For more than two months, the French have been monitoring the number of deaths from covid-19 every day, hoping for a gradual decline. However, health authorities sometimes record jumps in the accounting of victims. For the infectiologist Anne-Claude Crémieux, the figures communicated every day do not allow a clear vision of the epidemic.

INTERVIEW

Since the start of the epidemic, the communication by the Directorate General of Health of coronavirus figures has become a daily ritual, which can sometimes be perceived as anxiety-provoking. Tuesday evening, some French people panicked to see the number of deaths occurring in 24 hours suddenly increase to 348 dead, against 70 Sunday. For Professor Anne-Claude Crémieux, infectious disease specialist at Saint-Louis hospital, guest of the program "Without appointment" on Wednesday, the time required to draw up death certificates distorts our vision of the situation.

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"We know that the number of deaths is not a photograph of the state of the epidemic day by day," said Anne-Claude Crémieux straight away. The professor mentions death certificates which can be recovered by the health authorities "several weeks" after the death of the person concerned.

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Bounces at the start of the week

This delay can be "significant", especially during weekends, which would explain the rebound in the number of deaths observed at the start of the week. Thus, on Sunday May 3 the General Directorate of Health reported 135 dead in one day, a figure which more than doubled the following day: 306 dead. Same thing between Sunday April 26 and Monday 27: the number of deaths fell from 242 to 437.

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The infectious disease specialist Anne-Claude Crémieux draws a parallel with the heat wave of 2003 during which a controversy was born around the accounting of the victims. "We tried to get a quick picture of the number of deaths in France, if only to be able to follow a health crisis." She explains that the low number of digital death certificates, of the order of 15 to 20%, had artificially reduced the scale of the crisis facing the country. "Today, one cannot consider that the number of known deaths one day reflects the situation", concludes Anne-Claude Crémieux.