijing, Chongqing, Xi’an, Shanghai, and Guangzhou exceeded 50%.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, pointed out that the transaction data for the National Day holiday is not complete. There are only 4 days of online signing data on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. From an overall perspective, the transaction volume should be at a high level.
The cumulative number of online signings for second-hand housing has exceeded the same period last year
Extending the timeline, we can find that the number of online signings for new and second-hand houses in the Beijing market has shown a significant increase.
According to the statistics of I Love My Family Research Institute, in September 2020, a total of 17,259 sets of second-hand housing in Beijing were signed online, an increase of 7.49% from August and 40.10% from September 2019; a total of 116,297 sets of second-hand housing were signed online from January to September. This is an increase of 6% from January to September 2019, exceeding the level of the same period last year.
In recent months, from May to September this year, the monthly online signing of second-hand housing in Beijing has been maintained at more than 16,000 units, of which September was the second time this year, which exceeded 17,000 units, slightly lower than June.
I love my research institute said that from the second half of 2017 to the present, except for the last 5 months, only May 2018 and March 2019 had monthly online subscriptions exceeding 16,000.
The above-mentioned research institute stated that after Beijing entered the "stock housing era" in 2009, so far, the city's average monthly number of online signings for second-hand housing is 14,300, which means that the number of online signings in the past 5 months is higher than average. .
In terms of online signings, the level of second-hand residential transactions in Beijing from May to September was relatively high, and the market was at its best moment since the “317 New Deal” in 2017.
In terms of new houses, according to data from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in September this year, the number of online signings for ordinary residences and villas in Beijing was 4,874, an increase of about 76% compared with the 2,773 in September 2019.
Regarding the increase in transaction volume, the Shell Research Institute analyzed that since the regulation of the property market, the average price in Beijing's outer urban areas has fallen relatively sharply, and the entry barrier has been lowered, attracting rigid demand customers to enter the market.
At the same time, the relatively loose financial environment has stimulated demand. The current lending cycle continues to stabilize at 30 days, the lowest level since 2019, which is 17 days shorter than the second quarter high.
The first and second sets of average mortgage interest rates remained low and stable for four consecutive months, and the cost of funds remained low.
Zhang Dawei pointed out to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the regulation of the real estate market in Beijing has always been the benchmark for the country. After several years of strict regulation, house prices have been adjusted more obviously. There are no school districts or poorly equipped "old broken small" and suburban housing prices in urban areas. The decline is large, and the current upward trend in trading volume should be a bottoming out.
Zhang Dawei believes that the continuous supply of limited-competition housing projects in the past few years has played a significant role in the slow decline of Beijing's housing prices.
As the regulatory effect has reached expectations, the supply of restricted-competition housing is coming to an end, and the newly supplied unrestricted commercial housing plots have gradually increased. This has improved the price-performance ratio of restricted-competition housing, and the market transactions have been significantly active, driving an increase in transaction volume.
Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo Institution, also analyzed the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client. The current changes in the structure of land supply, such as the increase in the supply of unrestricted commercial housing plots, have made some people optimistic about the future housing price trend.
At the same time, the new house market is still in a state of price-for-volume exchange, which has aroused the enthusiasm of some buyers to purchase new houses, which in turn drove the transaction of second-hand houses.
Analysis said that later trading volume may continue to increase
For the follow-up market, Zhang Dawei believes that if there is no major policy adjustment, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in Beijing throughout the year is expected to continue to rise.
Guo Yi said that up to now, more than 33,000 new houses have been signed in Beijing. Based on the monthly transaction volume of several thousand sets, the annual sales volume is expected to hit a new high since the deep control in 2017.
As for the price, according to Zhang Dawei's observation, in the Beijing market, if the monthly online signing of second-hand houses is less than 12,000, the price may fall; if the number of second-hand houses exceeds 12,000, the price will remain stable; if it reaches 15,000 or more, the price will increase slightly; Over 20,000 sets, the increase will accelerate.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in May-August when the monthly online subscription volume exceeded 16,000, the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in Beijing increased by 1.8%, 0.7%, 0, and 0.7% respectively.
Zhang Dawei said that the current Beijing housing prices are in a state of slight expansion, but it is not obvious. The market is neither too hot nor too cold. As the subsequent transaction volume rises, prices may maintain a slight increase.
Guo Yi said that Beijing’s housing demand is “stabilized with a slight increase”, but the current market inventory and subsequent supply cannot support rapid price increases and will maintain a certain degree of stability in the future.
The Shell Research Institute said that the second-hand housing market is expected to naturally rebound in the fourth quarter, and there will be a traditional seasonal rebound. However, due to the impact of the epidemic disrupting the seasonal pattern of demand release, the rebound of the new housing market will be weaker than the same period last year.
With stable supply and demand sentiment and low and loose monetary conditions, the volume and prices have increased steadily throughout the year.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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